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The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Battle-Scarred +24.2%Factory New -7.1%Field-Tested +33.2%Minimal Wear +16.4%Well-Worn +3.7%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Caged
SCAR-20 | Caged
3x $0.14
Bullfrog
P250 | Bullfrog
2x $0.19
Sky Mandala
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
1x $0.34
Fraise Crane
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
2x $0.35
Earth Mandala
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
1x $0.46
Warm Blooded
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
1x $0.48
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
25.0% $7.37
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
25.0% $2.52
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
10.0% $2.49
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
10.0% $0.96
Continuum
UMP-45 | Continuum
10.0% $0.93
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
10.0% $0.85
Max Win
$7.37 (+148.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.08 (+3.7%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+86.6%
Cost
$2.97
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGE
Total Cost $2.97
Ask Price EV $3.08 (+3.7%)
Bid Price EV $2.90 (-2.3%)
Ask Profit $0.11 (+3.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.07 (-2.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.18 (+6.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.11
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.07
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $7.37 (+148.0%)
Worst Case $0.83 (-72.2%)
Volatility +86.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$4.40
Avg Loss -$1.32
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.83 (-72.2%)
Std Dev $2.57
Avg Norm Float 0.4496
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 141h 40m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 02M 20S //TOTAL COST $2.97 //ASK PRICE EV $3.08 //BID PRICE EV $2.90 //ASK PROFIT $0.11 (+3.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.07 (-2.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $7.37 //VOLATILITY +86.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 5,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 5,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.31471299999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 7.367,
      "optimistic_value": 7.29,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 7.16,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:07:21.447988Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.31471299999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.5244999999999997,
      "optimistic_value": 2.5,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 2.25,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:34.263433Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.44959,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
      "realistic_value": 0.8534999999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 0.85,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
      "conservative_value": 0.83,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:31:00.709077Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.44959,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
      "realistic_value": 2.4935,
      "optimistic_value": 2.49,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
      "conservative_value": 2.2,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:16.804583Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.44959,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
      "realistic_value": 0.964,
      "optimistic_value": 0.95,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
      "conservative_value": 0.82,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T05:51:56.092922Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.44959,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
      "realistic_value": 0.827,
      "optimistic_value": 0.82,
      "output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
      "conservative_value": 0.81,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:31.056049Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.44959,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
      "realistic_value": 0.9305,
      "optimistic_value": 0.92,
      "output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
      "conservative_value": 0.82,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:07.840943Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_cbf411889977c83edaef42f7",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.14,
      "skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
      "listing_id": "526501587737469509",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:26.480430Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
      "listing_id": "524249735518496427",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:26.480430Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
      "listing_id": "492724538183335041",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:20.468133Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.2,
      "skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
      "listing_id": "518620235869812748",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:03.596949Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.26,
      "skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
      "listing_id": "505108692500795132",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:20.468133Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "503983589619270235",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:52.782325Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.35,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "492724590626378025",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:25.668054Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "501731789729082221",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:25.668054Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.46,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "529879287551276496",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:28.470121Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "518620288314051868",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.684316Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:5+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:5"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
25.0% $13.33
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
25.0% $11.82
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
10.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
10.0% $1.13
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
10.0% $1.11
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
10.0% $1.07
$13.33
+149.1%
$7.13
+33.2%
50.0%+97.1%$5.35—
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
25.0% $9.85
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
25.0% $2.14
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
10.0% $1.36
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
10.0% $0.80
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
10.0% $0.74
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
10.0% $0.73
$9.85
+256.9%
$3.43
+24.2%
25.0%+132.1%$2.76—
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
25.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
25.0% $24.63
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
10.0% $7.67
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
10.0% $2.29
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
10.0% $2.14
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
10.0% $2.05
$26.79
+115.5%
$14.47
+16.4%
50.0%+85.8%$12.43—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
20.0% $13.75
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
20.0% $11.82
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
12.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
12.0% $1.13
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
12.0% $1.11
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
12.0% $1.07
$13.75
+202.9%
$6.12
+34.9%
40.0%+116.0%$4.54—
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
45.0% $9.85
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
45.0% $2.15
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
2.0% $1.36
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
2.0% $0.80
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
2.0% $0.74
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
2.0% $0.73
$9.85
+139.7%
$5.48
+33.4%
45.0%+95.1%$4.11—
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
35.0% $9.85
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
35.0% $2.15
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
6.0% $1.36
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
6.0% $0.80
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
6.0% $0.74
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
6.0% $0.73
$9.85
+191.4%
$4.46
+31.8%
35.0%+114.9%$3.38—
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
30.0% $13.75
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
30.0% $11.82
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
8.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
8.0% $1.13
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
8.0% $1.11
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
8.0% $1.07
$13.75
+116.6%
$8.34
+31.4%
60.0%+81.0%$6.35—
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
15.0% $13.75
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
15.0% $11.82
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
14.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
14.0% $1.13
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
14.0% $1.11
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
14.0% $1.07
$13.75
+257.2%
$5.01
+30.1%
44.0%+129.8%$3.85—
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
10.0% $13.75
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
10.0% $11.82
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
16.0% $7.67
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
16.0% $2.29
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
16.0% $2.14
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
16.0% $2.05
$13.75
+198.3%
$5.14
+11.5%
36.0%+89.9%$4.61—
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
5.0% $13.75
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
5.0% $11.82
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
18.0% $7.67
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
18.0% $2.28
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
18.0% $2.14
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
18.0% $2.05
$13.75
+250.8%
$4.18
+6.7%
28.0%+88.0%$3.92—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4
Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear
Party Animal
M4A1-S | Party Animal
40.0% $158.85
Ice Coaled
AWP | Ice Coaled
20.0% $24.72
Smoking Kills
MP7 | Smoking Kills
20.0% $19.40
Mirror Mosaic
Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic
20.0% $16.72
$158.85
+114.6%
$75.71
+2.3%
40.0%+91.8%$74.03—
FS

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