The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Broken Record
2x $0.39
Focus
1x $0.40
Trigger Discipline
1x $0.58
Red Wing
1x $0.65
Warm Blooded
3x $1.26
Sky Mandala
1x $1.76
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
25.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
25.0% $24.63
Liquidation
10.0% $7.67
Cat Fight
10.0% $2.29
Angel Eyes
10.0% $2.14
Ocular
10.0% $2.05
Max Win
$26.79 (+115.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$14.47 (+16.4%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+91.5%
Cost
$12.43
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $12.43
Ask Price EV $14.47 (+16.4%)
Bid Price EV $13.52 (+8.8%)
Ask Profit $2.04 (+16.4%)
Bid Profit $1.09 (+8.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.95 (+7.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.04
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.09
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $26.79 (+115.5%)
Worst Case $2.00 (-83.9%)
Volatility +91.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$13.28
Avg Loss -$9.20
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.00 (-83.9%)
Std Dev $11.37
Avg Norm Float 0.0998
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 141h 34m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Minimal Wear
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Trigger Discipline
—
Minimal Wear
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Minimal Wear
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.26 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.76 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 02M 20S //TOTAL COST $12.43 //ASK PRICE EV $14.47 //BID PRICE EV $13.52 //ASK PROFIT $2.04 (+16.4%) //BID PROFIT $1.09 (+8.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $26.79 //VOLATILITY +91.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$26.79
+$14.36
+115.5%
$25.89
+$13.46
+108.3%
$0.90
3.3%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$24.63
+$12.20
+98.1%
$22.28
+$9.85
+79.2%
$2.35
9.5%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$7.67
-$4.76
-38.3%
$6.71
-$5.72
-46.0%
$0.96
12.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.29
-$10.14
-81.5%
$2.04
-$10.39
-83.6%
$0.25
11.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.14
-$10.29
-82.8%
$2.03
-$10.40
-83.7%
$0.11
5.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.05
-$10.38
-83.5%
$2.03
-$10.40
-83.7%
$0.02
1.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.00
-$10.43
-83.9%
$1.99
-$10.44
-84.0%
$0.01
0.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.069867,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:26.098048Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.069867,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 2.14,
"optimistic_value": 2.14,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 2.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:34.913684Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 7.667,
"optimistic_value": 7.66,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 6.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.771865Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 2.2944999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:18.346849Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 2.0505,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 2.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:20.381834Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 2,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:08:20.953130Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_cbf411889977c83edaef42f7",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "641341944860654767",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:42:02.887817Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "503983537174108975",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:39.438359Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "524249529997681095",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:42:02.887817Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-ab9a15ef8110",
"listing_id": "643593816553635061",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Trigger Discipline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab9a15ef8110.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:37:02.427705Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "514116636505205970",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:30.601154Z"
},
{
"price": 1.26,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "510738823413937978",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:43.210790Z"
},
{
"price": 1.76,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "490472790737236515",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:32.154211Z"
},
{
"price": 2.24,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "523123888072205326",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:32.513889Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472790737055183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.208125Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.208125Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:5+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Ocular 10.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 10.0% $1.07 | $13.33 +149.1% | $7.13 +33.2% | 50.0% | +97.1% | $5.35 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 25.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.14 Liquidation 10.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 10.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 10.0% $0.74 Ocular 10.0% $0.73 | $9.85 +256.9% | $3.43 +24.2% | 25.0% | +132.1% | $2.76 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 25.0% $7.37 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.52 Liquidation 10.0% $2.49 Cat Fight 10.0% $0.96 Continuum 10.0% $0.93 Angel Eyes 10.0% $0.85 | $7.37 +148.0% | $3.08 +3.7% | 25.0% | +83.2% | $2.97 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Ocular 12.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 12.0% $1.07 | $13.75 +202.9% | $6.12 +34.9% | 40.0% | +116.0% | $4.54 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.15 Liquidation 2.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 2.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 2.0% $0.74 Ocular 2.0% $0.73 | $9.85 +139.7% | $5.48 +33.4% | 45.0% | +95.1% | $4.11 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.15 Liquidation 6.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 6.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 6.0% $0.74 Ocular 6.0% $0.73 | $9.85 +191.4% | $4.46 +31.8% | 35.0% | +114.9% | $3.38 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.13 Ocular 8.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 8.0% $1.07 | $13.75 +116.6% | $8.34 +31.4% | 60.0% | +81.0% | $6.35 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Ocular 14.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 14.0% $1.07 | $13.75 +257.2% | $5.01 +30.1% | 44.0% | +129.8% | $3.85 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 10.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 16.0% $2.14 Ocular 16.0% $2.05 | $13.75 +198.3% | $5.14 +11.5% | 36.0% | +89.9% | $4.61 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 5.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $11.82 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 18.0% $2.14 Ocular 18.0% $2.05 | $13.75 +250.8% | $4.18 +6.7% | 28.0% | +88.0% | $3.92 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Party Animal  40.0% $158.85 Ice Coaled  20.0% $24.72 Smoking Kills  20.0% $19.40 Mirror Mosaic  20.0% $16.72 | $158.85 +114.6% | $75.71 +2.3% | 40.0% | +91.8% | $74.03 | — |