The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Caged
1x $0.20
Bullfrog
1x $0.26
MAGnitude
1x $0.36
Broken Record
2x $0.38
Warm Blooded
3x $0.51
Earth Mandala
2x $0.70
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
25.0% $13.33
Sleeping Potion
25.0% $11.82
Liquidation
10.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
10.0% $1.13
Ocular
10.0% $1.11
Angel Eyes
10.0% $1.07
Max Win
$13.33 (+149.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$7.13 (+33.2%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+103.4%
Cost
$5.35
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.35
Ask Price EV $7.13 (+33.2%)
Bid Price EV $6.20 (+15.8%)
Ask Profit $1.78 (+33.2%)
Bid Profit $0.85 (+15.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.93 (+17.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.78
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.85
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $13.33 (+149.1%)
Worst Case $1.07 (-79.9%)
Volatility +103.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$7.22
Avg Loss -$3.67
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.07 (-79.9%)
Std Dev $5.53
Avg Norm Float 0.2142
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 140h 42m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | MAGnitude
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 04M 30S //TOTAL COST $5.35 //ASK PRICE EV $7.13 //BID PRICE EV $6.20 //ASK PROFIT $1.78 (+33.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.85 (+15.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $13.33 //VOLATILITY +103.4% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$13.33
+$7.98
+149.1%
$12.05
+$6.70
+125.2%
$1.28
9.6%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$11.82
+$6.47
+121.0%
$9.69
+$4.34
+81.1%
$2.13
18.0%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$4.01
-$1.34
-25.0%
$3.61
-$1.74
-32.5%
$0.40
10.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.13
-$4.22
-78.9%
$1.04
-$4.31
-80.6%
$0.09
8.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.11
-$4.24
-79.2%
$1.01
-$4.34
-81.1%
$0.10
9.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.07
-$4.28
-79.9%
$1.00
-$4.35
-81.3%
$0.07
6.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.07
-$4.28
-79.9%
$0.95
-$4.40
-82.2%
$0.12
11.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.149919,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.326500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 13.05,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:08.870701Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.149919,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 11.8215,
"optimistic_value": 11.79,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.21417,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 1.0745,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:33:44.067163Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.21417,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 4.0145,
"optimistic_value": 3.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:12.174520Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.21417,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 1.1305,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T20:16:13.485553Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.21417,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 1.112,
"optimistic_value": 1.07,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:31:04.216082Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.21417,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 1.0735000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.07,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:00.416720Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_cbf411889977c83edaef42f7",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "518620235869812748",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:46.541963Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "505108692500795132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:34:16.230275Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-e8947585ba24",
"listing_id": "506235389469351588",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8947585ba24.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:24.228737Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "512990736599427227",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:24.557843Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "641341944860654767",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:24.557843Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "503983589619183691",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:56.079211Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "494976390476381946",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:56.079211Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "518620288313571268",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:57.798287Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "499479989895637069",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:57.798287Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "496102290328584671",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:53.056487Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:5+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 25.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.14 Liquidation 10.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 10.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 10.0% $0.74 Ocular 10.0% $0.73 | $9.85 +256.9% | $3.43 +24.2% | 25.0% | +132.1% | $2.76 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 25.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $24.63 Liquidation 10.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 10.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 10.0% $2.14 Ocular 10.0% $2.05 | $26.79 +115.5% | $14.47 +16.4% | 50.0% | +85.8% | $12.43 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 25.0% $7.37 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.52 Liquidation 10.0% $2.49 Cat Fight 10.0% $0.96 Continuum 10.0% $0.93 Angel Eyes 10.0% $0.85 | $7.37 +148.0% | $3.08 +3.7% | 25.0% | +83.2% | $2.97 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.13 Ocular 8.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 8.0% $1.07 | $12.78 +108.1% | $8.05 +31.1% | 60.0% | +79.5% | $6.14 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Liquidation 6.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 6.0% $1.13 Ocular 6.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 6.0% $1.07 | $13.33 +86.9% | $9.30 +30.5% | 70.0% | +65.3% | $7.13 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Ocular 14.0% $1.19 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Continuum 14.0% $1.08 | $12.78 +238.9% | $4.88 +29.4% | 44.0% | +126.1% | $3.77 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 10.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 16.0% $2.14 Ocular 16.0% $2.05 | $13.33 +189.1% | $5.10 +10.6% | 36.0% | +88.1% | $4.61 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 5.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $11.82 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 18.0% $2.14 Ocular 18.0% $2.05 | $12.78 +225.9% | $4.14 +5.5% | 28.0% | +84.8% | $3.92 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Party Animal  40.0% $158.85 Ice Coaled  20.0% $24.72 Smoking Kills  20.0% $19.40 Mirror Mosaic  20.0% $17.23 | $158.85 +116.3% | $75.81 +3.2% | 40.0% | +92.4% | $73.45 | — |