The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Red Wing
1x $0.13
Caged
3x $0.14
Bullfrog
1x $0.19
Sky Mandala
2x $0.34
Fraise Crane
2x $0.35
Earth Mandala
1x $0.46
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
25.0% $9.85
Sleeping Potion
25.0% $2.14
Liquidation
10.0% $1.36
Cat Fight
10.0% $0.80
Angel Eyes
10.0% $0.74
Ocular
10.0% $0.73
Max Win
$9.85 (+256.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.43 (+24.2%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+135.8%
Cost
$2.76
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.76
Ask Price EV $3.43 (+24.2%)
Bid Price EV $2.53 (-8.4%)
Ask Profit $0.67 (+24.2%)
Bid Profit $-0.23 (-8.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.90 (+32.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.67
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.23
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $9.85 (+256.9%)
Worst Case $0.66 (-75.9%)
Volatility +135.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$7.09
Avg Loss -$1.47
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.66 (-75.9%)
Std Dev $3.75
Avg Norm Float 0.5497
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 142h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 02M 20S //TOTAL COST $2.76 //ASK PRICE EV $3.43 //BID PRICE EV $2.53 //ASK PROFIT $0.67 (+24.2%) //BID PROFIT $-0.23 (-8.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $9.85 //VOLATILITY +135.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID
25.0%
$9.85
+$7.09
+256.9%
$6.64
+$3.88
+140.6%
$3.21
32.6%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$2.14
-$0.62
-22.4%
$1.99
-$0.77
-27.9%
$0.15
7.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.36
-$1.40
-50.7%
$1.17
-$1.59
-57.6%
$0.19
14.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.80
-$1.96
-70.9%
$0.66
-$2.10
-76.1%
$0.14
17.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.74
-$2.02
-73.2%
$0.63
-$2.13
-77.2%
$0.11
14.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.73
-$2.03
-73.4%
$0.62
-$2.14
-77.5%
$0.11
15.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.66
-$2.10
-75.9%
$0.64
-$2.12
-76.8%
$0.02
3.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.384762,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 9.8505,
"optimistic_value": 9.77,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:35.960617Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.384762,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.1420000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:38:40.539403Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.54966,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 0.74,
"optimistic_value": 0.74,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 0.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T20:59:55.865803Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.54966,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 1.3605,
"optimistic_value": 1.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 1.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:14.514541Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.54966,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 0.8035,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T16:04:54.060260Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.54966,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 0.7334999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:32.422177Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.54966,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 0.664,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:35.576623Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_cbf411889977c83edaef42f7",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "499479989896194637",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:39.472241Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "526501587737469509",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:26.480430Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "524249735518496427",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:26.480430Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "492724538183335041",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:20.468133Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "518620235869812748",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:03.596949Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "503983589619270235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:52.782325Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "492724590626378025",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:25.668054Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "501731789729082221",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:25.668054Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "508487189339587610",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:52.782325Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "529879287551276496",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:28.470121Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:5+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Ocular 10.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 10.0% $1.07 | $13.33 +149.1% | $7.13 +33.2% | 50.0% | +97.1% | $5.35 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 25.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $24.63 Liquidation 10.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 10.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 10.0% $2.14 Ocular 10.0% $2.05 | $26.79 +115.5% | $14.47 +16.4% | 50.0% | +85.8% | $12.43 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 25.0% $7.37 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.52 Liquidation 10.0% $2.49 Cat Fight 10.0% $0.96 Continuum 10.0% $0.93 Angel Eyes 10.0% $0.85 | $7.37 +148.0% | $3.08 +3.7% | 25.0% | +83.2% | $2.97 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Ocular 12.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 12.0% $1.07 | $13.75 +202.9% | $6.12 +34.9% | 40.0% | +116.0% | $4.54 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.15 Liquidation 2.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 2.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 2.0% $0.74 Ocular 2.0% $0.73 | $9.85 +139.7% | $5.48 +33.4% | 45.0% | +95.1% | $4.11 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.15 Liquidation 6.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 6.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 6.0% $0.74 Ocular 6.0% $0.73 | $9.85 +191.4% | $4.46 +31.8% | 35.0% | +114.9% | $3.38 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.13 Ocular 8.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 8.0% $1.07 | $13.75 +116.6% | $8.34 +31.4% | 60.0% | +81.0% | $6.35 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Ocular 14.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 14.0% $1.07 | $13.75 +257.2% | $5.01 +30.1% | 44.0% | +129.8% | $3.85 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 10.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 16.0% $2.14 Ocular 16.0% $2.05 | $13.75 +198.3% | $5.14 +11.5% | 36.0% | +89.9% | $4.61 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 5.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $11.82 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 18.0% $2.14 Ocular 18.0% $2.05 | $13.75 +250.8% | $4.18 +6.7% | 28.0% | +88.0% | $3.92 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Party Animal  40.0% $158.85 Ice Coaled  20.0% $24.72 Smoking Kills  20.0% $19.40 Mirror Mosaic  20.0% $16.72 | $158.85 +114.6% | $75.71 +2.3% | 40.0% | +91.8% | $74.03 | — |