The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4
Restricted → Classified FN 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Inputs
Urban Sovereign
2x $9.91
Amberline
3x $10.83
Galigator
1x $11.30
Random Access
1x $4.96
Core Breach
3x $8.48
↓
Possible Outputs
Control Panel
20.0% $418.56
Crane Flight
20.0% $150.19
Remote Control
20.0% $94.77
Deathgaze
20.0% $40.06
Kintsugi
20.0% $38.39
Max Win
$418.56 (+259.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$148.39 (+27.3%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+121.1%
Cost
$116.60
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $116.60
Ask Price EV $148.39 (+27.3%)
Bid Price EV $129.82 (+11.3%)
Ask Profit $31.79 (+27.3%)
Bid Profit $13.22 (+11.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $18.57 (+15.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$31.79
Bid Slippage Buffer +$13.22
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $418.56 (+259.0%)
Worst Case $38.39 (-67.1%)
Volatility +121.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$167.77
Avg Loss -$58.86
Bottom 5% Outcome $38.39 (-67.1%)
Std Dev $141.21
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 143h 5m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$9.91 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Factory New
$10.83 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Factory New
$11.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Factory New
$14.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Factory New
$14.50 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$16.24 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Random Access
—
Minimal Wear
$4.96 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Core Breach
—
Minimal Wear
$8.48 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Core Breach
—
Minimal Wear
$11.38 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Core Breach
—
Minimal Wear
$15.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 44M 15S //TOTAL COST $116.60 //ASK PRICE EV $148.39 //BID PRICE EV $129.82 //ASK PROFIT $31.79 (+27.3%) //BID PROFIT $13.22 (+11.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $418.56 //VOLATILITY +121.1% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$418.56
+$301.96
+259.0%
$347.00
+$230.40
+197.6%
$71.56
17.1%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$150.19
+$33.59
+28.8%
$135.90
+$19.30
+16.6%
$14.29
9.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$94.77
-$21.83
-18.7%
$91.00
-$25.60
-22.0%
$3.77
4.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$40.06
-$76.54
-65.6%
$37.69
-$78.91
-67.7%
$2.37
5.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$38.39
-$78.22
-67.1%
$37.52
-$79.08
-67.8%
$0.86
2.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Restricted|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-88c0ba610062",
"realistic_value": 418.555,
"optimistic_value": 404.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Control Panel",
"conservative_value": 347,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Control Panel (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:52:53.377791Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-88c0ba610062.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c7e68ecd7321",
"realistic_value": 94.772,
"optimistic_value": 94.45,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Remote Control",
"conservative_value": 91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Remote Control (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:33:20.090175Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c7e68ecd7321.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 150.193,
"optimistic_value": 149.22,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 135.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:42.904333Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 38.385,
"optimistic_value": 38,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 37.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:22.658800Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 40.0565,
"optimistic_value": 39.99,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 37.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:26:46.819573Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ca98947dd59cececb84f1c08",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 9.91,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "498354089952010723",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:36:29.812063Z"
},
{
"price": 10.83,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "509613036860694387",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:00.785032Z"
},
{
"price": 11.3,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "499479989896872661",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:53.281113Z"
},
{
"price": 14,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "511864723318846929",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:00.785032Z"
},
{
"price": 14.5,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "511864836538367625",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:00.785032Z"
},
{
"price": 16.24,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "527627487624081752",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:36:29.812063Z"
},
{
"price": 4.96,
"skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
"listing_id": "501730992858829421",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Random Access",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:36:21.411267Z"
},
{
"price": 8.48,
"skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"listing_id": "527627487623696372",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:32.295983Z"
},
{
"price": 11.38,
"skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"listing_id": "526501535293776293",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:32.295983Z"
},
{
"price": 15,
"skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"listing_id": "520871291144517480",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:32.295983Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:6+collection-set-nuke-2:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 20.0% $35.39 Control Panel 20.0% $26.29 Kintsugi 20.0% $10.71 Deathgaze 20.0% $8.84 Remote Control 20.0% $4.11 | $35.39 +152.1% | $17.07 +21.6% | 40.0% | +84.1% | $14.04 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel 15.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 23.3% $150.19 Remote Control 15.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 23.3% $40.34 Kintsugi 23.3% $38.39 | $418.56 +305.3% | $130.41 +26.3% | 38.3% | +124.8% | $103.27 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel 25.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 16.7% $150.19 Remote Control 25.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 16.7% $40.34 Kintsugi 16.7% $38.39 | $418.56 +213.8% | $166.49 +24.8% | 41.7% | +112.7% | $133.40 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel 10.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 26.7% $150.19 Remote Control 10.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 26.7% $40.06 Kintsugi 26.7% $38.39 | $418.56 +364.1% | $112.30 +24.5% | 46.7% | +124.7% | $90.18 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel 30.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 13.3% $150.19 Remote Control 30.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 13.3% $40.06 Kintsugi 13.3% $38.39 | $418.56 +177.6% | $184.48 +22.4% | 30.0% | +104.1% | $150.78 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 30.0% $35.39 Control Panel 5.0% $26.29 Kintsugi 30.0% $10.71 Deathgaze 30.0% $10.04 Remote Control 5.0% $4.11 | $35.39 +134.2% | $18.36 +21.5% | 35.0% | +77.9% | $15.11 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 10.0% $35.39 Control Panel 35.0% $26.29 Kintsugi 10.0% $10.58 Deathgaze 10.0% $10.04 Remote Control 35.0% $4.11 | $35.39 +158.5% | $16.24 +18.6% | 45.0% | +83.5% | $13.69 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel 40.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 6.7% $150.19 Remote Control 40.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 6.7% $40.06 Kintsugi 6.7% $38.39 | $418.56 +110.9% | $220.57 +11.2% | 40.0% | +82.4% | $198.43 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel 45.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 3.3% $150.19 Remote Control 45.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 3.3% $40.34 Kintsugi 3.3% $38.39 | $418.56 +86.3% | $238.63 +6.2% | 45.0% | +72.8% | $224.69 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 23.3% $4.51 Electrum  6.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden  23.3% $3.34 Firebreathing  6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.94 | $4.51 +98.8% | $2.95 +29.8% | 58.7% | +39.1% | $2.27 | — |