The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4

Restricted → Classified MW 10 items

Factory New +26.3%Field-Tested +21.9%Minimal Wear -3.7%Well-Worn -16.3%

Contract

Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear

Inputs

Urban Sovereign

1x $3.24

Amberline

2x $3.25

Galigator

3x $3.37

Core Breach

3x $1.51

Random Access

1x $4.96

↓

Possible Outputs

Control Panel

20.0% $64.30

Crane Flight

20.0% $60.44

Deathgaze

20.0% $17.37

Kintsugi

20.0% $17.29

Remote Control

20.0% $10.80

Max Win

$64.30 (+81.9%)

EV (ROI %)

$34.04 (-3.7%)

Win %

40.0%

Volatility

+65.9%

Cost

$35.35

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $35.35

Ask Price EV $34.04 (-3.7%)

Bid Price EV $32.63 (-7.7%)

Ask Profit $-1.31 (-3.7%)

Bid Profit $-2.72 (-7.7%)

Liquidity Gap $1.41 (+4.0%)

Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.31

Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.72

Risk

Win Probability 40.0%

Loss Probability 60.0%

Best Case $64.30 (+81.9%)

Worst Case $10.80 (-69.4%)

Volatility +65.9%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%

Avg Win +$27.02

Avg Loss -$20.19

Bottom 5% Outcome $10.80 (-69.4%)

Std Dev $23.28

Avg Norm Float 0.1499

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 16m

Oldest Output Price 143h 51m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

—

Minimal Wear

$3.24 Float: HIDDEN

MP7 | Amberline

—

Minimal Wear

$3.25 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Galigator

—

Minimal Wear

$3.37 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Galigator

—

Minimal Wear

$3.60 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Galigator

—

Minimal Wear

$4.11 Float: HIDDEN

MP7 | Amberline

—

Minimal Wear

$4.37 Float: HIDDEN

MAG-7 | Core Breach

—

Field-Tested

$1.51 Float: HIDDEN

MAG-7 | Core Breach

—

Field-Tested

$3.30 Float: HIDDEN

MAG-7 | Core Breach

—

Field-Tested

$3.64 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Random Access

—

Minimal Wear

$4.96 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 40S //TOTAL COST $35.35 //ASK PRICE EV $34.04 //BID PRICE EV $32.63 //ASK PROFIT $-1.31 (-3.7%) //BID PROFIT $-2.72 (-7.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $64.30 //VOLATILITY +65.9% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Restricted|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.14995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-88c0ba610062",
      "realistic_value": 64.2955,
      "optimistic_value": 63.48,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Control Panel",
      "conservative_value": 62.02,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Control Panel (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:49.580807Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-88c0ba610062.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.14995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-c7e68ecd7321",
      "realistic_value": 10.801499999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 10.77,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Remote Control",
      "conservative_value": 10.44,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Remote Control (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:36:42.016262Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c7e68ecd7321.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.14995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
      "realistic_value": 60.4355,
      "optimistic_value": 59.76,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
      "conservative_value": 56.5,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:07:33.404330Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.14995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
      "realistic_value": 17.291999999999998,
      "optimistic_value": 17.18,
      "output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
      "conservative_value": 17.14,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:45:05.333106Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.14995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
      "realistic_value": 17.374,
      "optimistic_value": 17.36,
      "output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
      "conservative_value": 17.03,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:47:24.307136Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_ca98947dd59cececb84f1c08",
  "input_rarity": "Restricted",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 3.24,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "528753387757681245",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:36:59.894581Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.25,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "512990789045159735",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:55.685903Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
      "listing_id": "505109489449177400",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:36.787835Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.6,
      "skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
      "listing_id": "493850490548948764",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:36.787835Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.11,
      "skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
      "listing_id": "496102124624627759",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:36.787835Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "517494336189609250",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:55.685903Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.51,
      "skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
      "listing_id": "525375688036787623",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:45:00.311793Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.3,
      "skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
      "listing_id": "651473775094125582",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:45:00.311793Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.64,
      "skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
      "listing_id": "641337509164734124",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:45:00.311793Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.96,
      "skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
      "listing_id": "501730992858829421",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "AUG | Random Access",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:49:44.468501Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Classified",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:6+collection-set-nuke-2:4"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Control Panel 20.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 20.0% $150.19 Remote Control 20.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 20.0% $40.34 Kintsugi 20.0% $38.39	$418.56 +256.0%	$148.45 +26.3%	40.0%	+120.1%	$117.56	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested	Crane Flight 20.0% $35.39 Control Panel 20.0% $26.29 Kintsugi 20.0% $10.58 Deathgaze 20.0% $9.77 Remote Control 20.0% $4.11	$35.39 +150.4%	$17.23 +21.9%	40.0%	+82.8%	$14.13	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Control Panel 15.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 23.3% $150.19 Remote Control 15.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 23.3% $40.34 Kintsugi 23.3% $38.39	$418.56 +306.6%	$130.41 +26.7%	38.3%	+125.2%	$102.95	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Control Panel 25.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 16.7% $150.19 Remote Control 25.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 16.7% $40.34 Kintsugi 16.7% $38.39	$418.56 +216.6%	$166.49 +25.9%	41.7%	+113.7%	$132.21	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Control Panel 10.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 26.7% $150.19 Remote Control 10.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 26.7% $40.34 Kintsugi 26.7% $38.39	$418.56 +356.8%	$112.38 +22.6%	46.7%	+122.7%	$91.63	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Control Panel 30.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 13.3% $150.19 Remote Control 30.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 13.3% $40.34 Kintsugi 13.3% $38.39	$418.56 +175.5%	$184.52 +21.5%	30.0%	+103.3%	$151.90	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested	Crane Flight 10.0% $35.39 Control Panel 35.0% $26.29 Kintsugi 10.0% $10.58 Deathgaze 10.0% $9.77 Remote Control 35.0% $4.11	$35.39 +157.6%	$16.21 +18.0%	45.0%	+83.3%	$13.74	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Control Panel 5.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 30.0% $150.19 Remote Control 5.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 30.0% $40.34 Kintsugi 30.0% $38.39	$418.56 +416.3%	$94.34 +16.4%	40.0%	+110.4%	$81.07	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Control Panel 40.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 6.7% $150.19 Remote Control 40.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 6.7% $40.34 Kintsugi 6.7% $38.39	$418.56 +110.9%	$220.59 +11.2%	40.0%	+82.4%	$198.43	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Control Panel 45.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 3.3% $150.19 Remote Control 45.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 3.3% $40.34 Kintsugi 3.3% $38.39	$418.56 +86.3%	$238.63 +6.2%	45.0%	+72.8%	$224.69	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Random Access 20.0% $4.51 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 20.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.95	$4.51 +103.3%	$2.90 +30.8%	56.0%	+40.0%	$2.22	—