The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4

Restricted → Classified FT 10 items

Factory New +26.3%Field-Tested +21.9%Minimal Wear -3.7%Well-Worn -16.3%

Contract

Restricted → Classified Field-Tested

Inputs

Amberline

6x $1.19

Random Access

3x $1.18

Core Breach

1x $1.51

↓

Possible Outputs

Crane Flight

20.0% $35.39

Control Panel

20.0% $26.29

Kintsugi

20.0% $10.58

Deathgaze

20.0% $9.77

Remote Control

20.0% $4.11

Max Win

$35.39 (+150.4%)

EV (ROI %)

$17.23 (+21.9%)

Win %

40.0%

Volatility

+82.8%

Cost

$14.13

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $14.13

Ask Price EV $17.23 (+21.9%)

Bid Price EV $15.94 (+12.8%)

Ask Profit $3.10 (+21.9%)

Bid Profit $1.81 (+12.8%)

Liquidity Gap $1.29 (+9.1%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.10

Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.81

Risk

Win Probability 40.0%

Loss Probability 60.0%

Best Case $35.39 (+150.4%)

Worst Case $4.11 (-70.9%)

Volatility +82.8%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%

Avg Win +$16.71

Avg Loss -$5.98

Bottom 5% Outcome $4.11 (-70.9%)

Std Dev $11.69

Avg Norm Float 0.3795

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 14m

Oldest Output Price 143h 48m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

MP7 | Amberline

—

Battle-Scarred

$1.19 Float: HIDDEN

MP7 | Amberline

—

Well-Worn

$1.30 Float: HIDDEN

MP7 | Amberline

—

Well-Worn

$1.35 Float: HIDDEN

MP7 | Amberline

—

Well-Worn

$1.45 Float: HIDDEN

MP7 | Amberline

—

Well-Worn

$1.62 Float: HIDDEN

MP7 | Amberline

—

Field-Tested

$1.89 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Random Access

—

Field-Tested

$1.18 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Random Access

—

Field-Tested

$1.30 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Random Access

—

Field-Tested

$1.34 Float: HIDDEN

MAG-7 | Core Breach

—

Field-Tested

$1.51 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 41S //TOTAL COST $14.13 //ASK PRICE EV $17.23 //BID PRICE EV $15.94 //ASK PROFIT $3.10 (+21.9%) //BID PROFIT $1.81 (+12.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $35.39 //VOLATILITY +82.8% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Restricted|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.37947,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-88c0ba610062",
      "realistic_value": 26.2865,
      "optimistic_value": 26.15,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Control Panel",
      "conservative_value": 25.56,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Control Panel (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:05:34.848474Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-88c0ba610062.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.37947,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-c7e68ecd7321",
      "realistic_value": 4.109,
      "optimistic_value": 4.06,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Remote Control",
      "conservative_value": 3.64,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Remote Control (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:58.543611Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c7e68ecd7321.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.37947,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
      "realistic_value": 35.3885,
      "optimistic_value": 35,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
      "conservative_value": 32.98,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:07:39.352821Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.37947,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
      "realistic_value": 10.577,
      "optimistic_value": 10.5,
      "output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
      "conservative_value": 8.77,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Kintsugi (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:29:53.884293Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.37947,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
      "realistic_value": 9.7735,
      "optimistic_value": 9.56,
      "output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
      "conservative_value": 8.74,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:27:31.419350Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_ca98947dd59cececb84f1c08",
  "input_rarity": "Restricted",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 1.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "519746188258617308",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:25.528648Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.3,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "518620288314171424",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:24.887145Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.35,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "526501587737264489",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:24.887145Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.45,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "524249735517981555",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:24.887145Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.62,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "505109437005486308",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:24.887145Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.89,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "490472790737652387",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:53:11.638714Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
      "listing_id": "506235389469748704",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "AUG | Random Access",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:53:01.528447Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.3,
      "skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
      "listing_id": "502856892585158716",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "AUG | Random Access",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:53:01.528447Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
      "listing_id": "515241791655881677",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "AUG | Random Access",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:53:01.528447Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.51,
      "skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
      "listing_id": "525375688036787623",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:45:00.311793Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Classified",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:6+collection-set-nuke-2:4"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Control Panel 20.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 20.0% $150.19 Remote Control 20.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 20.0% $40.34 Kintsugi 20.0% $38.39	$418.56 +256.0%	$148.45 +26.3%	40.0%	+120.1%	$117.56	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Control Panel 15.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 23.3% $150.19 Remote Control 15.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 23.3% $40.34 Kintsugi 23.3% $38.39	$418.56 +306.6%	$130.41 +26.7%	38.3%	+125.2%	$102.95	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Control Panel 25.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 16.7% $150.19 Remote Control 25.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 16.7% $40.34 Kintsugi 16.7% $38.39	$418.56 +216.6%	$166.49 +25.9%	41.7%	+113.7%	$132.21	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Control Panel 10.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 26.7% $150.19 Remote Control 10.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 26.7% $40.34 Kintsugi 26.7% $38.39	$418.56 +356.8%	$112.38 +22.6%	46.7%	+122.7%	$91.63	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Control Panel 30.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 13.3% $150.19 Remote Control 30.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 13.3% $40.34 Kintsugi 13.3% $38.39	$418.56 +175.5%	$184.52 +21.5%	30.0%	+103.3%	$151.90	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested	Crane Flight 10.0% $35.39 Control Panel 35.0% $26.29 Kintsugi 10.0% $10.58 Deathgaze 10.0% $9.77 Remote Control 35.0% $4.11	$35.39 +157.6%	$16.21 +18.0%	45.0%	+83.3%	$13.74	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Control Panel 5.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 30.0% $150.19 Remote Control 5.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 30.0% $40.34 Kintsugi 30.0% $38.39	$418.56 +416.3%	$94.34 +16.4%	40.0%	+110.4%	$81.07	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Control Panel 40.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 6.7% $150.19 Remote Control 40.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 6.7% $40.34 Kintsugi 6.7% $38.39	$418.56 +110.9%	$220.59 +11.2%	40.0%	+82.4%	$198.43	—
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Control Panel 45.0% $418.56 Crane Flight 3.3% $150.19 Remote Control 45.0% $94.77 Deathgaze 3.3% $40.34 Kintsugi 3.3% $38.39	$418.56 +86.3%	$238.63 +6.2%	45.0%	+72.8%	$224.69	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Random Access 20.0% $4.51 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 20.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.95	$4.51 +103.3%	$2.90 +30.8%	56.0%	+40.0%	$2.22	—