The Prisma 2 Collection ×8+The Fracture Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Desert Strike
1x $0.27
Distressed
7x $0.28
Gnarled
2x $0.29
↓
Possible Outputs
Fever Dream
16.0% $8.04
Acid Etched
16.0% $5.54
Apocalypto
16.0% $4.36
Darkwing
16.0% $3.78
Enforcer
16.0% $3.25
Monster Call
4.0% $2.47
Max Win
$8.04 (+114.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.45 (+19.0%)
Win %
64.0%
Volatility
+50.1%
Cost
$3.74
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.74
Ask Price EV $4.45 (+19.0%)
Bid Price EV $3.77 (+0.9%)
Ask Profit $0.71 (+19.0%)
Bid Profit $0.03 (+0.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.68 (+18.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.71
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.03
Risk
Win Probability 64.0%
Loss Probability 36.0%
Best Case $8.04 (+114.9%)
Worst Case $2.00 (-46.5%)
Volatility +50.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$1.69
Avg Loss -$1.03
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.23 (-40.4%)
Std Dev $1.87
Avg Norm Float 0.1500
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 26m
Oldest Output Price 152h 7m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Desert Strike
—
Field-Tested
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Field-Tested
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Field-Tested
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Field-Tested
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Field-Tested
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Minimal Wear
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Minimal Wear
$0.55 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 47M 23S //TOTAL COST $3.74 //ASK PRICE EV $4.45 //BID PRICE EV $3.77 //ASK PROFIT $0.71 (+19.0%) //BID PROFIT $0.03 (+0.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 64.0% //BEST CASE $8.04 //VOLATILITY +50.1% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.0%
$8.04
+$4.30
+114.9%
$7.38
+$3.64
+97.3%
$0.66
8.2%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$5.54
+$1.80
+48.2%
$4.68
+$0.94
+25.1%
$0.86
15.5%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$4.36
+$0.62
+16.5%
$3.34
-$0.40
-10.7%
$1.02
23.3%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$3.78
+$0.04
+1.2%
$3.19
-$0.55
-14.7%
$0.59
15.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$3.25
-$0.49
-13.1%
$2.62
-$1.12
-29.9%
$0.63
19.4%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$2.47
-$1.27
-33.9%
$2.11
-$1.63
-43.6%
$0.36
14.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$2.38
-$1.36
-36.4%
$1.97
-$1.77
-47.3%
$0.41
17.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$2.28
-$1.46
-39.0%
$1.84
-$1.90
-50.8%
$0.44
19.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$2.23
-$1.51
-40.4%
$1.95
-$1.79
-47.9%
$0.28
12.6%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$2.00
-$1.74
-46.5%
$1.62
-$2.12
-56.7%
$0.38
19.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 5.541,
"optimistic_value": 5.45,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 4.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T20:21:10.414344Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 3.2505,
"optimistic_value": 3.24,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:32:20.126787Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 3.784,
"optimistic_value": 3.77,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 3.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:24:33.889591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.10797839999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 8.0375,
"optimistic_value": 7.53,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 7.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:32:39.583432Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 4.357,
"optimistic_value": 3.79,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T19:14:02.736841Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.119976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 2.2305,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 1.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:58:17.794467Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.14997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 1.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Allure (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:11:49.798269Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.14997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 2.4739999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 2.46,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 2.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:10:03.152892Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.119976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 2,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:19:45.241887Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.14997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 2.3775,
"optimistic_value": 2.36,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 1.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:21:57.758157Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c9ed2e8439759d6cde4169dd",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-d536309c3714",
"listing_id": "520872088107230916",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d536309c3714.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:22:41.863530Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "493850438107893880",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:20:08.782502Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "496101493276070891",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:20:08.782502Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "523123091047708294",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:20:08.782502Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "501730992868715561",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:20:08.782502Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "518620122757916680",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:20:05.048419Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "490472625092404815",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:20:05.048419Z"
},
{
"price": 0.55,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "507360492284530429",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:20:05.048419Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "524249840859622467",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:19.435720Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "502857524065038184",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:19.435720Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-25:8+collection-set-community-26:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×8+The Fracture Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Fever Dream 16.0% $18.94 Acid Etched 16.0% $17.96 Darkwing 16.0% $13.75 Brother 4.0% $11.85 Apocalypto 16.0% $11.36 Enforcer 16.0% $11.21 | $18.94 +46.0% | $13.28 +2.4% | 48.0% | +24.4% | $12.97 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Fracture Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Fever Dream 8.0% $18.94 Acid Etched 8.0% $17.96 Darkwing 8.0% $13.75 Brother 12.0% $11.85 Apocalypto 8.0% $11.36 Enforcer 8.0% $11.21 | $18.94 +119.4% | $10.56 +22.4% | 52.0% | +38.6% | $8.63 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Fracture Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Fever Dream 12.0% $18.94 Acid Etched 12.0% $17.96 Darkwing 12.0% $13.75 Brother 8.0% $11.85 Apocalypto 12.0% $11.36 Enforcer 12.0% $11.21 | $18.94 +93.2% | $11.92 +21.7% | 68.0% | +33.5% | $9.80 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×7+The Fracture Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Fever Dream 14.0% $8.04 Acid Etched 14.0% $5.54 Apocalypto 14.0% $4.36 Darkwing 14.0% $3.82 Enforcer 14.0% $3.25 Monster Call 6.0% $2.47 | $8.04 +129.6% | $4.18 +19.5% | 56.0% | +46.6% | $3.50 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Fracture Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Fever Dream 6.0% $18.94 Acid Etched 6.0% $17.96 Darkwing 6.0% $13.75 Brother 14.0% $11.85 Apocalypto 6.0% $11.36 Enforcer 6.0% $11.21 | $18.94 +128.7% | $9.88 +19.4% | 44.0% | +39.1% | $8.28 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Fracture Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Fever Dream 10.0% $18.94 Acid Etched 10.0% $17.96 Darkwing 10.0% $13.75 Brother 10.0% $11.85 Apocalypto 10.0% $11.36 Enforcer 10.0% $11.21 | $18.94 +100.6% | $11.24 +19.1% | 60.0% | +35.3% | $9.44 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Fracture Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Fever Dream 4.0% $18.94 Acid Etched 4.0% $17.96 Darkwing 4.0% $13.75 Brother 16.0% $11.85 Apocalypto 4.0% $11.36 Enforcer 4.0% $11.21 | $18.94 +133.2% | $9.21 +13.4% | 52.0% | +37.2% | $8.12 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Fracture Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Phantom Disruptor  6.7% $30.48 Tooth Fairy  26.7% $19.65 Vogue  26.7% $16.88 Disco Tech  6.7% $13.93 Justice  6.7% $10.32 Entombed  26.7% $9.36 | $30.48 +113.0% | $15.88 +11.0% | 60.0% | +39.5% | $14.31 | — |