The Prisma 2 Collection ×8+The Fracture Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Distressed
4x $0.51
Tom Cat
3x $1.10
Bone Forged
1x $1.67
Gnarled
1x $0.39
Ol' Rusty
1x $1.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Fever Dream
16.0% $18.94
Acid Etched
16.0% $17.96
Darkwing
16.0% $13.75
Brother
4.0% $11.85
Apocalypto
16.0% $11.36
Enforcer
16.0% $11.21
Max Win
$18.94 (+57.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$13.28 (+10.3%)
Win %
48.0%
Volatility
+34.2%
Cost
$12.04
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $12.04
Ask Price EV $13.28 (+10.3%)
Bid Price EV $10.61 (-11.9%)
Ask Profit $1.24 (+10.3%)
Bid Profit $-1.43 (-11.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.67 (+22.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.24
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.43
Risk
Win Probability 48.0%
Loss Probability 52.0%
Best Case $18.94 (+57.3%)
Worst Case $4.78 (-60.3%)
Volatility +34.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 16.0%
Avg Win +$4.84
Avg Loss -$2.08
Bottom 5% Outcome $6.52 (-45.8%)
Std Dev $4.12
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 153h 16m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Minimal Wear
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Minimal Wear
$0.55 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Minimal Wear
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$1.10 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Bone Forged
—
Factory New
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Factory New
$2.44 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Factory New
$3.23 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Factory New
$1.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 50M 32S //TOTAL COST $12.04 //ASK PRICE EV $13.28 //BID PRICE EV $10.61 //ASK PROFIT $1.24 (+10.3%) //BID PROFIT $-1.43 (-11.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 48.0% //BEST CASE $18.94 //VOLATILITY +34.2% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.0%
$18.94
+$6.90
+57.3%
$15.04
+$3.00
+24.9%
$3.90
20.6%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$17.96
+$5.92
+49.1%
$14.21
+$2.17
+18.0%
$3.75
20.9%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$13.75
+$1.71
+14.2%
$11.40
-$0.64
-5.3%
$2.35
17.1%
—
LOSS THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$11.85
-$0.19
-1.6%
$6.76
-$5.28
-43.9%
$5.09
43.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$11.36
-$0.68
-5.7%
$8.88
-$3.16
-26.2%
$2.48
21.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$11.21
-$0.83
-6.9%
$8.97
-$3.07
-25.5%
$2.24
20.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$8.28
-$3.76
-31.3%
$7.96
-$4.08
-33.9%
$0.32
3.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$7.80
-$4.24
-35.2%
$6.87
-$5.17
-42.9%
$0.93
12.0%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$6.52
-$5.52
-45.8%
$5.60
-$6.44
-53.5%
$0.92
14.1%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$4.78
-$7.26
-60.3%
$3.99
-$8.05
-66.9%
$0.79
16.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 17.957,
"optimistic_value": 17.04,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 14.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:25:44.737410Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 11.2055,
"optimistic_value": 11.09,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 8.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:20.051836Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 13.746,
"optimistic_value": 13.34,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 11.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T12:00:17.131456Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.050378400000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 18.937,
"optimistic_value": 18.44,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 15.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:39.589633Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 11.3575,
"optimistic_value": 10.5,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 8.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:17:58.762876Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.055976000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 6.522,
"optimistic_value": 6.48,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 5.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:20.836726Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 7.8045,
"optimistic_value": 7.5,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 6.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T15:24:36.328906Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 8.2765,
"optimistic_value": 8,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 7.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:45.499118Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.055976000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 4.779,
"optimistic_value": 4.66,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 3.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:19.136913Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 11.8515,
"optimistic_value": 11.33,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 6.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T19:03:13.729438Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c9ed2e8439759d6cde4169dd",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "518620122757916680",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:07.332163Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "490472625092404815",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:07.332163Z"
},
{
"price": 0.55,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "507360492284530429",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:07.332163Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "510738192173824270",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:07.332163Z"
},
{
"price": 1.1,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "648097416170940020",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:33:59.493426Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-3c54e05cbb62",
"listing_id": "499480042828445113",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3c54e05cbb62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:17.900129Z"
},
{
"price": 2.44,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "510738192176872066",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AUG | Tom Cat (Factory New)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:18.312638Z"
},
{
"price": 3.23,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "515241791644858189",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AUG | Tom Cat (Factory New)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:18.312638Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "502857524065038184",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:48.376541Z"
},
{
"price": 1,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "496101493268397707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:39:24.784266Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-25:8+collection-set-community-26:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×8+The Fracture Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Fever Dream 16.0% $8.04 Acid Etched 16.0% $5.54 Apocalypto 16.0% $4.36 Darkwing 16.0% $3.82 Enforcer 16.0% $3.25 Monster Call 4.0% $2.47 | $8.04 +113.2% | $4.46 +18.2% | 64.0% | +43.6% | $3.77 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Fracture Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Fever Dream 8.0% $18.94 Acid Etched 8.0% $17.96 Darkwing 8.0% $13.75 Brother 12.0% $11.85 Enforcer 8.0% $11.37 Apocalypto 8.0% $11.36 | $18.94 +118.7% | $10.56 +22.0% | 52.0% | +38.5% | $8.66 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Fracture Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Fever Dream 12.0% $8.04 Acid Etched 12.0% $5.54 Apocalypto 12.0% $4.36 Darkwing 12.0% $3.79 Enforcer 12.0% $3.25 Monster Call 8.0% $2.47 | $8.04 +146.5% | $3.91 +19.8% | 48.0% | +49.6% | $3.26 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×7+The Fracture Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Fever Dream 14.0% $8.04 Acid Etched 14.0% $5.54 Apocalypto 14.0% $4.36 Darkwing 14.0% $3.82 Enforcer 14.0% $3.25 Monster Call 6.0% $2.47 | $8.04 +129.6% | $4.18 +19.5% | 56.0% | +46.6% | $3.50 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Fracture Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Fever Dream 10.0% $8.04 Acid Etched 10.0% $5.54 Apocalypto 10.0% $4.36 Darkwing 10.0% $3.79 Enforcer 10.0% $3.25 Monster Call 10.0% $2.47 | $8.04 +163.5% | $3.63 +19.1% | 50.0% | +51.9% | $3.05 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Fracture Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Fever Dream 6.0% $18.94 Acid Etched 6.0% $17.96 Darkwing 6.0% $13.75 Brother 14.0% $11.85 Enforcer 6.0% $11.37 Apocalypto 6.0% $11.36 | $18.94 +127.9% | $9.88 +18.9% | 44.0% | +39.1% | $8.31 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Fracture Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Fever Dream 4.0% $18.94 Acid Etched 4.0% $17.96 Darkwing 4.0% $13.75 Brother 16.0% $11.85 Enforcer 4.0% $11.37 Apocalypto 4.0% $11.36 | $18.94 +134.7% | $9.19 +13.9% | 52.0% | +37.6% | $8.07 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Fracture Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Phantom Disruptor  6.7% $30.48 Tooth Fairy  26.7% $19.65 Vogue  26.7% $16.88 Disco Tech  6.7% $13.93 Justice  6.7% $10.29 Entombed  26.7% $9.36 | $30.48 +109.9% | $15.88 +9.4% | 60.0% | +38.9% | $14.52 | — |