The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items

Battle-Scarred +14.6%Factory New +5.4%Field-Tested +6.3%Minimal Wear +23.9%Well-Worn +6.2%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn

Inputs

Yeti Camo

2x $0.26

Reef Grief

3x $0.36

Mint Fan

2x $0.38

Cobalt Paisley

1x $0.54

2A2F

1x $0.43

Green Line

1x $0.55

↓

Possible Outputs

Derailment

6.7% $7.13

Midnight Laminate

40.0% $6.93

Charged Up

6.7% $5.48

Whiteout

6.7% $4.04

Royal Guard

40.0% $1.23

Max Win

$7.13 (+73.0%)

EV (ROI %)

$4.37 (+6.2%)

Win %

53.3%

Volatility

+65.0%

Cost

$4.12

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $4.12

Ask Price EV $4.37 (+6.2%)

Bid Price EV $3.75 (-9.1%)

Ask Profit $0.25 (+6.2%)

Bid Profit $-0.37 (-9.1%)

Liquidity Gap $0.63 (+15.2%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.25

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.37

Risk

Win Probability 53.3%

Loss Probability 46.7%

Best Case $7.13 (+73.0%)

Worst Case $1.23 (-70.2%)

Volatility +65.0%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%

Avg Win +$2.65

Avg Loss -$2.49

Bottom 5% Outcome $1.23 (-70.2%)

Std Dev $2.68

Avg Norm Float 0.4448

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 16m

Oldest Output Price 156h 36m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.26 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.31 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Field-Tested

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Field-Tested

$0.37 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Field-Tested

$0.38 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Field-Tested

$0.40 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Field-Tested

$0.52 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Field-Tested

$0.54 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | 2A2F

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.43 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Green Line

—

Well-Worn

$0.55 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 42S //TOTAL COST $4.12 //ASK PRICE EV $4.37 //BID PRICE EV $3.75 //ASK PROFIT $0.25 (+6.2%) //BID PROFIT $-0.37 (-9.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 53.3% //BEST CASE $7.13 //VOLATILITY +65.0% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.3336225,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 6.931,
      "optimistic_value": 6.84,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 5.76,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.26689799999999997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 1.2285,
      "optimistic_value": 1.19,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 1.06,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:47.532789Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.31138099999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 7.1295,
      "optimistic_value": 7.07,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 6.4,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:20.889065Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.47814019999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 4.036,
      "optimistic_value": 3.98,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 3.98,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:19.371807Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.44483,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 5.481,
      "optimistic_value": 5.46,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 4.88,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T07:43:53.395739Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_c7fed59ee82699d0c90faa6a",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.26,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "527627540538804044",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:27:02.892318Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "519746241189717476",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:27:02.892318Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "509613142169138691",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:09.070876Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "514116741798243282",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:09.070876Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.38,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "528753440606210373",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:30:13.140636Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "499480042828625761",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:09.070876Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "500605837397096555",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:30:13.140636Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.54,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "500605942755294155",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:30:22.837375Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.43,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "505109542380591776",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:26.677869Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.55,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "501731842662736121",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:27:03.693065Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8+collection-set-train-2025:2"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Derailment 6.7% $41.07 Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Charged Up 6.7% $22.18 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.29	$64.86 +173.2%	$29.42 +23.9%	53.3%	+64.8%	$23.74	—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Derailment 6.7% $7.13 Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Charged Up 6.7% $4.93 Whiteout 6.7% $4.04 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.23	$7.13 +88.1%	$4.34 +14.6%	60.0%	+70.5%	$3.79	—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Derailment 6.7% $14.62 Whiteout 6.7% $9.67 Charged Up 6.7% $7.43 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.56	$18.08 +66.1%	$11.57 +6.3%	46.7%	+53.1%	$10.88	—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New	Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Charged Up 6.7% $63.69 Derailment 6.7% $41.07 Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.29	$64.86 +112.5%	$32.19 +5.4%	60.0%	+57.1%	$30.53	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $41.33 Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Charged Up 13.3% $22.18 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.46	$64.86 +142.4%	$32.83 +22.7%	56.7%	+63.1%	$26.76	—
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $41.30 Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Charged Up 10.0% $22.18 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.47	$64.86 +155.3%	$31.17 +22.7%	55.0%	+63.8%	$25.41	—
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $41.33 Midnight Laminate 25.0% $38.92 Charged Up 16.7% $22.18 Royal Guard 25.0% $13.29	$64.86 +129.4%	$34.45 +21.8%	58.3%	+61.7%	$28.28	—
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 3.3% $64.86 Derailment 3.3% $41.30 Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Charged Up 3.3% $22.18 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.47	$64.86 +182.6%	$27.86 +21.4%	51.7%	+61.8%	$22.95	—
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $41.30 Midnight Laminate 20.0% $38.92 Charged Up 20.0% $22.18 Royal Guard 20.0% $13.46	$64.86 +117.4%	$36.14 +21.1%	60.0%	+59.4%	$29.84	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 35.0% $294.44 Stratosphere 30.0% $131.31	$597.10 +97.4%	$351.43 +16.2%	35.0%	+63.4%	$302.51	—