The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items

Battle-Scarred +18.3%Factory New +4.1%Field-Tested +7.0%Minimal Wear +21.6%Well-Worn +3.5%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred

Inputs

Yeti Camo

2x $0.26

Cobalt Paisley

2x $0.31

Reef Grief

2x $0.36

Royal Baroque

2x $0.37

2A2F

2x $0.42

↓

Possible Outputs

Midnight Laminate

40.0% $6.94

Derailment

6.7% $5.85

Charged Up

6.7% $4.93

Whiteout

6.7% $4.12

Royal Guard

40.0% $1.22

Max Win

$6.94 (+92.9%)

EV (ROI %)

$4.26 (+18.3%)

Win %

60.0%

Volatility

+72.3%

Cost

$3.60

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $3.60

Ask Price EV $4.26 (+18.3%)

Bid Price EV $3.68 (+2.2%)

Ask Profit $0.66 (+18.3%)

Bid Profit $0.08 (+2.2%)

Liquidity Gap $0.58 (+16.1%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.66

Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.08

Risk

Win Probability 60.0%

Loss Probability 40.0%

Best Case $6.94 (+92.9%)

Worst Case $1.22 (-66.0%)

Volatility +72.3%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%

Avg Win +$2.68

Avg Loss -$2.38

Bottom 5% Outcome $1.22 (-66.0%)

Std Dev $2.60

Avg Norm Float 0.5524

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 22m

Oldest Output Price 155h 43m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.26 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Well-Worn

$0.31 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.32 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Well-Worn

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Field-Tested

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Field-Tested

$0.37 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Field-Tested

$0.39 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Field-Tested

$0.40 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | 2A2F

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.42 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | 2A2F

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.43 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 50S //TOTAL COST $3.60 //ASK PRICE EV $4.26 //BID PRICE EV $3.68 //ASK PROFIT $0.66 (+18.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.08 (+2.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $6.94 //VOLATILITY +72.3% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.414315,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 6.9435,
      "optimistic_value": 6.8,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 6.03,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:56:54.599031Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.331452,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 1.2229999999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 1.16,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 1.06,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:31:13.650087Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.386694,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 5.8545,
      "optimistic_value": 5.76,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 4.9,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:37.199726Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.5792748000000001,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 4.115,
      "optimistic_value": 4.08,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 3.99,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:29.719156Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.55242,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 4.9254999999999995,
      "optimistic_value": 4.88,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 3.75,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T00:12:33.464100Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_c7fed59ee82699d0c90faa6a",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.26,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "514116688950783354",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:47.989844Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "509613142168236027",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:48.384221Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "492724538182088361",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:47.989844Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "493850490550033732",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:48.384221Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "509613142168612335",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:18.196166Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "519746241189595256",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:18:34.536995Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.39,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "509613142168149267",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:18:34.536995Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "499480042828625761",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:18.196166Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.42,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "511864941882492645",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:26.649580Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.43,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "505109542380591776",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:26.649580Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8+collection-set-train-2025:2"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Derailment 6.7% $41.07 Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Charged Up 6.7% $22.18 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.29	$64.86 +168.1%	$29.42 +21.6%	53.3%	+63.6%	$24.19	—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Derailment 6.7% $14.69 Whiteout 6.7% $9.67 Charged Up 6.7% $7.43 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.56	$18.08 +67.1%	$11.58 +7.0%	46.7%	+53.4%	$10.82	—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New	Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Charged Up 6.7% $63.69 Derailment 6.7% $41.07 Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.29	$64.86 +109.7%	$32.19 +4.1%	60.0%	+56.3%	$30.93	—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Derailment 6.7% $7.13 Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.93 Charged Up 6.7% $5.48 Whiteout 6.7% $4.12 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.22	$7.13 +68.5%	$4.38 +3.5%	53.3%	+63.3%	$4.23	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $41.07 Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Charged Up 10.0% $22.18 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.29	$64.86 +157.4%	$31.08 +23.4%	55.0%	+64.5%	$25.20	—
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $41.07 Midnight Laminate 20.0% $38.92 Charged Up 20.0% $22.18 Royal Guard 20.0% $13.29	$64.86 +120.5%	$36.06 +22.6%	60.0%	+60.3%	$29.41	—
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 3.3% $64.86 Derailment 3.3% $41.07 Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Charged Up 3.3% $22.18 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.29	$64.86 +184.4%	$27.76 +21.7%	51.7%	+62.5%	$22.81	—
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $41.07 Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Charged Up 13.3% $22.18 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.29	$64.86 +140.1%	$32.74 +21.2%	56.7%	+62.7%	$27.02	—
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $41.07 Midnight Laminate 25.0% $38.92 Charged Up 16.7% $22.18 Royal Guard 25.0% $13.29	$64.86 +128.4%	$34.40 +21.1%	58.3%	+61.3%	$28.40	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New	Green Line 15.0% $28.83 2A2F 15.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 15.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 15.0% $11.23 Yeti Camo 8.0% $4.46 Mint Fan 8.0% $3.11	$28.83 +195.7%	$12.23 +25.5%	60.0%	+79.7%	$9.75	—
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 35.0% $294.44 Stratosphere 30.0% $131.31	$597.10 +97.4%	$351.43 +16.2%	35.0%	+63.4%	$302.51	—