The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Royal Baroque
3x $1.44
Yeti Camo
1x $1.74
Reef Grief
4x $2.01
Late Night Transit
2x $2.82
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
6.7% $64.86
Derailment
6.7% $41.07
Midnight Laminate
40.0% $38.92
Charged Up
6.7% $22.18
Royal Guard
40.0% $13.29
Max Win
$64.86 (+173.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$29.42 (+23.9%)
Win %
53.3%
Volatility
+64.8%
Cost
$23.74
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $23.74
Ask Price EV $29.42 (+23.9%)
Bid Price EV $27.20 (+14.6%)
Ask Profit $5.68 (+23.9%)
Bid Profit $3.46 (+14.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.22 (+9.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$5.68
Bid Slippage Buffer +$3.46
Risk
Win Probability 53.3%
Loss Probability 46.7%
Best Case $64.86 (+173.2%)
Worst Case $13.29 (-44.0%)
Volatility +64.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$18.69
Avg Loss -$9.18
Bottom 5% Outcome $13.29 (-44.0%)
Std Dev $15.38
Avg Norm Float 0.0931
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 156h
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.50 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$1.74 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.01 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.19 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.21 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$2.67 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$3.71 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.82 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$3.45 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 55M 04S //TOTAL COST $23.74 //ASK PRICE EV $29.42 //BID PRICE EV $27.20 //ASK PROFIT $5.68 (+23.9%) //BID PROFIT $3.46 (+14.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 53.3% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +64.8% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
6.7%
$64.86
+$41.12
+173.2%
$61.61
+$37.87
+159.5%
$3.25
5.0%
—
BIG WIN
6.7%
$41.07
+$17.33
+73.0%
$40.17
+$16.43
+69.2%
$0.90
2.2%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
40.0%
$38.92
+$15.18
+64.0%
$34.38
+$10.64
+44.8%
$4.54
11.7%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$22.18
-$1.56
-6.6%
$22.01
-$1.73
-7.3%
$0.17
0.8%
—
NUKE
40.0%
$13.29
-$10.45
-44.0%
$13.00
-$10.74
-45.2%
$0.29
2.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.06984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.055872,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.287500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 13.13,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:53.713107Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.06518399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 41.0705,
"optimistic_value": 40.85,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 40.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:41.369938Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.1475328,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 64.8635,
"optimistic_value": 64.79,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 61.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.09312,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 22.1775,
"optimistic_value": 22.02,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 22.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:37.155124Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c7fed59ee82699d0c90faa6a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:20.060121Z"
},
{
"price": 1.5,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "527627540538588980",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:20.060121Z"
},
{
"price": 1.74,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "497228243056330829",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:24.769404Z"
},
{
"price": 2.01,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "511864941882927705",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:26.775779Z"
},
{
"price": 2.19,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "516368541588522710",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:26.775779Z"
},
{
"price": 2.21,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "521998040963448510",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:26.775779Z"
},
{
"price": 2.67,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "500605889841516611",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:35.812520Z"
},
{
"price": 3.71,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "634586617400715303",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:26.775779Z"
},
{
"price": 2.82,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "502857742727429092",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:17.675574Z"
},
{
"price": 3.45,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "496102343227043063",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:17.675574Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8+collection-set-train-2025:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Derailment 6.7% $7.13 Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Charged Up 6.7% $4.93 Whiteout 6.7% $4.04 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.23 | $7.13 +88.1% | $4.34 +14.6% | 60.0% | +70.5% | $3.79 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Derailment 6.7% $14.62 Whiteout 6.7% $9.67 Charged Up 6.7% $7.43 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.56 | $18.08 +66.1% | $11.57 +6.3% | 46.7% | +53.1% | $10.88 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Derailment 6.7% $7.13 Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.93 Charged Up 6.7% $5.48 Whiteout 6.7% $4.04 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.23 | $7.13 +73.0% | $4.37 +6.2% | 53.3% | +65.0% | $4.12 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Charged Up 6.7% $63.69 Derailment 6.7% $41.07 Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.29 | $64.86 +112.5% | $32.19 +5.4% | 60.0% | +57.1% | $30.53 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $41.33 Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Charged Up 13.3% $22.18 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.46 | $64.86 +142.4% | $32.83 +22.7% | 56.7% | +63.1% | $26.76 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $41.30 Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Charged Up 10.0% $22.18 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.47 | $64.86 +155.3% | $31.17 +22.7% | 55.0% | +63.8% | $25.41 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $41.33 Midnight Laminate 25.0% $38.92 Charged Up 16.7% $22.18 Royal Guard 25.0% $13.29 | $64.86 +129.4% | $34.45 +21.8% | 58.3% | +61.7% | $28.28 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 3.3% $64.86 Derailment 3.3% $41.30 Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Charged Up 3.3% $22.18 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.47 | $64.86 +182.6% | $27.86 +21.4% | 51.7% | +61.8% | $22.95 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $41.30 Midnight Laminate 20.0% $38.92 Charged Up 20.0% $22.18 Royal Guard 20.0% $13.46 | $64.86 +117.4% | $36.14 +21.1% | 60.0% | +59.4% | $29.84 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  35.0% $294.44 Stratosphere  30.0% $131.31 | $597.10 +97.4% | $351.43 +16.2% | 35.0% | +63.4% | $302.51 | — |