The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items

Battle-Scarred +14.6%Factory New +5.4%Field-Tested +6.3%Minimal Wear +23.9%Well-Worn +6.2%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New

Inputs

Royal Baroque

3x $1.44

Reef Grief

4x $2.01

Mint Fan

1x $3.33

Late Night Transit

2x $2.82

↓

Possible Outputs

Whiteout

6.7% $64.86

Charged Up

6.7% $63.69

Derailment

6.7% $41.07

Midnight Laminate

40.0% $38.92

Royal Guard

40.0% $13.29

Max Win

$64.86 (+112.5%)

EV (ROI %)

$32.19 (+5.4%)

Win %

60.0%

Volatility

+57.1%

Cost

$30.53

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $30.53

Ask Price EV $32.19 (+5.4%)

Bid Price EV $29.63 (-2.9%)

Ask Profit $1.66 (+5.4%)

Bid Profit $-0.90 (-2.9%)

Liquidity Gap $2.56 (+8.4%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.66

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.90

Risk

Win Probability 60.0%

Loss Probability 40.0%

Best Case $64.86 (+112.5%)

Worst Case $13.29 (-56.5%)

Volatility +57.1%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%

Avg Win +$14.27

Avg Loss -$17.24

Bottom 5% Outcome $13.29 (-56.5%)

Std Dev $17.43

Avg Norm Float 0.0697

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 24m

Oldest Output Price 155h 59m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Minimal Wear

$1.44 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Factory New

$2.01 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Factory New

$2.19 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Factory New

$2.21 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Factory New

$3.33 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Factory New

$3.71 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Factory New

$4.65 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Factory New

$4.72 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

—

Minimal Wear

$2.82 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

—

Minimal Wear

$3.45 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 09S //TOTAL COST $30.53 //ASK PRICE EV $32.19 //BID PRICE EV $29.63 //ASK PROFIT $1.66 (+5.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.90 (-2.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +57.1% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.052245,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
      "optimistic_value": 38.81,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 34.38,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.041796,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 13.287500000000001,
      "optimistic_value": 13.13,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 13,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:53.713107Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.048762,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 41.0705,
      "optimistic_value": 40.85,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 40.17,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:41.369938Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.1254804,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 64.8635,
      "optimistic_value": 64.79,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 61.61,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.06966,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 63.693,
      "optimistic_value": 62.72,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 58.44,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:25.585598Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_c7fed59ee82699d0c90faa6a",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 1.44,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "652601015909084844",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:20.060121Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.01,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "511864941882927705",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:26.775779Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "516368541588522710",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:26.775779Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.21,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "521998040963448510",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:26.775779Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.33,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "524249840859355167",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:54.693891Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.71,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "634586617400715303",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:26.775779Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.65,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "503983423966579591",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:35.812520Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.72,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "506234592363569076",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:35.812520Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.82,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "502857742727429092",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:17.675574Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.45,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "496102343227043063",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:17.675574Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8+collection-set-train-2025:2"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Derailment 6.7% $41.07 Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Charged Up 6.7% $22.18 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.29	$64.86 +173.2%	$29.42 +23.9%	53.3%	+64.8%	$23.74	—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Derailment 6.7% $7.13 Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Charged Up 6.7% $4.93 Whiteout 6.7% $4.04 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.23	$7.13 +88.1%	$4.34 +14.6%	60.0%	+70.5%	$3.79	—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Derailment 6.7% $14.62 Whiteout 6.7% $9.67 Charged Up 6.7% $7.43 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.56	$18.08 +66.1%	$11.57 +6.3%	46.7%	+53.1%	$10.88	—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Derailment 6.7% $7.13 Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.93 Charged Up 6.7% $5.48 Whiteout 6.7% $4.04 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.23	$7.13 +73.0%	$4.37 +6.2%	53.3%	+65.0%	$4.12	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $41.33 Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Charged Up 13.3% $22.18 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.46	$64.86 +142.4%	$32.83 +22.7%	56.7%	+63.1%	$26.76	—
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $41.30 Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Charged Up 10.0% $22.18 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.47	$64.86 +155.3%	$31.17 +22.7%	55.0%	+63.8%	$25.41	—
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $41.33 Midnight Laminate 25.0% $38.92 Charged Up 16.7% $22.18 Royal Guard 25.0% $13.29	$64.86 +129.4%	$34.45 +21.8%	58.3%	+61.7%	$28.28	—
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 3.3% $64.86 Derailment 3.3% $41.30 Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Charged Up 3.3% $22.18 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.47	$64.86 +182.6%	$27.86 +21.4%	51.7%	+61.8%	$22.95	—
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $41.30 Midnight Laminate 20.0% $38.92 Charged Up 20.0% $22.18 Royal Guard 20.0% $13.46	$64.86 +117.4%	$36.14 +21.1%	60.0%	+59.4%	$29.84	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 35.0% $294.44 Stratosphere 30.0% $131.31	$597.10 +97.4%	$351.43 +16.2%	35.0%	+63.4%	$302.51	—