The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Zubastick
4x $0.16
Fragment
1x $0.24
Late Night Transit
1x $0.51
Green Line
4x $0.58
↓
Possible Outputs
Derailment
16.7% $7.13
Charged Up
16.7% $5.48
Whiteout
16.7% $5.34
Electrum
10.0% $3.09
Firebreathing
10.0% $2.02
Galigator
10.0% $1.98
Max Win
$7.13 (+83.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.98 (+2.5%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+55.0%
Cost
$3.88
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.88
Ask Price EV $3.98 (+2.5%)
Bid Price EV $3.60 (-7.3%)
Ask Profit $0.10 (+2.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.28 (-7.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.38 (+9.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.10
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.28
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $7.13 (+83.8%)
Worst Case $1.36 (-64.9%)
Volatility +55.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$2.10
Avg Loss -$1.91
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.36 (-64.9%)
Std Dev $2.13
Avg Norm Float 0.4115
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 144h 9m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 47M 14S //TOTAL COST $3.88 //ASK PRICE EV $3.98 //BID PRICE EV $3.60 //ASK PROFIT $0.10 (+2.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.28 (-7.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $7.13 //VOLATILITY +55.0% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.7%
$7.13
+$3.25
+83.8%
$6.40
+$2.52
+64.9%
$0.73
10.2%
—
WIN
16.7%
$5.48
+$1.60
+41.3%
$4.88
+$1.00
+25.8%
$0.60
11.0%
—
WIN
16.7%
$5.34
+$1.46
+37.6%
$5.34
+$1.46
+37.6%
$0.00
0.0%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$3.09
-$0.79
-20.3%
$2.55
-$1.33
-34.3%
$0.54
17.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.02
-$1.86
-47.8%
$1.87
-$2.01
-51.8%
$0.15
7.6%
—
NUKE THIN BID
10.0%
$1.98
-$1.90
-48.9%
$1.30
-$2.58
-66.5%
$0.68
34.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.40
-$2.48
-64.0%
$1.30
-$2.58
-66.5%
$0.10
7.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.36
-$2.52
-64.9%
$1.26
-$2.62
-67.5%
$0.10
7.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.288036,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 7.1295,
"optimistic_value": 7.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 6.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.4467912,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 5.34,
"optimistic_value": 5.34,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 5.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:34:39.743164Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.41148,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 5.481,
"optimistic_value": 5.46,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 4.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T07:43:53.395739Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.41148,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.0235,
"optimistic_value": 2.02,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 1.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:09:27.454296Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.41148,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 1.9809999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.89,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T04:16:23.451221Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.41148,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 3.0915,
"optimistic_value": 3.06,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 2.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:14:00.395844Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.41148,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.361,
"optimistic_value": 1.34,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:36.592685Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.41148,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.3975,
"optimistic_value": 1.38,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:07:35.113073Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c31eb8a0cdb9a78b453fa25d",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "528753387757865025",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:47.964908Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "529879287550965708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:47.964908Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "493850490549435088",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:47.964908Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "644719809067758207",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:47.964908Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "506235389470044012",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:05.766551Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "503983589619599383",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:17.255681Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "514116688950228990",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:43.952384Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "517494388633853230",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:43.952384Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "490472790737415795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:43.952384Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "512990789044994819",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:43.952384Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:5+collection-set-train-2025:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Charged Up 16.7% $63.47 Derailment 16.7% $44.71 Electrum 10.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 10.0% $12.97 Galigator 10.0% $11.37 | $64.86 +140.3% | $35.24 +30.6% | 50.0% | +76.4% | $26.99 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.69 Charged Up 16.7% $7.77 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $9.69 +129.7% | $5.39 +27.8% | 50.0% | +59.9% | $4.22 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $44.71 Charged Up 16.7% $22.82 Electrum 10.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 10.0% $5.02 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $3.24 | $64.86 +214.7% | $24.23 +17.6% | 50.0% | +103.6% | $20.61 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Charged Up 13.3% $63.47 Derailment 13.3% $44.71 Electrum 12.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 12.0% $12.97 Galigator 12.0% $11.37 | $64.86 +180.6% | $30.75 +33.0% | 40.0% | +88.9% | $23.12 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 10.0% $9.69 Charged Up 10.0% $7.77 Derailment 10.0% $7.13 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 | $9.69 +196.4% | $4.26 +30.4% | 44.0% | +74.3% | $3.27 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 6.7% $9.69 Charged Up 6.7% $7.77 Derailment 6.7% $7.13 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 | $9.69 +237.8% | $3.70 +29.0% | 36.0% | +76.4% | $2.87 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.69 Charged Up 20.0% $7.77 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $9.69 +106.2% | $5.95 +26.7% | 60.0% | +51.9% | $4.70 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.69 Charged Up 23.3% $7.77 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $9.69 +81.9% | $6.52 +22.2% | 70.0% | +42.4% | $5.33 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 3.3% $64.86 Charged Up 3.3% $63.47 Derailment 3.3% $44.72 Electrum 18.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 18.0% $12.97 Galigator 18.0% $11.31 | $64.86 +349.8% | $17.27 +19.8% | 28.0% | +93.7% | $14.42 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $44.72 Charged Up 26.7% $22.82 Electrum 4.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 4.0% $5.02 Amberline 4.0% $3.26 | $64.86 +106.0% | $36.17 +14.9% | 53.3% | +63.7% | $31.49 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  20.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  20.0% $294.44 Crane Flight  20.0% $150.19 Deathgaze  20.0% $40.34 Kintsugi  20.0% $38.39 | $597.10 +248.6% | $224.09 +30.8% | 40.0% | +121.8% | $171.31 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  10.0% $663.30 Queen's Gambit  45.0% $200.36 Fully Tuned  45.0% $183.83 | $663.30 +236.8% | $239.22 +21.5% | 55.0% | +71.9% | $196.95 | — |