The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Bock Blocks
5x $1.53
Late Night Transit
1x $3.01
Green Line
2x $3.29
Run Run Run
1x $3.52
2A2F
1x $4.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
16.7% $64.86
Charged Up
16.7% $63.47
Derailment
16.7% $44.71
Electrum
10.0% $19.50
Firebreathing
10.0% $12.97
Galigator
10.0% $11.37
Max Win
$64.86 (+140.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$35.24 (+30.6%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+87.1%
Cost
$26.99
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $26.99
Ask Price EV $35.24 (+30.6%)
Bid Price EV $33.13 (+22.8%)
Ask Profit $8.25 (+30.6%)
Bid Profit $6.14 (+22.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.10 (+7.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$8.25
Bid Slippage Buffer +$6.14
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $64.86 (+140.3%)
Worst Case $9.90 (-63.3%)
Volatility +87.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$30.69
Avg Loss -$14.20
Bottom 5% Outcome $9.90 (-63.3%)
Std Dev $23.50
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 144h 35m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.55 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.14 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.20 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.21 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$3.01 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$3.29 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$3.35 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Minimal Wear
$3.52 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$4.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 47M 15S //TOTAL COST $26.99 //ASK PRICE EV $35.24 //BID PRICE EV $33.13 //ASK PROFIT $8.25 (+30.6%) //BID PROFIT $6.14 (+22.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +87.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.7%
$64.86
+$37.87
+140.3%
$61.61
+$34.62
+128.3%
$3.25
5.0%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$63.47
+$36.48
+135.2%
$58.44
+$31.45
+116.5%
$5.03
7.9%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$44.71
+$17.72
+65.7%
$43.04
+$16.05
+59.5%
$1.67
3.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$19.50
-$7.49
-27.8%
$17.32
-$9.67
-35.8%
$2.18
11.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$12.97
-$14.02
-52.0%
$11.57
-$15.42
-57.1%
$1.40
10.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$11.37
-$15.62
-57.9%
$10.69
-$16.30
-60.4%
$0.68
6.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$10.24
-$16.75
-62.1%
$10.09
-$16.90
-62.6%
$0.15
1.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$9.90
-$17.09
-63.3%
$9.86
-$17.13
-63.5%
$0.04
0.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.048902,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 44.7135,
"optimistic_value": 44.64,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 43.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:55:16.448013Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.1256684,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 64.8635,
"optimistic_value": 64.79,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 61.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06986,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 63.472,
"optimistic_value": 62.38,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 58.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:05:40.142681Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06986,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 12.967,
"optimistic_value": 12.89,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 11.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:51.443586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06986,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 11.370000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 11.3,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 10.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:33.861349Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06986,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 19.4975,
"optimistic_value": 19.34,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 17.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:57.497142Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06986,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 10.237,
"optimistic_value": 10.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 10.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:35.465199Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06986,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 9.897,
"optimistic_value": 9.89,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 9.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:12:59.862881Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c31eb8a0cdb9a78b453fa25d",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "523123888072436950",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:42.163496Z"
},
{
"price": 1.55,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "502857689862497968",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:42.163496Z"
},
{
"price": 2.14,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "630083017705272354",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:42.163496Z"
},
{
"price": 2.2,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375688036676887",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:42.163496Z"
},
{
"price": 2.21,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "502857637418052784",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:42.163496Z"
},
{
"price": 3.01,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "511864888984827585",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:57:32.797430Z"
},
{
"price": 3.29,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "524249787961801887",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:11.825791Z"
},
{
"price": 3.35,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "492724590626786805",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:11.825791Z"
},
{
"price": 3.52,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "500605837397320439",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:51.626040Z"
},
{
"price": 4.19,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "642467916639686441",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:13:01.646140Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:5+collection-set-train-2025:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.69 Charged Up 16.7% $7.77 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $9.69 +129.7% | $5.39 +27.8% | 50.0% | +59.9% | $4.22 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $44.71 Charged Up 16.7% $22.82 Electrum 10.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 10.0% $5.02 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $3.24 | $64.86 +214.7% | $24.23 +17.6% | 50.0% | +103.6% | $20.61 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Charged Up 16.7% $5.48 Whiteout 16.7% $5.34 Electrum 10.0% $3.09 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.02 Galigator 10.0% $1.98 | $7.13 +83.8% | $3.98 +2.5% | 50.0% | +46.1% | $3.88 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Charged Up 13.3% $63.47 Derailment 13.3% $44.71 Electrum 12.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 12.0% $12.97 Galigator 12.0% $11.37 | $64.86 +180.6% | $30.75 +33.0% | 40.0% | +88.9% | $23.12 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 10.0% $9.69 Charged Up 10.0% $7.77 Derailment 10.0% $7.13 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 | $9.69 +196.4% | $4.26 +30.4% | 44.0% | +74.3% | $3.27 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 6.7% $9.69 Charged Up 6.7% $7.77 Derailment 6.7% $7.13 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 | $9.69 +237.8% | $3.70 +29.0% | 36.0% | +76.4% | $2.87 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.69 Charged Up 20.0% $7.77 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $9.69 +106.2% | $5.95 +26.7% | 60.0% | +51.9% | $4.70 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.69 Charged Up 23.3% $7.77 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $9.69 +81.9% | $6.52 +22.2% | 70.0% | +42.4% | $5.33 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 3.3% $64.86 Charged Up 3.3% $63.47 Derailment 3.3% $44.72 Electrum 18.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 18.0% $12.97 Galigator 18.0% $11.31 | $64.86 +349.8% | $17.27 +19.8% | 28.0% | +93.7% | $14.42 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $44.72 Charged Up 26.7% $22.82 Electrum 4.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 4.0% $5.02 Amberline 4.0% $3.26 | $64.86 +106.0% | $36.17 +14.9% | 53.3% | +63.7% | $31.49 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  20.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  20.0% $294.44 Crane Flight  20.0% $150.19 Deathgaze  20.0% $40.34 Kintsugi  20.0% $38.39 | $597.10 +248.6% | $224.09 +30.8% | 40.0% | +121.8% | $171.31 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  10.0% $663.30 Queen's Gambit  45.0% $200.36 Fully Tuned  45.0% $183.83 | $663.30 +236.8% | $239.22 +21.5% | 55.0% | +71.9% | $196.95 | — |