The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Bock Blocks
4x $0.50
Zubastick
1x $0.64
Late Night Transit
2x $1.75
2A2F
1x $2.90
Green Line
2x $3.29
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
16.7% $64.86
Derailment
16.7% $44.71
Charged Up
16.7% $22.82
Electrum
10.0% $7.00
Firebreathing
10.0% $5.02
Urban Sovereign
10.0% $3.24
Max Win
$64.86 (+214.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$24.23 (+17.6%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+113.2%
Cost
$20.61
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $20.61
Ask Price EV $24.23 (+17.6%)
Bid Price EV $23.09 (+12.0%)
Ask Profit $3.62 (+17.6%)
Bid Profit $2.48 (+12.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.14 (+5.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.62
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.48
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $64.86 (+214.7%)
Worst Case $3.18 (-84.6%)
Volatility +113.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$23.52
Avg Loss -$16.28
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.18 (-84.6%)
Std Dev $23.34
Avg Norm Float 0.0956
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 144h 35m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.64 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.55 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.14 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Field-Tested
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$2.90 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$3.01 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$3.29 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$3.30 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 47M 14S //TOTAL COST $20.61 //ASK PRICE EV $24.23 //BID PRICE EV $23.09 //ASK PROFIT $3.62 (+17.6%) //BID PROFIT $2.48 (+12.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +113.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$64.86
+$44.25
+214.7%
$61.61
+$41.00
+198.9%
$3.25
5.0%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$44.71
+$24.10
+117.0%
$43.04
+$22.43
+108.8%
$1.67
3.7%
—
SMALL WIN
16.7%
$22.82
+$2.21
+10.7%
$22.33
+$1.72
+8.3%
$0.49
2.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$7.00
-$13.61
-66.1%
$5.93
-$14.68
-71.2%
$1.07
15.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$5.02
-$15.59
-75.6%
$3.97
-$16.64
-80.7%
$1.05
20.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.24
-$17.37
-84.3%
$3.08
-$17.53
-85.1%
$0.16
4.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.23
-$17.38
-84.3%
$3.14
-$17.47
-84.8%
$0.09
2.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.18
-$17.43
-84.6%
$3.12
-$17.49
-84.9%
$0.06
1.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.066892,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 44.7135,
"optimistic_value": 44.64,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 43.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:55:16.448013Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.1498264,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 64.8635,
"optimistic_value": 64.79,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 61.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.09556,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 22.815,
"optimistic_value": 22.78,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 22.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:04.185204Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09556,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 4.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09556,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.2270000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 3.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:18.348500Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09556,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 6.997,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09556,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 3.1785,
"optimistic_value": 3.14,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 3.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:17.586621Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09556,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.237,
"optimistic_value": 3.23,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:05.231847Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c31eb8a0cdb9a78b453fa25d",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "528753387757865673",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:35.222688Z"
},
{
"price": 0.64,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "514116688949983218",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:18:35.048916Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "523123888072436950",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:42.163496Z"
},
{
"price": 1.55,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "502857689862497968",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:42.163496Z"
},
{
"price": 2.14,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "630083017705272354",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:42.163496Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "494976338032637358",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:21.281176Z"
},
{
"price": 2.9,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "503983589619674695",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:13:01.646140Z"
},
{
"price": 3.01,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "511864888984827585",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:57:32.797430Z"
},
{
"price": 3.29,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "524249787961801887",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:11.825791Z"
},
{
"price": 3.3,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "499479989896841053",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:11.825791Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:5+collection-set-train-2025:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Charged Up 16.7% $63.47 Derailment 16.7% $44.71 Electrum 10.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 10.0% $12.97 Galigator 10.0% $11.37 | $64.86 +140.3% | $35.24 +30.6% | 50.0% | +76.4% | $26.99 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.69 Charged Up 16.7% $7.77 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $9.69 +129.7% | $5.39 +27.8% | 50.0% | +59.9% | $4.22 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Charged Up 16.7% $5.48 Whiteout 16.7% $5.34 Electrum 10.0% $3.09 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.02 Galigator 10.0% $1.98 | $7.13 +83.8% | $3.98 +2.5% | 50.0% | +46.1% | $3.88 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Charged Up 13.3% $63.47 Derailment 13.3% $44.71 Electrum 12.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 12.0% $12.97 Galigator 12.0% $11.37 | $64.86 +180.6% | $30.75 +33.0% | 40.0% | +88.9% | $23.12 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 10.0% $9.69 Charged Up 10.0% $7.77 Derailment 10.0% $7.13 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 | $9.69 +196.4% | $4.26 +30.4% | 44.0% | +74.3% | $3.27 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 6.7% $9.69 Charged Up 6.7% $7.77 Derailment 6.7% $7.13 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 | $9.69 +237.8% | $3.70 +29.0% | 36.0% | +76.4% | $2.87 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.69 Charged Up 20.0% $7.77 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $9.69 +106.2% | $5.95 +26.7% | 60.0% | +51.9% | $4.70 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.69 Charged Up 23.3% $7.77 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $9.69 +81.9% | $6.52 +22.2% | 70.0% | +42.4% | $5.33 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 3.3% $64.86 Charged Up 3.3% $63.47 Derailment 3.3% $44.72 Electrum 18.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 18.0% $12.97 Galigator 18.0% $11.31 | $64.86 +349.8% | $17.27 +19.8% | 28.0% | +93.7% | $14.42 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $44.72 Charged Up 26.7% $22.82 Electrum 4.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 4.0% $5.02 Amberline 4.0% $3.26 | $64.86 +106.0% | $36.17 +14.9% | 53.3% | +63.7% | $31.49 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  20.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  20.0% $294.44 Crane Flight  20.0% $150.19 Deathgaze  20.0% $40.34 Kintsugi  20.0% $38.39 | $597.10 +248.6% | $224.09 +30.8% | 40.0% | +121.8% | $171.31 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  10.0% $663.30 Queen's Gambit  45.0% $200.36 Fully Tuned  45.0% $183.83 | $663.30 +236.8% | $239.22 +21.5% | 55.0% | +71.9% | $196.95 | — |