The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Zubastick
1x $0.15
Dark Polymer
1x $0.25
Fragment
3x $0.27
Late Night Transit
1x $0.51
Green Line
4x $0.59
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
16.7% $9.69
Charged Up
16.7% $7.77
Derailment
16.7% $7.13
Electrum
10.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
10.0% $2.79
Galigator
10.0% $2.19
Max Win
$9.69 (+127.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.38 (+25.9%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+69.9%
Cost
$4.27
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.27
Ask Price EV $5.38 (+25.9%)
Bid Price EV $5.05 (+18.2%)
Ask Profit $1.11 (+25.9%)
Bid Profit $0.78 (+18.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.33 (+7.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.11
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.78
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $9.69 (+127.0%)
Worst Case $1.75 (-59.0%)
Volatility +69.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$3.93
Avg Loss -$1.71
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.75 (-59.0%)
Std Dev $2.99
Avg Norm Float 0.3338
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 143h 7m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
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Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Field-Tested
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.64 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 58M 41S //TOTAL COST $4.27 //ASK PRICE EV $5.38 //BID PRICE EV $5.05 //ASK PROFIT $1.11 (+25.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.78 (+18.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $9.69 //VOLATILITY +69.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.7%
$9.69
+$5.42
+127.0%
$9.66
+$5.39
+126.2%
$0.03
0.3%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$7.77
+$3.50
+82.0%
$7.66
+$3.39
+79.4%
$0.11
1.4%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$7.13
+$2.86
+67.0%
$6.40
+$2.13
+49.9%
$0.73
10.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$4.11
-$0.16
-3.7%
$3.61
-$0.66
-15.5%
$0.50
12.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$2.79
-$1.48
-34.7%
$2.32
-$1.95
-45.7%
$0.47
16.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.19
-$2.08
-48.8%
$1.74
-$2.53
-59.3%
$0.45
20.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.94
-$2.33
-54.5%
$1.63
-$2.64
-61.8%
$0.31
16.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.75
-$2.52
-59.0%
$1.63
-$2.64
-61.8%
$0.12
7.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.233674,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 7.1295,
"optimistic_value": 7.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 6.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.3737908,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 9.6935,
"optimistic_value": 9.69,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 9.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:54.484473Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.33382,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 7.77,
"optimistic_value": 7.77,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 7.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:28.781499Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.33382,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.33382,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.33382,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.33382,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.7525,
"optimistic_value": 1.7,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:59.245916Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.33382,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.9445,
"optimistic_value": 1.92,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:47.013513Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c31eb8a0cdb9a78b453fa25d",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "525375688037145859",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.216628Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "527627487624357656",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:29.492317Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "523123888072505314",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:33.076565Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "512990789044719455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:33.076565Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "516368436281402378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:33.076565Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "503983589619599383",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:40.961770Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "503983589619670519",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:10.566185Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "490472790737415795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:10.566185Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "512990789044994819",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:10.566185Z"
},
{
"price": 0.64,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "527627487624035384",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:10.566185Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:5+collection-set-train-2025:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Charged Up 16.7% $63.47 Derailment 16.7% $44.71 Electrum 10.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 10.0% $12.97 Galigator 10.0% $11.37 | $64.86 +138.5% | $35.24 +29.6% | 50.0% | +75.8% | $27.20 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $44.71 Charged Up 16.7% $22.86 Electrum 10.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 10.0% $5.02 Galigator 10.0% $3.31 | $64.86 +213.5% | $24.25 +17.2% | 50.0% | +103.2% | $20.69 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Charged Up 16.7% $5.48 Whiteout 16.7% $5.34 Electrum 10.0% $3.09 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.02 Galigator 10.0% $1.98 | $7.13 +83.3% | $3.97 +2.1% | 50.0% | +46.0% | $3.89 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Charged Up 13.3% $63.47 Derailment 13.3% $44.71 Electrum 12.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 12.0% $12.97 Galigator 12.0% $11.37 | $64.86 +180.2% | $30.75 +32.8% | 40.0% | +88.8% | $23.15 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Charged Up 10.0% $63.47 Derailment 10.0% $44.71 Electrum 14.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 14.0% $12.97 Galigator 14.0% $11.37 | $64.86 +223.8% | $26.26 +31.1% | 30.0% | +97.8% | $20.03 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Charged Up 6.7% $63.47 Derailment 6.7% $44.71 Electrum 16.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 16.0% $12.97 Galigator 16.0% $11.37 | $64.86 +285.6% | $21.77 +29.4% | 36.0% | +103.9% | $16.82 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 3.3% $9.69 Charged Up 3.3% $7.77 Derailment 3.3% $7.13 Electrum 18.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 18.0% $2.79 Galigator 18.0% $2.19 | $9.69 +287.7% | $3.15 +26.0% | 46.0% | +69.6% | $2.50 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Charged Up 20.0% $63.47 Derailment 20.0% $44.71 Electrum 8.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 8.0% $12.97 Galigator 8.0% $11.37 | $64.86 +102.7% | $39.73 +24.1% | 60.0% | +62.4% | $32.00 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.69 Charged Up 23.3% $7.77 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $9.69 +80.5% | $6.51 +21.1% | 70.0% | +42.2% | $5.37 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  25.0% $294.44 Crane Flight  16.7% $150.19 Deathgaze  16.7% $40.34 Kintsugi  16.7% $38.39 | $597.10 +199.3% | $261.04 +30.9% | 50.0% | +108.6% | $199.48 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  10.0% $663.30 Queen's Gambit  45.0% $200.36 Fully Tuned  45.0% $183.83 | $663.30 +241.6% | $239.22 +23.2% | 55.0% | +72.9% | $194.17 | — |