The Italy Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Boreal Forest
2x $0.18
Gunsmoke
2x $0.30
XoooM
1x $0.15
Picnic
2x $0.15
Banana Leaf
2x $0.16
Coral Paisley
1x $0.21
↓
Possible Outputs
Candy Apple
13.3% $3.63
Fraise Crane
15.0% $2.93
Anodized Navy
13.3% $2.48
Sky Mandala
15.0% $1.68
Earth Mandala
15.0% $1.20
Warm Blooded
15.0% $1.07
Max Win
$3.63 (+83.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.89 (-4.6%)
Win %
41.7%
Volatility
+53.6%
Cost
$1.98
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.98
Ask Price EV $1.89 (-4.6%)
Bid Price EV $1.74 (-11.9%)
Ask Profit $-0.09 (-4.6%)
Bid Profit $-0.24 (-11.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.14 (+7.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.09
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.24
Risk
Win Probability 41.7%
Loss Probability 58.3%
Best Case $3.63 (+83.5%)
Worst Case $0.31 (-84.1%)
Volatility +53.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 43.3%
Avg Win +$1.03
Avg Loss -$0.89
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.31 (-84.1%)
Std Dev $1.06
Avg Norm Float 0.1485
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 14m
Oldest Output Price 144h 12m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Gunsmoke
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Gunsmoke
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 49M 11S //TOTAL COST $1.98 //ASK PRICE EV $1.89 //BID PRICE EV $1.74 //ASK PROFIT $-0.09 (-4.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.24 (-11.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 41.7% //BEST CASE $3.63 //VOLATILITY +53.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
13.3%
$3.63
+$1.65
+83.5%
$3.60
+$1.62
+81.8%
$0.03
0.9%
—
WIN
15.0%
$2.93
+$0.95
+48.2%
$2.39
+$0.41
+20.7%
$0.54
18.5%
—
WIN
13.3%
$2.48
+$0.50
+25.1%
$2.47
+$0.49
+24.7%
$0.01
0.3%
—
LOSS
15.0%
$1.68
-$0.30
-15.1%
$1.57
-$0.41
-20.7%
$0.11
6.6%
—
LOSS
15.0%
$1.20
-$0.78
-39.5%
$1.01
-$0.97
-49.0%
$0.19
15.7%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$1.07
-$0.91
-45.8%
$1.01
-$0.97
-49.0%
$0.06
5.9%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$0.31
-$1.67
-84.1%
$0.29
-$1.69
-85.4%
$0.02
7.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-italy|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.09651850000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 2.9339999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 2.92,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 2.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:56.777445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.10394300000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 1.6815,
"optimistic_value": 1.58,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:37.820404Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.10394300000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 1.0735000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.07,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:35.163110Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.09800340000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 1.1975,
"optimistic_value": 1.18,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:44:50.011342Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.044547,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4e5b581684d4",
"realistic_value": 3.6335,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:41:52.882116Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4e5b581684d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.011879200000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-16044409b9f9",
"realistic_value": 2.4770000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.47,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 2.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:50:04.764312Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-16044409b9f9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.089094,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5399c334e3b4",
"realistic_value": 0.314,
"optimistic_value": 0.3,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop",
"conservative_value": 0.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:35:02.822713Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5399c334e3b4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b5823f30ab336de55d2101bd",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-7c750505c0aa",
"listing_id": "511864888984395801",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7c750505c0aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:52:45.121160Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-7c750505c0aa",
"listing_id": "528753335313855693",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7c750505c0aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:52:45.121160Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-4876ba10c2c4",
"listing_id": "516368436282001994",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4876ba10c2c4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:53:08.279443Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-4876ba10c2c4",
"listing_id": "622201718381080056",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4876ba10c2c4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:53:08.279443Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "508487189340292418",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:47.296858Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "517494388633711354",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:48.205426Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "529879287551405232",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:21.780595Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "503983589618556751",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:48.205426Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "507361237008908833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:21.780595Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "512990789045116211",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:36.984600Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-italy:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Candy Apple 13.3% $3.63 Fraise Crane 15.0% $2.93 Anodized Navy 13.3% $2.48 Sky Mandala 15.0% $1.68 Earth Mandala 15.0% $1.20 Warm Blooded 15.0% $1.07 | $3.63 +137.5% | $1.89 +23.5% | 56.7% | +58.2% | $1.53 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Candy Apple 16.7% $3.63 Fraise Crane 12.5% $2.93 Anodized Navy 16.7% $2.48 Sky Mandala 12.5% $1.69 Earth Mandala 12.5% $1.20 Warm Blooded 12.5% $1.07 | $3.63 +135.9% | $1.93 +25.3% | 58.3% | +59.0% | $1.54 | — |
The Italy Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Candy Apple 20.0% $3.63 Fraise Crane 10.0% $2.93 Anodized Navy 20.0% $2.48 Sky Mandala 10.0% $1.69 Earth Mandala 10.0% $1.20 Warm Blooded 10.0% $1.07 | $3.63 +118.9% | $1.97 +18.8% | 60.0% | +55.4% | $1.66 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic  35.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion  35.0% $2.17 Pit Viper  30.0% $1.40 | $9.85 +167.7% | $4.63 +25.8% | 35.0% | +104.5% | $3.68 | — |