The Italy Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Gunsmoke
3x $0.30
CaliCamo
1x $0.69
Banana Leaf
1x $0.34
Picnic
3x $0.58
Coral Paisley
1x $0.80
XoooM
1x $1.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
15.0% $6.16
Candy Apple
13.3% $3.63
Sky Mandala
15.0% $3.51
Anodized Navy
13.3% $2.48
Earth Mandala
15.0% $2.31
Warm Blooded
15.0% $2.28
Max Win
$6.16 (-2.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.16 (-50.2%)
Win %
0.0%
Volatility
+22.5%
Cost
$6.34
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.34
Ask Price EV $3.16 (-50.2%)
Bid Price EV $3.12 (-50.8%)
Ask Profit $-3.18 (-50.2%)
Bid Profit $-3.22 (-50.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.04 (+0.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.18
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.22
Risk
Win Probability 0.00%
Loss Probability 100.0%
Best Case $6.16 (-2.9%)
Worst Case $1.53 (-75.9%)
Volatility +22.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 85.0%
Avg Win —
Avg Loss -$3.18
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.53 (-75.9%)
Std Dev $1.43
Avg Norm Float 0.0694
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 144h 12m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Gunsmoke
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Gunsmoke
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Gunsmoke
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | CaliCamo
—
Factory New
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$1.18 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 48M 43S //TOTAL COST $6.34 //ASK PRICE EV $3.16 //BID PRICE EV $3.12 //ASK PROFIT $-3.18 (-50.2%) //BID PROFIT $-3.22 (-50.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $6.16 //VOLATILITY +22.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
LOSS
15.0%
$6.16
-$0.18
-2.9%
$6.12
-$0.22
-3.5%
$0.04
0.6%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$3.63
-$2.71
-42.7%
$3.60
-$2.74
-43.2%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$3.51
-$2.83
-44.6%
$3.42
-$2.92
-46.1%
$0.09
2.7%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$2.48
-$3.86
-60.9%
$2.47
-$3.87
-61.0%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$2.31
-$4.03
-63.6%
$2.25
-$4.09
-64.5%
$0.06
2.5%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$2.28
-$4.06
-64.0%
$2.25
-$4.09
-64.5%
$0.03
1.3%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$1.53
-$4.81
-75.9%
$1.51
-$4.83
-76.2%
$0.02
1.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-italy|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.045097,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.1579999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.048566,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.5135,
"optimistic_value": 3.51,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:34.684841Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.048566,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:33.763709Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.0457908,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.307,
"optimistic_value": 2.3,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:15.962603Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.020814,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4e5b581684d4",
"realistic_value": 3.6335,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:41:52.882116Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4e5b581684d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0055504,
"output_skin_id": "skin-16044409b9f9",
"realistic_value": 2.4770000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.47,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 2.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:50:04.764312Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-16044409b9f9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.041628,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5399c334e3b4",
"realistic_value": 1.53,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop",
"conservative_value": 1.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:28.843443Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5399c334e3b4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b5823f30ab336de55d2101bd",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-4876ba10c2c4",
"listing_id": "516368436282001994",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4876ba10c2c4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:53:08.279443Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-4876ba10c2c4",
"listing_id": "622201718381080056",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4876ba10c2c4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:53:08.279443Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-4876ba10c2c4",
"listing_id": "508487136897766358",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4876ba10c2c4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:53:08.279443Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-f186f29dda0c",
"listing_id": "657104615563769652",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | CaliCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f186f29dda0c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:30:33.844199Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "524249787961811211",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:51.551762Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884292343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:55.445138Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "501731789729823857",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:55.445138Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "526501587736797929",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:14.908154Z"
},
{
"price": 1.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884286583",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:55.445138Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "518620235867474188",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:48.429008Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-italy:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Candy Apple 13.3% $3.63 Fraise Crane 15.0% $2.93 Anodized Navy 13.3% $2.48 Sky Mandala 15.0% $1.68 Earth Mandala 15.0% $1.20 Warm Blooded 15.0% $1.07 | $3.63 +137.5% | $1.89 +23.5% | 56.7% | +58.2% | $1.53 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Candy Apple 16.7% $3.63 Fraise Crane 12.5% $2.93 Anodized Navy 16.7% $2.48 Sky Mandala 12.5% $1.69 Earth Mandala 12.5% $1.20 Warm Blooded 12.5% $1.07 | $3.63 +135.9% | $1.93 +25.3% | 58.3% | +59.0% | $1.54 | — |
The Italy Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Candy Apple 20.0% $3.63 Fraise Crane 10.0% $2.93 Anodized Navy 20.0% $2.48 Sky Mandala 10.0% $1.69 Earth Mandala 10.0% $1.20 Warm Blooded 10.0% $1.07 | $3.63 +118.9% | $1.97 +18.8% | 60.0% | +55.4% | $1.66 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic  35.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion  35.0% $2.17 Pit Viper  30.0% $1.40 | $9.85 +167.7% | $4.63 +25.8% | 35.0% | +104.5% | $3.68 | — |