The Italy Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
CaliCamo
1x $0.16
Boreal Forest
3x $0.18
Coral Paisley
1x $0.05
Calligrafaux
3x $0.08
Picnic
2x $0.15
↓
Possible Outputs
Candy Apple
13.3% $3.63
Fraise Crane
15.0% $2.60
Anodized Navy
13.3% $2.48
Sky Mandala
15.0% $1.77
Earth Mandala
15.0% $1.20
Warm Blooded
15.0% $1.05
Max Win
$3.63 (+154.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.85 (+29.3%)
Win %
56.7%
Volatility
+71.2%
Cost
$1.43
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.43
Ask Price EV $1.85 (+29.3%)
Bid Price EV $1.74 (+21.7%)
Ask Profit $0.42 (+29.3%)
Bid Profit $0.31 (+21.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.11 (+7.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.42
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.31
Risk
Win Probability 56.7%
Loss Probability 43.3%
Best Case $3.63 (+154.1%)
Worst Case $0.31 (-78.0%)
Volatility +71.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 28.3%
Avg Win +$1.17
Avg Loss -$0.56
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.31 (-78.0%)
Std Dev $1.02
Avg Norm Float 0.2107
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 143h 17m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | CaliCamo
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest
—
Field-Tested
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux
—
Field-Tested
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 55M 59S //TOTAL COST $1.43 //ASK PRICE EV $1.85 //BID PRICE EV $1.74 //ASK PROFIT $0.42 (+29.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.31 (+21.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 56.7% //BEST CASE $3.63 //VOLATILITY +71.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
13.3%
$3.63
+$2.20
+154.1%
$3.60
+$2.17
+151.7%
$0.03
0.9%
—
BIG WIN
15.0%
$2.60
+$1.17
+82.1%
$2.37
+$0.94
+65.7%
$0.23
9.0%
—
BIG WIN
13.3%
$2.48
+$1.05
+73.2%
$2.47
+$1.04
+72.7%
$0.01
0.3%
—
WIN
15.0%
$1.77
+$0.34
+23.7%
$1.56
+$0.13
+9.1%
$0.21
11.8%
—
LOSS
15.0%
$1.20
-$0.23
-16.3%
$1.01
-$0.42
-29.4%
$0.19
15.7%
—
LOSS
15.0%
$1.05
-$0.38
-26.5%
$1.01
-$0.42
-29.4%
$0.04
3.9%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$0.31
-$1.12
-78.0%
$0.29
-$1.14
-79.7%
$0.02
7.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-italy|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.136968,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 2.6035,
"optimistic_value": 2.6,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 2.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:56.777445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.147504,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 1.7685,
"optimistic_value": 1.73,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.56,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:02.061877Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.147504,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 1.0505,
"optimistic_value": 1.04,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:53.671597Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.1390752,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 1.1975,
"optimistic_value": 1.18,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:55.397923Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.063216,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4e5b581684d4",
"realistic_value": 3.6335,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:41:52.882116Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4e5b581684d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0168576,
"output_skin_id": "skin-16044409b9f9",
"realistic_value": 2.4770000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.47,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 2.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:50:04.764312Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-16044409b9f9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.126432,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5399c334e3b4",
"realistic_value": 0.314,
"optimistic_value": 0.3,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop",
"conservative_value": 0.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:44:33.475735Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5399c334e3b4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b5823f30ab336de55d2101bd",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-f186f29dda0c",
"listing_id": "520872035662267476",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | CaliCamo (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | CaliCamo",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f186f29dda0c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:03.290996Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-7c750505c0aa",
"listing_id": "511864888984395801",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7c750505c0aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:38:45.689372Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-7c750505c0aa",
"listing_id": "528753335313855693",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7c750505c0aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:38:45.689372Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-7c750505c0aa",
"listing_id": "514115891842458342",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7c750505c0aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:38:45.689372Z"
},
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "521997988015876326",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:12.081594Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-2efacc35df16",
"listing_id": "511864888985117277",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2efacc35df16.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:03.778610Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-2efacc35df16",
"listing_id": "512990789044453199",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2efacc35df16.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:03.778610Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-2efacc35df16",
"listing_id": "645845544486527565",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2efacc35df16.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:03.778610Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "524249787961745403",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:06.295855Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "520872088106770728",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:06.295855Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-italy:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 15.0% $6.21 Candy Apple 13.3% $3.63 Sky Mandala 15.0% $3.51 Anodized Navy 13.3% $2.48 Earth Mandala 15.0% $2.31 Warm Blooded 15.0% $2.27 | $6.21 +101.0% | $3.16 +2.4% | 43.3% | +42.6% | $3.09 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Candy Apple 16.7% $3.63 Fraise Crane 12.5% $2.60 Anodized Navy 16.7% $2.48 Sky Mandala 12.5% $1.86 Earth Mandala 12.5% $1.20 Warm Blooded 12.5% $1.05 | $3.63 +139.0% | $1.91 +25.6% | 58.3% | +57.5% | $1.52 | — |
The Italy Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Candy Apple 3.3% $3.63 Fraise Crane 22.5% $2.60 Anodized Navy 3.3% $2.48 Sky Mandala 22.5% $1.77 Earth Mandala 22.5% $1.20 Warm Blooded 22.5% $1.05 | $3.63 +155.9% | $1.70 +20.0% | 51.7% | +48.8% | $1.42 | — |
The Italy Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Candy Apple 20.0% $3.63 Fraise Crane 10.0% $2.60 Anodized Navy 20.0% $2.48 Sky Mandala 10.0% $1.69 Earth Mandala 10.0% $1.20 Warm Blooded 10.0% $1.05 | $3.63 +113.7% | $1.94 +14.0% | 50.0% | +53.2% | $1.70 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic  45.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion  45.0% $2.15 Pit Viper  10.0% $1.40 | $9.85 +135.1% | $5.54 +32.2% | 45.0% | +93.2% | $4.19 | — |