The Clutch Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Grip
3x $0.15
Night Riot
2x $0.25
Fraise Crane
2x $0.35
Sky Mandala
2x $0.36
Warm Blooded
1x $0.50
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
25.0% $7.15
Sleeping Potion
25.0% $2.34
Moonrise
10.0% $1.28
Lionfish
10.0% $0.82
Arctic Wolf
10.0% $0.73
SWAG-7
10.0% $0.71
Max Win
$7.15 (+130.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.80 (-9.8%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+83.5%
Cost
$3.10
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.10
Ask Price EV $2.80 (-9.8%)
Bid Price EV $2.59 (-16.4%)
Ask Profit $-0.30 (-9.8%)
Bid Profit $-0.51 (-16.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.20 (+6.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.30
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.51
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $7.15 (+130.5%)
Worst Case $0.70 (-77.3%)
Volatility +83.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$4.05
Avg Loss -$1.75
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.70 (-77.3%)
Std Dev $2.59
Avg Norm Float 0.4465
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 148h 39m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Well-Worn
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Well-Worn
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Well-Worn
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Field-Tested
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Field-Tested
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 43M 01S //TOTAL COST $3.10 //ASK PRICE EV $2.80 //BID PRICE EV $2.59 //ASK PROFIT $-0.30 (-9.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.51 (-16.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $7.15 //VOLATILITY +83.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$7.15
+$4.05
+130.5%
$6.58
+$3.48
+112.3%
$0.57
7.9%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$2.34
-$0.76
-24.6%
$2.25
-$0.85
-27.4%
$0.09
3.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.28
-$1.82
-58.7%
$1.16
-$1.94
-62.6%
$0.12
9.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.82
-$2.28
-73.4%
$0.81
-$2.29
-73.9%
$0.01
1.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.73
-$2.37
-76.5%
$0.64
-$2.46
-79.4%
$0.09
12.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.71
-$2.39
-77.1%
$0.60
-$2.50
-80.6%
$0.11
15.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.70
-$2.40
-77.3%
$0.64
-$2.46
-79.4%
$0.06
9.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-19|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.312571,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.1455,
"optimistic_value": 6.96,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:36.373739Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.312571,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.3369999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 2.26,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:33.835182Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.2902445,
"output_skin_id": "skin-52971a3886a2",
"realistic_value": 1.2805,
"optimistic_value": 1.27,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:37:50.800531Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-52971a3886a2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.4108076,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0063cb51e43",
"realistic_value": 0.71,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7",
"conservative_value": 0.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:36.002665Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0063cb51e43.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.24559150000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-58651a482529",
"realistic_value": 0.8234999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.82,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Lionfish",
"conservative_value": 0.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Lionfish (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T14:46:22.743385Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58651a482529.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.357224,
"output_skin_id": "skin-85bee1ae1898",
"realistic_value": 0.7034999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wild Six",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:35.400668Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85bee1ae1898.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.357224,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a4ca18460f2c",
"realistic_value": 0.73,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:45:15.826449Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a4ca18460f2c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b515eb65cd8ca06d4d51dd1a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "497228243054851121",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Well-Worn)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:48.233050Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "525375740885272075",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Well-Worn)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:48.233050Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "492724538182845261",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Well-Worn)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:48.233050Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "511864941881444217",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:45.645222Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "502857689863237120",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:45.645222Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "508487242221897338",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:36.864216Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "524249840858844255",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:30.277331Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "523123888073133262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:30.277331Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "508487242221842258",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:13.646471Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "527627540537405768",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:40.277889Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-19:5+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $10.07 Moonrise 10.0% $2.25 Lionfish 10.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 10.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 10.0% $0.73 | $13.37 +155.1% | $6.44 +22.9% | 50.0% | +97.5% | $5.24 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 25.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $22.71 Moonrise 10.0% $5.34 Lionfish 10.0% $3.81 SWAG-7 10.0% $1.78 Arctic Wolf 10.0% $1.50 | $26.79 +99.0% | $13.76 +2.3% | 50.0% | +77.5% | $13.46 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $10.07 Moonrise 8.0% $2.25 Lionfish 8.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 8.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 8.0% $0.73 | $13.37 +117.3% | $7.49 +21.9% | 60.0% | +81.0% | $6.15 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $10.07 Moonrise 12.0% $2.25 Lionfish 12.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 12.0% $0.77 Arctic Wolf 12.0% $0.68 | $13.37 +203.2% | $5.37 +21.7% | 40.0% | +114.7% | $4.41 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $10.07 Moonrise 6.0% $2.25 Lionfish 6.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 6.0% $0.77 Wild Six 6.0% $0.70 | $13.37 +89.1% | $8.54 +20.8% | 70.0% | +66.1% | $7.07 | — |