The Clutch Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Night Riot
2x $0.26
Black Sand
1x $0.30
Oxide Blaze
1x $0.31
Grip
1x $0.31
Earth Mandala
3x $0.52
Warm Blooded
2x $0.63
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
25.0% $13.81
Sleeping Potion
25.0% $11.82
Moonrise
10.0% $2.25
Lionfish
10.0% $1.29
SWAG-7
10.0% $0.79
Wild Six
10.0% $0.73
Max Win
$13.81 (+160.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.98 (+31.7%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+111.2%
Cost
$5.30
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.30
Ask Price EV $6.98 (+31.7%)
Bid Price EV $5.95 (+12.2%)
Ask Profit $1.68 (+31.7%)
Bid Profit $0.65 (+12.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.03 (+19.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.68
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.65
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $13.81 (+160.5%)
Worst Case $0.67 (-87.4%)
Volatility +111.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$7.51
Avg Loss -$4.15
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.67 (-87.4%)
Std Dev $5.89
Avg Norm Float 0.2142
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 148h 29m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Field-Tested
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Black Sand
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Oxide Blaze
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.57 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 41M 53S //TOTAL COST $5.30 //ASK PRICE EV $6.98 //BID PRICE EV $5.95 //ASK PROFIT $1.68 (+31.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.65 (+12.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $13.81 //VOLATILITY +111.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$13.81
+$8.51
+160.5%
$12.05
+$6.75
+127.4%
$1.76
12.7%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$11.82
+$6.52
+123.0%
$9.69
+$4.39
+82.8%
$2.13
18.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.25
-$3.05
-57.6%
$2.09
-$3.21
-60.6%
$0.16
7.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.29
-$4.01
-75.7%
$1.04
-$4.26
-80.4%
$0.25
19.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.79
-$4.51
-85.1%
$0.72
-$4.58
-86.4%
$0.07
9.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.73
-$4.57
-86.2%
$0.64
-$4.66
-87.9%
$0.09
12.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.67
-$4.63
-87.4%
$0.64
-$4.66
-87.9%
$0.03
4.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-19|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.149926,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.807,
"optimistic_value": 13.8,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:25.996167Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.149926,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 11.8215,
"optimistic_value": 11.79,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:05:34.430115Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.139217,
"output_skin_id": "skin-52971a3886a2",
"realistic_value": 2.247,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:45.069175Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-52971a3886a2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19704560000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0063cb51e43",
"realistic_value": 0.791,
"optimistic_value": 0.77,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7",
"conservative_value": 0.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:08:49.235824Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0063cb51e43.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11779900000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-58651a482529",
"realistic_value": 1.287,
"optimistic_value": 1.28,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Lionfish",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Lionfish (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T10:40:25.221598Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58651a482529.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.17134400000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-85bee1ae1898",
"realistic_value": 0.7334999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wild Six",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:24.783065Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85bee1ae1898.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.17134400000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a4ca18460f2c",
"realistic_value": 0.6675,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:43.701047Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a4ca18460f2c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b515eb65cd8ca06d4d51dd1a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "502857689863237120",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:54:48.588923Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "518620122756030208",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:54:53.265306Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-cbffebebb7f3",
"listing_id": "527627487624397292",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Black Sand",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cbffebebb7f3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:29.335325Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-ae8080ca847c",
"listing_id": "520871291152034712",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Oxide Blaze",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ae8080ca847c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:22.488170Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "523123888073084050",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:05:59.015823Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "499479937455022969",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:40.551335Z"
},
{
"price": 0.57,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864723318275141",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:40.551335Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "525375688037712895",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:00:28.067611Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "494975741590866474",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:00:28.067611Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864941881352993",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:03:04.382534Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-19:5+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.81 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Moonrise 8.0% $2.25 Lionfish 8.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 8.0% $0.79 Wild Six 8.0% $0.73 | $13.81 +123.8% | $8.15 +32.0% | 60.0% | +87.2% | $6.17 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.81 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Moonrise 12.0% $2.25 Lionfish 12.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 12.0% $0.77 Wild Six 12.0% $0.73 | $13.81 +206.1% | $5.81 +28.8% | 40.0% | +121.7% | $4.51 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.54 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Moonrise 6.0% $2.25 Lionfish 6.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 6.0% $0.80 Arctic Wolf 6.0% $0.73 | $13.54 +82.4% | $9.22 +24.3% | 70.0% | +66.2% | $7.42 | — |