The Clutch Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Night Riot
1x $0.28
Oxide Blaze
1x $0.31
Grip
2x $0.31
Black Sand
1x $0.88
Sky Mandala
1x $1.58
Warm Blooded
4x $2.26
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
25.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
25.0% $22.71
Moonrise
10.0% $5.34
Lionfish
10.0% $3.81
SWAG-7
10.0% $1.78
Arctic Wolf
10.0% $1.50
Max Win
$26.79 (+99.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$13.76 (+2.3%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+82.7%
Cost
$13.46
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $13.46
Ask Price EV $13.76 (+2.3%)
Bid Price EV $12.79 (-5.0%)
Ask Profit $0.30 (+2.3%)
Bid Profit $-0.67 (-5.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.97 (+7.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.30
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.67
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $26.79 (+99.0%)
Worst Case $1.48 (-89.0%)
Volatility +82.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$11.29
Avg Loss -$10.68
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.48 (-89.0%)
Std Dev $11.13
Avg Norm Float 0.0997
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 29h 57m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Oxide Blaze
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Black Sand
—
Minimal Wear
$0.88 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.58 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.26 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 43M 01S //TOTAL COST $13.46 //ASK PRICE EV $13.76 //BID PRICE EV $12.79 //ASK PROFIT $0.30 (+2.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.67 (-5.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $26.79 //VOLATILITY +82.7% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$26.79
+$13.33
+99.0%
$26.14
+$12.68
+94.2%
$0.65
2.4%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$22.71
+$9.25
+68.7%
$19.85
+$6.39
+47.5%
$2.86
12.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$5.34
-$8.13
-60.4%
$5.26
-$8.20
-60.9%
$0.08
1.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.81
-$9.65
-71.7%
$3.65
-$9.81
-72.9%
$0.16
4.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.78
-$11.68
-86.8%
$1.64
-$11.82
-87.8%
$0.14
7.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.50
-$11.96
-88.9%
$1.28
-$12.18
-90.5%
$0.22
14.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.48
-$11.98
-89.0%
$1.11
-$12.35
-91.8%
$0.37
24.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-19|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.069811,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:26.424361Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.069811,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 22.713,
"optimistic_value": 22.37,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 19.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:26.017715Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06482450000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-52971a3886a2",
"realistic_value": 5.335,
"optimistic_value": 5.3,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise",
"conservative_value": 5.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:35.744278Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-52971a3886a2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0917516,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0063cb51e43",
"realistic_value": 1.777,
"optimistic_value": 1.77,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:00.741949Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0063cb51e43.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.054851500000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-58651a482529",
"realistic_value": 3.807,
"optimistic_value": 3.8,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Lionfish",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Lionfish (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:49:38.472934Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58651a482529.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.07978400000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-85bee1ae1898",
"realistic_value": 1.4769999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.47,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wild Six",
"conservative_value": 1.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wild Six (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T04:19:30.791389Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85bee1ae1898.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.07978400000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a4ca18460f2c",
"realistic_value": 1.5,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:55.893868Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a4ca18460f2c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b515eb65cd8ca06d4d51dd1a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "518620122756030208",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:18.978314Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-ae8080ca847c",
"listing_id": "520871291152034712",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Oxide Blaze",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ae8080ca847c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:59.503113Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "523123888073084050",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:55:48.183716Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "498354037510657507",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:55:48.183716Z"
},
{
"price": 0.88,
"skin_id": "skin-cbffebebb7f3",
"listing_id": "524249735517716595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Black Sand",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cbffebebb7f3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:23.294423Z"
},
{
"price": 1.58,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "500605942755471455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:13:27.372764Z"
},
{
"price": 2.26,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "526501640650543289",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:54.693009Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "503983589620254115",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:54.693009Z"
},
{
"price": 2.48,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "500605724248646447",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:54.693009Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:54.693009Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-19:5+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $10.07 Moonrise 10.0% $2.25 Lionfish 10.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 10.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 10.0% $0.73 | $13.37 +155.1% | $6.44 +22.9% | 50.0% | +97.5% | $5.24 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $10.07 Moonrise 8.0% $2.25 Lionfish 8.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 8.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 8.0% $0.73 | $13.37 +117.3% | $7.49 +21.9% | 60.0% | +81.0% | $6.15 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $10.07 Moonrise 12.0% $2.25 Lionfish 12.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 12.0% $0.77 Arctic Wolf 12.0% $0.68 | $13.37 +203.2% | $5.37 +21.7% | 40.0% | +114.7% | $4.41 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $10.07 Moonrise 6.0% $2.25 Lionfish 6.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 6.0% $0.77 Wild Six 6.0% $0.70 | $13.37 +89.1% | $8.54 +20.8% | 70.0% | +66.1% | $7.07 | — |