The Clutch Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Grip
2x $0.31
Night Riot
3x $1.85
Warm Blooded
5x $2.26
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
25.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
25.0% $22.71
SWAG-7
10.0% $10.59
Arctic Wolf
10.0% $9.64
Wild Six
10.0% $6.02
Moonrise
10.0% $5.34
Max Win
$26.79 (+34.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$15.92 (-20.3%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+45.8%
Cost
$19.96
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.96
Ask Price EV $15.92 (-20.3%)
Bid Price EV $14.94 (-25.1%)
Ask Profit $-4.04 (-20.3%)
Bid Profit $-5.02 (-25.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.97 (+4.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$4.04
Bid Slippage Buffer -$5.02
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $26.79 (+34.2%)
Worst Case $3.81 (-80.9%)
Volatility +45.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$4.79
Avg Loss -$12.88
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.81 (-80.9%)
Std Dev $9.14
Avg Norm Float 0.0694
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Stale
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 27m
Fill Confidence Medium
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Execution Sensitive
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Factory New
$1.85 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Factory New
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Factory New
$2.77 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.26 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.59 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 42M 51S //TOTAL COST $19.96 //ASK PRICE EV $15.92 //BID PRICE EV $14.94 //ASK PROFIT $-4.04 (-20.3%) //BID PROFIT $-5.02 (-25.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $26.79 //VOLATILITY +45.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
25.0%
$26.79
+$6.83
+34.2%
$26.14
+$6.18
+31.0%
$0.65
2.4%
—
PAPER WIN
25.0%
$22.71
+$2.75
+13.8%
$19.85
-$0.11
-0.6%
$2.86
12.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$10.59
-$9.37
-46.9%
$10.08
-$9.88
-49.5%
$0.51
4.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$9.64
-$10.32
-51.7%
$9.51
-$10.45
-52.4%
$0.13
1.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$6.02
-$13.94
-69.8%
$5.95
-$14.01
-70.2%
$0.07
1.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$5.34
-$14.63
-73.3%
$5.26
-$14.70
-73.6%
$0.08
1.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.81
-$16.15
-80.9%
$3.65
-$16.31
-81.7%
$0.16
4.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-19|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.048587,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:26.424361Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.048587,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 22.713,
"optimistic_value": 22.37,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 19.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:26.017715Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.045116500000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-52971a3886a2",
"realistic_value": 5.335,
"optimistic_value": 5.3,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise",
"conservative_value": 5.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:35.744278Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-52971a3886a2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0638572,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0063cb51e43",
"realistic_value": 10.5935,
"optimistic_value": 10.59,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7",
"conservative_value": 10.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:12.511539Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0063cb51e43.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0381755,
"output_skin_id": "skin-58651a482529",
"realistic_value": 3.807,
"optimistic_value": 3.8,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Lionfish",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Lionfish (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:49:38.472934Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58651a482529.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.055528,
"output_skin_id": "skin-85bee1ae1898",
"realistic_value": 6.0245,
"optimistic_value": 6,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wild Six",
"conservative_value": 5.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wild Six (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:52:41.115054Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85bee1ae1898.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.055528,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a4ca18460f2c",
"realistic_value": 9.641,
"optimistic_value": 9.62,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf",
"conservative_value": 9.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:55:41.371127Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a4ca18460f2c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b515eb65cd8ca06d4d51dd1a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "523123888073084050",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:55:48.183716Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "498354037510657507",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:55:48.183716Z"
},
{
"price": 1.85,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "498354089953989859",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:49.262071Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "494976224706225426",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:49.262071Z"
},
{
"price": 2.77,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "520872035663982948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:49.262071Z"
},
{
"price": 2.26,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "526501640650543289",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:54.693009Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "503983589620254115",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:54.693009Z"
},
{
"price": 2.48,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "500605724248646447",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:54.693009Z"
},
{
"price": 2.59,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "518620235868493708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:54.693009Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:54.693009Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-19:5+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $10.07 Moonrise 10.0% $2.25 Lionfish 10.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 10.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 10.0% $0.73 | $13.37 +155.1% | $6.44 +22.9% | 50.0% | +97.5% | $5.24 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 25.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $22.71 Moonrise 10.0% $5.34 Lionfish 10.0% $3.81 SWAG-7 10.0% $1.78 Arctic Wolf 10.0% $1.50 | $26.79 +99.0% | $13.76 +2.3% | 50.0% | +77.5% | $13.46 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $10.07 Moonrise 8.0% $2.25 Lionfish 8.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 8.0% $0.82 Arctic Wolf 8.0% $0.73 | $13.37 +117.3% | $7.49 +21.9% | 60.0% | +81.0% | $6.15 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $10.07 Moonrise 12.0% $2.25 Lionfish 12.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 12.0% $0.77 Arctic Wolf 12.0% $0.68 | $13.37 +203.2% | $5.37 +21.7% | 40.0% | +114.7% | $4.41 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $10.07 Moonrise 6.0% $2.25 Lionfish 6.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 6.0% $0.77 Wild Six 6.0% $0.70 | $13.37 +89.1% | $8.54 +20.8% | 70.0% | +66.1% | $7.07 | — |