The Danger Zone Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Modest Threat
1x $0.29
Fubar
1x $0.47
Black Sand
1x $0.52
Motorized
3x $0.18
Light Box
2x $0.21
Dark Sigil
2x $0.30
↓
Possible Outputs
Signal
6.0% $7.55
Nevermore
6.0% $7.11
Flashback
6.0% $6.05
Etch Lord
14.0% $4.45
Block-18
14.0% $4.19
Pipe Down
6.0% $3.40
Max Win
$7.55 (+133.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.88 (+20.1%)
Win %
66.0%
Volatility
+51.9%
Cost
$3.23
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.23
Ask Price EV $3.88 (+20.1%)
Bid Price EV $3.44 (+6.6%)
Ask Profit $0.65 (+20.1%)
Bid Profit $0.21 (+6.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.44 (+13.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.65
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.21
Risk
Win Probability 66.0%
Loss Probability 34.0%
Best Case $7.55 (+133.6%)
Worst Case $1.90 (-41.0%)
Volatility +51.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$1.50
Avg Loss -$1.01
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.90 (-41.0%)
Std Dev $1.68
Avg Norm Float 0.1400
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 153h 12m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP9 | Modest Threat
—
Field-Tested
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Fubar
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Black Sand
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 08M 33S //TOTAL COST $3.23 //ASK PRICE EV $3.88 //BID PRICE EV $3.44 //ASK PROFIT $0.65 (+20.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.21 (+6.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 66.0% //BEST CASE $7.55 //VOLATILITY +51.9% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$7.55
+$4.32
+133.6%
$6.50
+$3.27
+101.2%
$1.05
13.9%
—
BIG WIN
6.0%
$7.11
+$3.88
+120.2%
$5.90
+$2.67
+82.7%
$1.21
17.1%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$6.05
+$2.82
+87.3%
$5.35
+$2.12
+65.6%
$0.70
11.6%
—
WIN
14.0%
$4.45
+$1.22
+37.9%
$3.77
+$0.54
+16.7%
$0.68
15.3%
—
WIN
14.0%
$4.19
+$0.96
+29.7%
$3.88
+$0.65
+20.1%
$0.31
7.4%
—
PAPER WIN
6.0%
$3.40
+$0.17
+5.1%
$3.08
-$0.15
-4.6%
$0.32
9.3%
—
PAPER WIN
14.0%
$3.34
+$0.11
+3.5%
$2.85
-$0.38
-11.8%
$0.49
14.8%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$2.65
-$0.58
-18.0%
$2.60
-$0.63
-19.5%
$0.05
1.9%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$1.95
-$1.28
-39.5%
$1.67
-$1.56
-48.3%
$0.28
14.6%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.90
-$1.33
-41.0%
$1.85
-$1.38
-42.7%
$0.05
2.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-21|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.13998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 2.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:31:12.204578Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0940490625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.1905,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:50.971922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.13998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 4.4535,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 3.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:43.241962Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.13998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 3.3435,
"optimistic_value": 3.34,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 2.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:08.942639Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0866280228,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.9044999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 1.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:32.054019Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.090987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aa544d78f97f",
"realistic_value": 1.9545,
"optimistic_value": 1.93,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Scavenger",
"conservative_value": 1.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Scavenger (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:26:00.073569Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aa544d78f97f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-21f65eaf09eb",
"realistic_value": 7.5455,
"optimistic_value": 7.5,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Signal",
"conservative_value": 6.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:31:26.184919Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-21f65eaf09eb.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.125982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5bd6cfc7249e",
"realistic_value": 3.396,
"optimistic_value": 3.34,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipe Down",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:35.074497Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5bd6cfc7249e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.055992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0ba15d1b486",
"realistic_value": 7.1135,
"optimistic_value": 7.04,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Nevermore",
"conservative_value": 5.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:33.060154Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0ba15d1b486.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e44f13c59da",
"realistic_value": 6.0505,
"optimistic_value": 5.9,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Flashback",
"conservative_value": 5.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:37:18.380357Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e44f13c59da.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b35b9da5a75172478f69b3ef",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-53d8377fc006",
"listing_id": "525375522203968243",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Modest Threat (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Modest Threat",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53d8377fc006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:55.141088Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-876587e47bdc",
"listing_id": "498354089953387435",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Fubar",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-876587e47bdc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:31:19.364089Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-d85d77873f80",
"listing_id": "492724643507540685",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Black Sand",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d85d77873f80.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:39:11.852939Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "512990841908688587",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:22.970937Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514116741798137334",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:53.878953Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "527626690807043180",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:53.878953Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "505109489449485524",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:36:47.550108Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "494976443342801634",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:24:50.901899Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:24:50.901899Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "505108692508590428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:36:47.550108Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-21:3+collection-set-community-33:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Danger Zone Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Nevermore 6.0% $4.07 Signal 6.0% $3.49 Flashback 6.0% $3.00 Etch Lord 14.0% $2.34 Scavenger 6.0% $1.95 | $4.19 +81.4% | $2.44 +5.5% | 46.0% | +36.0% | $2.31 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Danger Zone Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Signal 10.0% $7.55 Nevermore 10.0% $7.11 Flashback 10.0% $6.05 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.46 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Pipe Down 10.0% $3.41 | $7.55 +111.4% | $4.26 +19.4% | 50.0% | +42.4% | $3.57 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Signal 8.0% $7.55 Nevermore 8.0% $7.11 Flashback 8.0% $6.05 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.46 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 Pipe Down 8.0% $3.41 | $7.55 +120.6% | $4.07 +19.0% | 48.0% | +42.1% | $3.42 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×6+The Kilowatt Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Signal 12.0% $7.55 Nevermore 12.0% $7.11 Flashback 12.0% $6.05 Etch Lord 8.0% $4.46 Block-18 8.0% $4.19 Pipe Down 12.0% $3.41 | $7.55 +100.7% | $4.45 +18.4% | 52.0% | +41.6% | $3.76 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×7+The Kilowatt Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Signal 14.0% $7.55 Nevermore 14.0% $7.11 Flashback 14.0% $6.05 Etch Lord 6.0% $4.46 Block-18 6.0% $4.19 Pipe Down 14.0% $3.41 | $7.55 +90.5% | $4.64 +17.2% | 54.0% | +40.2% | $3.96 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Nevermore 2.0% $7.11 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Signal 2.0% $3.49 Pipe Down 2.0% $3.40 Just Smile 18.0% $3.34 | $7.11 +147.0% | $3.36 +16.6% | 62.0% | +27.4% | $2.88 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 16.0% $8.90 Signal 4.0% $7.55 Nevermore 4.0% $7.11 Flashback 4.0% $6.05 Scavenger 4.0% $4.90 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 | $8.90 +108.8% | $4.91 +15.4% | 48.0% | +41.3% | $4.26 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Danger Zone Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  26.7% $37.06 Mecha Industries  6.7% $27.53 Jawbreaker  26.7% $14.90 Olympus  26.7% $14.32 Momentum  6.7% $9.89 Phosphor  6.7% $9.63 | $37.06 +97.4% | $20.81 +10.9% | 33.3% | +55.9% | $18.77 | — |