The Danger Zone Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Black Sand
2x $0.52
Danger Close
1x $2.03
Motorized
1x $0.35
Dark Sigil
2x $0.36
Slag
1x $0.37
Dezastre
1x $0.61
↓
Possible Outputs
Pipe Down
6.0% $14.98
Etch Lord
14.0% $13.06
Just Smile
14.0% $9.31
Block-18
14.0% $8.90
Hybrid
14.0% $7.89
Signal
6.0% $7.55
Max Win
$14.98 (+62.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.50 (-7.8%)
Win %
34.0%
Volatility
+33.5%
Cost
$9.22
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $9.22
Ask Price EV $8.50 (-7.8%)
Bid Price EV $7.55 (-18.1%)
Ask Profit $-0.72 (-7.8%)
Bid Profit $-1.67 (-18.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.94 (+10.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.72
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.67
Risk
Win Probability 34.0%
Loss Probability 66.0%
Best Case $14.98 (+62.4%)
Worst Case $4.13 (-55.2%)
Volatility +33.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 26.0%
Avg Win +$2.63
Avg Loss -$2.45
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.13 (-55.2%)
Std Dev $3.09
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 154h 9m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Black Sand
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Black Sand
—
Factory New
$1.81 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Danger Close
—
Factory New
$2.03 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Factory New
$1.56 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 06M 58S //TOTAL COST $9.22 //ASK PRICE EV $8.50 //BID PRICE EV $7.55 //ASK PROFIT $-0.72 (-7.8%) //BID PROFIT $-1.67 (-18.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 34.0% //BEST CASE $14.98 //VOLATILITY +33.5% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
6.0%
$14.98
+$5.76
+62.4%
$13.80
+$4.58
+49.7%
$1.17
7.8%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$13.06
+$3.84
+41.6%
$12.03
+$2.81
+30.5%
$1.03
7.9%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$9.31
+$0.09
+1.0%
$7.84
-$1.38
-15.0%
$1.47
15.8%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$8.90
-$0.32
-3.5%
$7.77
-$1.45
-15.7%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$7.89
-$1.33
-14.4%
$7.43
-$1.79
-19.4%
$0.46
5.8%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$7.55
-$1.67
-18.2%
$6.50
-$2.72
-29.5%
$1.05
13.9%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$7.11
-$2.11
-22.8%
$5.90
-$3.32
-36.0%
$1.21
17.1%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$6.12
-$3.10
-33.6%
$5.35
-$3.87
-42.0%
$0.77
12.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.90
-$4.32
-46.9%
$3.75
-$5.47
-59.3%
$1.14
23.4%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$4.13
-$5.09
-55.2%
$3.76
-$5.46
-59.2%
$0.37
8.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-21|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:13:57.746840Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0470178125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.314,
"optimistic_value": 9.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:13:54.948744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0433078228,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.1265,
"optimistic_value": 4.06,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:23.384975Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.045487,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aa544d78f97f",
"realistic_value": 4.895,
"optimistic_value": 4.79,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Scavenger",
"conservative_value": 3.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Scavenger (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:13.789792Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aa544d78f97f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.03499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-21f65eaf09eb",
"realistic_value": 7.5455,
"optimistic_value": 7.5,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Signal",
"conservative_value": 6.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:31:26.184919Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-21f65eaf09eb.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.062982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5bd6cfc7249e",
"realistic_value": 14.975,
"optimistic_value": 14.52,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipe Down",
"conservative_value": 13.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:30:18.926098Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5bd6cfc7249e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.027992000000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0ba15d1b486",
"realistic_value": 7.1135,
"optimistic_value": 7.04,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Nevermore",
"conservative_value": 5.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:33.060154Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0ba15d1b486.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.03499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e44f13c59da",
"realistic_value": 6.122,
"optimistic_value": 6.01,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Flashback",
"conservative_value": 5.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:17:34.097598Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e44f13c59da.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b35b9da5a75172478f69b3ef",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-d85d77873f80",
"listing_id": "492724643507540685",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Black Sand",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d85d77873f80.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:30:37.482031Z"
},
{
"price": 1.81,
"skin_id": "skin-d85d77873f80",
"listing_id": "529878490360105548",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Black Sand",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d85d77873f80.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:50.428226Z"
},
{
"price": 2.03,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5985c30bd8",
"listing_id": "516367691487664286",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Danger Close",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5985c30bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:31.383548Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:17:43.162031Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "505108692508590428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:28:41.601363Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "515242641502660669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:36.370297Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "515241791654317225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:04.424064Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "622201718386433724",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:29:04.799490Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:26:02.839695Z"
},
{
"price": 1.56,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "527627322002854856",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:39:57.782748Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-21:3+collection-set-community-33:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Danger Zone Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Signal 6.0% $7.55 Nevermore 6.0% $7.11 Flashback 6.0% $6.12 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.43 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Pipe Down 6.0% $3.40 | $7.55 +133.6% | $3.88 +20.1% | 66.0% | +41.6% | $3.23 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Nevermore 6.0% $4.07 Signal 6.0% $3.49 Flashback 6.0% $3.00 Etch Lord 14.0% $2.35 Scavenger 6.0% $1.95 | $4.19 +90.5% | $2.44 +10.7% | 46.0% | +37.9% | $2.20 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Danger Zone Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Signal 8.0% $7.55 Nevermore 8.0% $7.11 Flashback 8.0% $6.12 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.43 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 Pipe Down 8.0% $3.40 | $7.55 +122.6% | $4.07 +20.1% | 56.0% | +42.7% | $3.39 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×6+The Kilowatt Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Signal 12.0% $7.55 Nevermore 12.0% $7.11 Flashback 12.0% $6.12 Etch Lord 8.0% $4.43 Block-18 8.0% $4.19 Pipe Down 12.0% $3.40 | $7.55 +102.8% | $4.46 +19.8% | 52.0% | +42.2% | $3.72 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Signal 10.0% $7.55 Nevermore 10.0% $7.11 Flashback 10.0% $6.12 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.43 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Pipe Down 10.0% $3.40 | $7.55 +112.0% | $4.26 +19.8% | 50.0% | +42.7% | $3.56 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Nevermore 2.0% $7.11 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.43 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Signal 2.0% $3.49 Pipe Down 2.0% $3.40 Just Smile 18.0% $3.32 | $7.11 +151.4% | $3.35 +18.3% | 62.0% | +27.9% | $2.83 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×7+The Kilowatt Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Signal 14.0% $7.55 Nevermore 14.0% $7.11 Flashback 14.0% $6.12 Etch Lord 6.0% $4.43 Block-18 6.0% $4.19 Pipe Down 14.0% $3.40 | $7.55 +91.0% | $4.65 +17.7% | 54.0% | +40.5% | $3.95 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Signal 4.0% $7.55 Nevermore 4.0% $7.11 Flashback 4.0% $6.12 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.43 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Pipe Down 4.0% $3.40 | $7.55 +138.0% | $3.69 +16.3% | 64.0% | +37.8% | $3.17 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Danger Zone Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  23.3% $37.06 Mecha Industries  10.0% $27.53 Jawbreaker  23.3% $14.90 Olympus  23.3% $14.32 Momentum  10.0% $9.89 Phosphor  10.0% $9.63 | $37.06 +103.4% | $20.17 +10.7% | 33.3% | +57.1% | $18.22 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Well-Worn ST | Inheritance  35.0% $135.61 Asiimov  15.0% $98.82 Neo-Noir  15.0% $78.19 Chrome Cannon  35.0% $50.99 | $135.61 +60.1% | $91.86 +8.5% | 50.0% | +42.4% | $84.68 | — |