The Genesis Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Caged
3x $0.14
Bullfrog
1x $0.19
Shredded
1x $0.26
Red Tide
3x $0.28
Rose Hex
2x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
20.0% $5.01
Glitched Paint
20.0% $2.96
Liquidation
8.0% $2.49
Bleeding Edge
20.0% $2.10
Cat Fight
8.0% $0.96
Continuum
8.0% $0.93
Max Win
$5.01 (+91.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.50 (-4.6%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+56.1%
Cost
$2.62
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.62
Ask Price EV $2.50 (-4.6%)
Bid Price EV $2.30 (-12.0%)
Ask Profit $-0.12 (-4.6%)
Bid Profit $-0.32 (-12.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.20 (+7.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.12
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.32
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $5.01 (+91.1%)
Worst Case $0.83 (-68.3%)
Volatility +56.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 32.0%
Avg Win +$1.36
Avg Loss -$1.11
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.83 (-68.3%)
Std Dev $1.47
Avg Norm Float 0.4485
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 142h 4m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 03M 06S //TOTAL COST $2.62 //ASK PRICE EV $2.50 //BID PRICE EV $2.30 //ASK PROFIT $-0.12 (-4.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.32 (-12.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $5.01 //VOLATILITY +56.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$5.01
+$2.39
+91.1%
$4.66
+$2.04
+77.9%
$0.35
6.9%
—
SMALL WIN
20.0%
$2.96
+$0.34
+13.1%
$2.76
+$0.14
+5.3%
$0.20
6.8%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$2.49
-$0.13
-4.8%
$2.20
-$0.42
-16.0%
$0.29
11.8%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$2.10
-$0.52
-19.8%
$1.91
-$0.71
-27.1%
$0.19
9.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.96
-$1.66
-63.2%
$0.82
-$1.80
-68.7%
$0.14
14.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.93
-$1.69
-64.5%
$0.82
-$1.80
-68.7%
$0.11
11.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.85
-$1.77
-67.4%
$0.83
-$1.79
-68.3%
$0.02
2.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.83
-$1.79
-68.3%
$0.81
-$1.81
-69.1%
$0.02
2.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.3363375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 5.0065,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 4.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.975888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.30046150000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 2.9619999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 2.92,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 2.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:19:17.139135Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.26907,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.1,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:51.823466Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.44845,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 0.8534999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.85,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 0.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:31:00.709077Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.44845,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 2.4935,
"optimistic_value": 2.49,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 2.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:16.804583Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.44845,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 0.964,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T05:51:56.092922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.44845,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 0.8305,
"optimistic_value": 0.82,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 0.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:35.208675Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.44845,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 0.9305,
"optimistic_value": 0.92,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:07.840943Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b2fd99d16a1c5e99d493dac7",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "526501587737469509",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:19:10.940661Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "494976390476880294",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:38.235152Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "510738989040754918",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:09:07.801760Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "518620235869812748",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:38.235152Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "496102290328488011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:01.523063Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "509613089304634059",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:43.923394Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "498353293087104787",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:43.923394Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "511864091789660997",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:43.923394Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:10.920140Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:10.920140Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 20.0% $33.42 Glitched Paint 20.0% $17.17 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $16.98 Liquidation 8.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 8.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 8.0% $2.14 | $33.42 +153.4% | $14.80 +12.2% | 60.0% | +76.1% | $13.19 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Glitched Paint 20.0% $5.03 Mulberry 20.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $2.10 Liquidation 8.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 8.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 8.0% $0.74 | $5.03 +106.9% | $2.71 +11.7% | 40.0% | +67.7% | $2.43 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.59 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Ocular 10.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +278.7% | $5.60 +33.1% | 50.0% | +112.5% | $4.21 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.59 Liquidation 6.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 6.0% $1.13 Ocular 6.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +190.9% | $7.17 +30.9% | 70.0% | +88.5% | $5.48 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.59 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Ocular 12.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +328.5% | $4.82 +29.5% | 52.0% | +122.0% | $3.72 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.59 Liquidation 4.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 4.0% $1.13 Ocular 4.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +157.5% | $7.96 +28.6% | 53.3% | +77.6% | $6.19 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.10 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.34 Liquidation 2.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 2.0% $1.13 Ocular 2.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +127.4% | $8.68 +23.9% | 60.0% | +67.9% | $7.01 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.59 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Ocular 14.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +381.6% | $4.03 +21.8% | 44.0% | +127.2% | $3.31 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 3.3% $15.94 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Glitched Paint 3.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $5.34 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 18.0% $2.14 | $15.94 +341.6% | $3.85 +6.7% | 28.0% | +82.6% | $3.61 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Nouveau Rouge  20.0% $52.14 Ice Coaled  26.7% $24.72 Smoking Kills  26.7% $19.73 Mirror Mosaic  26.7% $17.14 | $52.14 +110.9% | $26.85 +8.6% | 46.7% | +52.4% | $24.72 | — |