The Genesis Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Broken Record
3x $1.35
Bullfrog
1x $1.50
Blush Pour
1x $1.67
Shredded
3x $1.78
Rose Hex
1x $1.86
Arsenic Spill
1x $2.24
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
20.0% $33.42
Liquidation
8.0% $19.42
Glitched Paint
20.0% $17.17
Bleeding Edge
20.0% $16.98
Cat Fight
8.0% $6.50
Angel Eyes
8.0% $6.27
Max Win
$33.42 (+72.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.06 (-11.7%)
Win %
28.0%
Volatility
+49.5%
Cost
$19.33
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.33
Ask Price EV $17.06 (-11.7%)
Bid Price EV $16.20 (-16.2%)
Ask Profit $-2.27 (-11.7%)
Bid Profit $-3.13 (-16.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.87 (+4.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.27
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.13
Risk
Win Probability 28.0%
Loss Probability 72.0%
Best Case $33.42 (+72.9%)
Worst Case $6.09 (-68.5%)
Volatility +49.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 32.0%
Avg Win +$10.09
Avg Loss -$7.07
Bottom 5% Outcome $6.09 (-68.5%)
Std Dev $9.56
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 143h 4m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Factory New
$1.35 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Factory New
$1.38 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Factory New
$1.50 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Factory New
$2.41 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.78 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Arsenic Spill
—
Factory New
$2.24 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$3.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 17S //TOTAL COST $19.33 //ASK PRICE EV $17.06 //BID PRICE EV $16.20 //ASK PROFIT $-2.27 (-11.7%) //BID PROFIT $-3.13 (-16.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 28.0% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +49.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$33.42
+$14.09
+72.9%
$31.48
+$12.15
+62.9%
$1.94
5.8%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$19.42
+$0.09
+0.4%
$16.07
-$3.26
-16.9%
$3.35
17.2%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$17.17
-$2.17
-11.2%
$16.69
-$2.64
-13.7%
$0.47
2.8%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$16.98
-$2.35
-12.2%
$16.48
-$2.85
-14.7%
$0.50
2.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$6.50
-$12.83
-66.4%
$6.35
-$12.98
-67.1%
$0.15
2.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$6.27
-$13.06
-67.6%
$6.21
-$13.12
-67.9%
$0.06
1.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$6.13
-$13.20
-68.3%
$6.12
-$13.21
-68.3%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$6.09
-$13.24
-68.5%
$6.07
-$13.26
-68.6%
$0.02
0.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.052455,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.04685980000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 17.165,
"optimistic_value": 16.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:08.704090Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.041964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 6.27,
"optimistic_value": 6.27,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:47.517696Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 19.4155,
"optimistic_value": 19.37,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 16.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:11:14.220331Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 6.5005,
"optimistic_value": 6.49,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 6.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:16.470098Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 6.09,
"optimistic_value": 6.09,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 6.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:13.538626Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 6.13,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:33.085718Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b2fd99d16a1c5e99d493dac7",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.35,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "490472790736724379",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:15.861375Z"
},
{
"price": 1.38,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "511864836540599481",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:15.861375Z"
},
{
"price": 1.5,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "524249787961760595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:00.327744Z"
},
{
"price": 2.41,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "521997988014612582",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:15.861375Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:55.143615Z"
},
{
"price": 1.78,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "499479989896313401",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:31.452519Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "506235389468941512",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:31.452519Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:45.007635Z"
},
{
"price": 2.24,
"skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"listing_id": "528753387757738845",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:25.825646Z"
},
{
"price": 3.34,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "529879121829916716",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:31.452519Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 20.0% $33.42 Glitched Paint 20.0% $17.17 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $16.98 Liquidation 8.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 8.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 8.0% $2.14 | $33.42 +153.4% | $14.80 +12.2% | 60.0% | +76.1% | $13.19 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Glitched Paint 20.0% $5.03 Mulberry 20.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $2.10 Liquidation 8.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 8.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 8.0% $0.74 | $5.03 +106.9% | $2.71 +11.7% | 40.0% | +67.7% | $2.43 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.59 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Ocular 10.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +278.7% | $5.60 +33.1% | 50.0% | +112.5% | $4.21 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.59 Liquidation 6.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 6.0% $1.13 Ocular 6.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +190.9% | $7.17 +30.9% | 70.0% | +88.5% | $5.48 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.59 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Ocular 12.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +328.5% | $4.82 +29.5% | 52.0% | +122.0% | $3.72 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.59 Liquidation 4.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 4.0% $1.13 Ocular 4.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +157.5% | $7.96 +28.6% | 53.3% | +77.6% | $6.19 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.10 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.34 Liquidation 2.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 2.0% $1.13 Ocular 2.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +127.4% | $8.68 +23.9% | 60.0% | +67.9% | $7.01 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.59 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Ocular 14.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +381.6% | $4.03 +21.8% | 44.0% | +127.2% | $3.31 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 3.3% $15.94 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Glitched Paint 3.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $5.34 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 18.0% $2.14 | $15.94 +341.6% | $3.85 +6.7% | 28.0% | +82.6% | $3.61 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Nouveau Rouge  20.0% $52.14 Ice Coaled  26.7% $24.72 Smoking Kills  26.7% $19.73 Mirror Mosaic  26.7% $17.14 | $52.14 +110.9% | $26.85 +8.6% | 46.7% | +52.4% | $24.72 | — |