The Genesis Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Trigger Discipline
1x $0.60
Red Wing
1x $0.69
MAGnitude
1x $0.78
Bullfrog
1x $1.50
Blush Pour
3x $0.98
Shredded
2x $1.78
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
20.0% $33.42
Glitched Paint
20.0% $17.17
Bleeding Edge
20.0% $16.98
Liquidation
8.0% $7.67
Cat Fight
8.0% $2.28
Angel Eyes
8.0% $2.14
Max Win
$33.42 (+153.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$14.80 (+12.2%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+85.4%
Cost
$13.19
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $13.19
Ask Price EV $14.80 (+12.2%)
Bid Price EV $14.11 (+7.0%)
Ask Profit $1.61 (+12.2%)
Bid Profit $0.92 (+7.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.69 (+5.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.61
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.92
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $33.42 (+153.4%)
Worst Case $2.00 (-84.8%)
Volatility +85.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$9.33
Avg Loss -$9.96
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.00 (-84.8%)
Std Dev $11.27
Avg Norm Float 0.0932
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 143h 5m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Trigger Discipline
—
Minimal Wear
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Minimal Wear
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | MAGnitude
—
Minimal Wear
$0.78 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Factory New
$1.50 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.98 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.78 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 03M 07S //TOTAL COST $13.19 //ASK PRICE EV $14.80 //BID PRICE EV $14.11 //ASK PROFIT $1.61 (+12.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.92 (+7.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +85.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$33.42
+$20.23
+153.4%
$31.48
+$18.29
+138.7%
$1.94
5.8%
—
WIN
20.0%
$17.17
+$3.97
+30.1%
$16.69
+$3.50
+26.5%
$0.47
2.8%
—
WIN
20.0%
$16.98
+$3.79
+28.7%
$16.48
+$3.29
+24.9%
$0.50
2.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$7.67
-$5.52
-41.9%
$6.71
-$6.48
-49.1%
$0.96
12.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.28
-$10.91
-82.7%
$2.04
-$11.15
-84.5%
$0.24
10.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.14
-$11.05
-83.8%
$2.03
-$11.16
-84.6%
$0.11
5.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.05
-$11.14
-84.5%
$2.03
-$11.16
-84.6%
$0.02
1.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.00
-$11.19
-84.8%
$1.99
-$11.20
-84.9%
$0.01
0.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.0699075,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.062450700000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 17.165,
"optimistic_value": 16.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:08.704090Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.055926,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09321,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 2.14,
"optimistic_value": 2.14,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 2.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:34.913684Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09321,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 7.667,
"optimistic_value": 7.66,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 6.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.771865Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09321,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 2.284,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:41.365735Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09321,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 2.0505,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 2.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:58:51.296151Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09321,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 2,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:02.951940Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b2fd99d16a1c5e99d493dac7",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-ab9a15ef8110",
"listing_id": "654852815710192099",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Trigger Discipline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab9a15ef8110.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:24.329363Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "519745391330807492",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:58:59.638198Z"
},
{
"price": 0.78,
"skin_id": "skin-e8947585ba24",
"listing_id": "519745391315593064",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8947585ba24.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:24.291578Z"
},
{
"price": 1.5,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "524249787961760595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:00.327744Z"
},
{
"price": 0.98,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "510738989040706534",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:55.143615Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:55.143615Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:55.143615Z"
},
{
"price": 1.78,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "499479989896313401",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:31.452519Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "506235389468941512",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:31.452519Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:45.007635Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Glitched Paint 20.0% $5.03 Mulberry 20.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $2.10 Liquidation 8.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 8.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 8.0% $0.74 | $5.03 +106.9% | $2.71 +11.7% | 40.0% | +67.7% | $2.43 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.59 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Ocular 10.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +278.7% | $5.60 +33.1% | 50.0% | +112.5% | $4.21 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.59 Liquidation 6.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 6.0% $1.13 Ocular 6.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +190.9% | $7.17 +30.9% | 70.0% | +88.5% | $5.48 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.59 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Ocular 12.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +328.5% | $4.82 +29.5% | 52.0% | +122.0% | $3.72 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.59 Liquidation 4.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 4.0% $1.13 Ocular 4.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +157.5% | $7.96 +28.6% | 53.3% | +77.6% | $6.19 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.10 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.34 Liquidation 2.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 2.0% $1.13 Ocular 2.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +127.4% | $8.68 +23.9% | 60.0% | +67.9% | $7.01 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.59 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Ocular 14.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +381.6% | $4.03 +21.8% | 44.0% | +127.2% | $3.31 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 3.3% $15.94 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Glitched Paint 3.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $5.34 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 18.0% $2.14 | $15.94 +341.6% | $3.85 +6.7% | 28.0% | +82.6% | $3.61 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Nouveau Rouge  20.0% $52.14 Ice Coaled  26.7% $24.72 Smoking Kills  26.7% $19.73 Mirror Mosaic  26.7% $17.14 | $52.14 +110.9% | $26.85 +8.6% | 46.7% | +52.4% | $24.72 | — |