The Genesis Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Red Wing
1x $0.13
Caged
2x $0.14
Bullfrog
1x $0.19
Shredded
2x $0.26
Red Tide
3x $0.28
Rose Hex
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Glitched Paint
20.0% $5.03
Mulberry
20.0% $4.72
Bleeding Edge
20.0% $2.10
Liquidation
8.0% $1.36
Cat Fight
8.0% $0.80
Angel Eyes
8.0% $0.74
Max Win
$5.03 (+106.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.71 (+11.7%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+75.4%
Cost
$2.43
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.43
Ask Price EV $2.71 (+11.7%)
Bid Price EV $2.37 (-2.3%)
Ask Profit $0.28 (+11.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.06 (-2.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.34 (+14.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.28
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.06
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $5.03 (+106.9%)
Worst Case $0.66 (-72.7%)
Volatility +75.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$2.45
Avg Loss -$1.16
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.66 (-72.7%)
Std Dev $1.83
Avg Norm Float 0.5686
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 142h 23m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 03M 06S //TOTAL COST $2.43 //ASK PRICE EV $2.71 //BID PRICE EV $2.37 //ASK PROFIT $0.28 (+11.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.06 (-2.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $5.03 //VOLATILITY +75.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$5.03
+$2.60
+106.9%
$4.61
+$2.18
+89.7%
$0.42
8.3%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$4.72
+$2.29
+94.4%
$3.86
+$1.43
+58.8%
$0.86
18.3%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$2.10
-$0.33
-13.6%
$1.91
-$0.52
-21.4%
$0.19
9.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.36
-$1.07
-44.0%
$1.17
-$1.26
-51.9%
$0.19
14.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.80
-$1.63
-66.9%
$0.66
-$1.77
-72.8%
$0.14
17.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.74
-$1.69
-69.5%
$0.63
-$1.80
-74.1%
$0.11
14.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.73
-$1.70
-69.8%
$0.62
-$1.81
-74.5%
$0.11
15.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.66
-$1.77
-72.7%
$0.64
-$1.79
-73.7%
$0.02
3.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.426435,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 4.724,
"optimistic_value": 4.71,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 3.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:57:01.597106Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.3809486,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 5.0285,
"optimistic_value": 4.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 4.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:13.853496Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.34114799999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.1,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:51.823466Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.56858,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 0.74,
"optimistic_value": 0.74,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 0.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T20:59:55.865803Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.56858,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 1.3605,
"optimistic_value": 1.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 1.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:14.514541Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.56858,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 0.8035,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T16:04:54.060260Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.56858,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 0.7334999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:19:30.249155Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.56858,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 0.664,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:33.320143Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b2fd99d16a1c5e99d493dac7",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "499479989896194637",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:19:30.220522Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "526501587737469509",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:19:10.940661Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "494976390476880294",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:38.235152Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "510738989040754918",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:09:07.801760Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "496102290328488011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:01.523063Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "527627435178804896",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:01.523063Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "509613089304634059",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:43.923394Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "498353293087104787",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:43.923394Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "511864091789660997",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:43.923394Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:10.920140Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 20.0% $33.42 Glitched Paint 20.0% $17.17 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $16.98 Liquidation 8.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 8.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 8.0% $2.14 | $33.42 +153.4% | $14.80 +12.2% | 60.0% | +76.1% | $13.19 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.59 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Ocular 10.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +278.7% | $5.60 +33.1% | 50.0% | +112.5% | $4.21 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.59 Liquidation 6.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 6.0% $1.13 Ocular 6.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +190.9% | $7.17 +30.9% | 70.0% | +88.5% | $5.48 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.59 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Ocular 12.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +328.5% | $4.82 +29.5% | 52.0% | +122.0% | $3.72 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.59 Liquidation 4.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 4.0% $1.13 Ocular 4.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +157.5% | $7.96 +28.6% | 53.3% | +77.6% | $6.19 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.10 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.34 Liquidation 2.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 2.0% $1.13 Ocular 2.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +127.4% | $8.68 +23.9% | 60.0% | +67.9% | $7.01 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.59 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Ocular 14.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +381.6% | $4.03 +21.8% | 44.0% | +127.2% | $3.31 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 3.3% $15.94 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Glitched Paint 3.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $5.34 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 18.0% $2.14 | $15.94 +341.6% | $3.85 +6.7% | 28.0% | +82.6% | $3.61 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Nouveau Rouge  20.0% $52.14 Ice Coaled  26.7% $24.72 Smoking Kills  26.7% $19.73 Mirror Mosaic  26.7% $17.14 | $52.14 +110.9% | $26.85 +8.6% | 46.7% | +52.4% | $24.72 | — |