The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Pipsqueak
4x $0.42
Teal Graf
1x $0.74
Metallic Squeezer
2x $0.84
Wurst Hölle
1x $1.17
Warm Blooded
2x $1.06
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
10.0% $12.78
Sleeping Potion
10.0% $11.82
Eye of Zapems
26.7% $10.74
Sweet Little Angels
26.7% $10.46
Monster Melt
26.7% $8.63
Max Win
$12.78 (+44.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.41 (+17.9%)
Win %
73.3%
Volatility
+14.5%
Cost
$8.83
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $8.83
Ask Price EV $10.41 (+17.9%)
Bid Price EV $9.94 (+12.6%)
Ask Profit $1.58 (+17.9%)
Bid Profit $1.11 (+12.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.47 (+5.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.58
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.11
Risk
Win Probability 73.3%
Loss Probability 26.7%
Best Case $12.78 (+44.7%)
Worst Case $8.63 (-2.3%)
Volatility +14.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$2.23
Avg Loss -$0.20
Bottom 5% Outcome $8.63 (-2.3%)
Std Dev $1.28
Avg Norm Float 0.1757
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 50h 29m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Speculative Upside · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.74 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Minimal Wear
$0.84 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Minimal Wear
$1.03 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.06 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.26 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 12M 39S //TOTAL COST $8.83 //ASK PRICE EV $10.41 //BID PRICE EV $9.94 //ASK PROFIT $1.58 (+17.9%) //BID PROFIT $1.11 (+12.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 73.3% //BEST CASE $12.78 //VOLATILITY +14.5% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
10.0%
$12.78
+$3.95
+44.7%
$12.04
+$3.21
+36.4%
$0.74
5.8%
—
WIN
10.0%
$11.82
+$2.99
+33.9%
$9.69
+$0.86
+9.7%
$2.13
18.0%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$10.74
+$1.91
+21.6%
$10.49
+$1.66
+18.8%
$0.25
2.3%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Minimal Wear | ƒ 0.144074
The Overpass 2024 Collection
WIN
26.7%
$10.46
+$1.63
+18.5%
$10.40
+$1.57
+17.8%
$0.06
0.6%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$8.63
-$0.20
-2.3%
$8.25
-$0.58
-6.6%
$0.38
4.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.149345,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 10.7375,
"optimistic_value": 10.72,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 10.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:21.406617Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.14407399999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 10.463500000000002,
"optimistic_value": 10.46,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 10.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:21.764315Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.131775,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 8.627,
"optimistic_value": 8.48,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 8.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:29.709197Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.12298999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 12.776,
"optimistic_value": 12.3,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:22.725172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.12298999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 11.8215,
"optimistic_value": 11.79,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b2c07f0d72374011c5621a4f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "517494388633440706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:47.264701Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "509613089303435079",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:47.264701Z"
},
{
"price": 0.74,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "523123835627757262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:16:36.156449Z"
},
{
"price": 0.84,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "502857524063952856",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:36.381438Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "525374890942549699",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:47.264701Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "518619491421941344",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:47.264701Z"
},
{
"price": 1.03,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "596305411430770513",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:36.381438Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "523123888072288378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:33.179124Z"
},
{
"price": 1.06,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "525375688036846015",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:57.848447Z"
},
{
"price": 1.26,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "510738823413937978",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:57.848447Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:8+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 10.0% $7.64 Eye of Zapems 26.7% $4.33 Monster Melt 26.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $3.57 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $2.56 | $7.64 +108.6% | $4.19 +14.4% | 63.3% | +34.3% | $3.66 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 26.7% $27.54 Exothermic 10.0% $26.56 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $25.66 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $24.63 Monster Melt 26.7% $20.12 | $27.54 +14.3% | $24.67 +2.4% | 73.3% | +12.0% | $24.10 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 6.7% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 6.7% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $3.08 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.13 | $9.85 +142.6% | $5.47 +34.7% | 40.0% | +88.9% | $4.06 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $2.91 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.14 | $9.85 +145.0% | $5.20 +29.3% | 35.0% | +86.0% | $4.02 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 30.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 13.3% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $3.08 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.11 | $9.85 +154.5% | $4.94 +27.7% | 43.3% | +84.4% | $3.87 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 25.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 16.7% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 16.7% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $3.08 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.11 | $9.85 +162.0% | $4.68 +24.6% | 41.7% | +80.9% | $3.76 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 20.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 20.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $3.57 Eye of Zapems 20.0% $3.12 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $2.14 | $9.85 +164.8% | $4.53 +21.8% | 40.0% | +73.3% | $3.72 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 5.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $11.82 Eye of Zapems 30.0% $10.74 Sweet Little Angels 30.0% $10.46 Monster Melt 30.0% $8.63 | $13.33 +54.2% | $10.21 +18.1% | 70.0% | +14.0% | $8.64 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 15.0% $7.64 Eye of Zapems 23.3% $4.33 Monster Melt 23.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $3.57 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.56 | $7.64 +106.9% | $4.30 +16.5% | 61.7% | +40.9% | $3.69 | — |