The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Wurst Hölle
5x $1.18
Teal Graf
2x $2.24
Metallic Squeezer
1x $5.24
Warm Blooded
2x $2.70
↓
Possible Outputs
Eye of Zapems
26.7% $27.54
Exothermic
10.0% $26.79
Sweet Little Angels
26.7% $25.66
Sleeping Potion
10.0% $24.63
Monster Melt
26.7% $20.07
Max Win
$27.54 (+15.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$24.68 (+3.1%)
Win %
73.3%
Volatility
+12.2%
Cost
$23.94
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $23.94
Ask Price EV $24.68 (+3.1%)
Bid Price EV $24.08 (+0.6%)
Ask Profit $0.74 (+3.1%)
Bid Profit $0.14 (+0.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.60 (+2.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.74
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.14
Risk
Win Probability 73.3%
Loss Probability 26.7%
Best Case $27.54 (+15.0%)
Worst Case $20.07 (-16.1%)
Volatility +12.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$2.42
Avg Loss -$3.87
Bottom 5% Outcome $20.07 (-16.1%)
Std Dev $2.92
Avg Norm Float 0.0822
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 63h 9m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Ask-Side Flip · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.18 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.20 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Factory New
$2.24 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Factory New
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Factory New
$5.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$4.02 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 08M 29S //TOTAL COST $23.94 //ASK PRICE EV $24.68 //BID PRICE EV $24.08 //ASK PROFIT $0.74 (+3.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.14 (+0.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 73.3% //BEST CASE $27.54 //VOLATILITY +12.2% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$27.54
+$3.60
+15.0%
$26.77
+$2.83
+11.8%
$0.77
2.8%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$26.79
+$2.85
+11.9%
$25.85
+$1.91
+8.0%
$0.94
3.5%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Factory New | ƒ 0.0673958
The Overpass 2024 Collection
SMALL WIN
26.7%
$25.66
+$1.72
+7.2%
$25.62
+$1.68
+7.0%
$0.04
0.2%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$24.63
+$0.69
+2.9%
$22.28
-$1.66
-6.9%
$2.35
9.5%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$20.07
-$3.87
-16.1%
$19.85
-$4.09
-17.1%
$0.22
1.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06986149999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 27.535,
"optimistic_value": 27.5,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 26.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:36.386331Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06739579999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 25.661,
"optimistic_value": 25.64,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.0616425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 20.074,
"optimistic_value": 19.92,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 19.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:48:25.579385Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.057532999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:07:49.467766Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.057532999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b2c07f0d72374011c5621a4f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.18,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "514116688948951854",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:07.360011Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "511864723322483685",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:07.360011Z"
},
{
"price": 1.2,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "515242536109144981",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:07.360011Z"
},
{
"price": 1.49,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "625579418033580202",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:07.360011Z"
},
{
"price": 2.24,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "506235389468711544",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:41.495453Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "524249787960700827",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:41.495453Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "494975741580158130",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:07.360011Z"
},
{
"price": 5.24,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "518619491426959096",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:58:00.271803Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:12.136170Z"
},
{
"price": 4.02,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "526500790836642953",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:12.136170Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:8+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 10.0% $7.62 Eye of Zapems 26.7% $4.33 Monster Melt 26.7% $4.11 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $3.60 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $2.67 | $7.62 +103.1% | $4.24 +13.0% | 63.3% | +32.7% | $3.75 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $3.08 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.13 | $9.85 +148.8% | $5.21 +31.5% | 45.0% | +87.1% | $3.96 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 30.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 13.3% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $3.08 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.13 | $9.85 +156.5% | $4.95 +28.9% | 43.3% | +84.9% | $3.84 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 6.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $3.08 Eye of Zapems 6.7% $3.07 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.17 | $9.85 +127.5% | $5.48 +26.6% | 40.0% | +83.1% | $4.33 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 25.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 16.7% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 16.7% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $3.08 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.13 | $9.85 +161.3% | $4.69 +24.4% | 41.7% | +80.6% | $3.77 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 3.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 3.3% $3.08 Eye of Zapems 3.3% $3.07 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.17 | $9.85 +110.0% | $5.75 +22.5% | 45.0% | +79.5% | $4.69 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 20.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 20.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $3.60 Eye of Zapems 20.0% $3.12 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $2.13 | $9.85 +162.7% | $4.53 +20.9% | 40.0% | +72.8% | $3.75 | — |