The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items

Battle-Scarred +13.8%Factory New -13.5%Field-Tested +17.6%Minimal Wear +4.0%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred

Inputs

Metallic Squeezer

3x $0.34

Pipsqueak

3x $0.34

Teal Graf

2x $0.40

Sky Mandala

1x $0.34

Fraise Crane

1x $0.37

↓

Possible Outputs

Exothermic

10.0% $7.57

Eye of Zapems

26.7% $4.33

Monster Melt

26.7% $3.97

Sweet Little Angels

26.7% $3.60

Sleeping Potion

10.0% $2.60

Max Win

$7.57 (+105.7%)

EV (ROI %)

$4.19 (+13.8%)

Win %

63.3%

Volatility

+33.4%

Cost

$3.68

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $3.68

Ask Price EV $4.19 (+13.8%)

Bid Price EV $3.67 (-0.3%)

Ask Profit $0.51 (+13.8%)

Bid Profit $-0.01 (-0.3%)

Liquidity Gap $0.52 (+14.1%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.51

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.01

Risk

Win Probability 63.3%

Loss Probability 36.7%

Best Case $7.57 (+105.7%)

Worst Case $2.60 (-29.3%)

Volatility +33.4%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 10.0%

Avg Win +$1.01

Avg Loss -$0.36

Bottom 5% Outcome $2.60 (-29.3%)

Std Dev $1.23

Avg Norm Float 0.5280

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 15m

Oldest Output Price 129h 33m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Tight

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

MAC-10 | Pipsqueak

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

MAC-10 | Pipsqueak

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.35 Float: HIDDEN

MAC-10 | Pipsqueak

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer

—

Field-Tested

$0.38 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer

—

Field-Tested

$0.39 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

—

Field-Tested

$0.40 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

—

Field-Tested

$0.41 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.37 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 11M 26S //TOTAL COST $3.68 //ASK PRICE EV $4.19 //BID PRICE EV $3.67 //ASK PROFIT $0.51 (+13.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.01 (-0.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 63.3% //BEST CASE $7.57 //VOLATILITY +33.4% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.26666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.44880000000000003,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
      "realistic_value": 4.3335,
      "optimistic_value": 4.19,
      "output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
      "conservative_value": 3.48,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:19:07.725357Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.26666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.43296,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
      "realistic_value": 3.595,
      "optimistic_value": 3.49,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
      "conservative_value": 3.28,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:11:51.877187Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.26666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.396,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
      "realistic_value": 3.9675000000000002,
      "optimistic_value": 3.95,
      "output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
      "conservative_value": 3.48,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T14:41:55.011379Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.3696,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 7.571000000000001,
      "optimistic_value": 7.48,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 7.15,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:41.074809Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.3696,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.6015,
      "optimistic_value": 2.57,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 2.25,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:57.950743Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_b2c07f0d72374011c5621a4f",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
      "listing_id": "507361123687293397",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:03:47.294286Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
      "listing_id": "500605889841006743",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:14:26.297029Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.35,
      "skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
      "listing_id": "517494388633336414",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:14:26.297029Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
      "listing_id": "506235223786636404",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:14:26.297029Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.38,
      "skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
      "listing_id": "497228190141536141",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:15.311467Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.39,
      "skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
      "listing_id": "519746188258421540",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:15.311467Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
      "listing_id": "498354089952881275",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:12:03.783513Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
      "listing_id": "491598638254867202",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:12:03.783513Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "503983589619270235",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:14:47.487960Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "501731789729082221",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:11:31.372348Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:8+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:2"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 10.0% $13.26 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Eye of Zapems 26.7% $10.74 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $10.45 Monster Melt 26.7% $8.66	$13.26 +49.0%	$10.47 +17.6%	73.3%	+15.3%	$8.90	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Eye of Zapems 26.7% $27.54 Exothermic 10.0% $26.79 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $25.66 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $24.63 Monster Melt 26.7% $20.07	$27.54 +16.0%	$24.68 +4.0%	73.3%	+12.3%	$23.73	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $3.04 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.13	$9.85 +150.0%	$5.21 +32.1%	45.0%	+87.6%	$3.94	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 30.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 13.3% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $3.04 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.13	$9.85 +161.3%	$4.94 +31.1%	43.3%	+86.6%	$3.77	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 25.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 16.7% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 16.7% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $3.04 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.13	$9.85 +167.0%	$4.68 +26.9%	41.7%	+82.4%	$3.69	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 20.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 20.0% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 20.0% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $3.04 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $2.13	$9.85 +172.9%	$4.42 +22.5%	40.0%	+76.9%	$3.61	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 5.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $11.82 Eye of Zapems 30.0% $10.74 Sweet Little Angels 30.0% $10.46 Monster Melt 30.0% $8.66	$13.38 +54.4%	$10.22 +17.9%	70.0%	+13.9%	$8.67	—