The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items

Battle-Scarred +13.8%Factory New -13.5%Field-Tested +17.6%Minimal Wear +4.0%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New

Inputs

Wurst Hölle

5x $1.20

Teal Graf

2x $2.18

Metallic Squeezer

1x $5.24

Warm Blooded

1x $2.70

Sky Mandala

1x $3.96

↓

Possible Outputs

Eye of Zapems

26.7% $27.54

Exothermic

10.0% $26.79

Sweet Little Angels

26.7% $25.66

Sleeping Potion

10.0% $24.63

Monster Melt

26.7% $20.07

Max Win

$27.54 (-3.5%)

EV (ROI %)

$24.68 (-13.5%)

Win %

0.0%

Volatility

+10.2%

Cost

$28.52

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $28.52

Ask Price EV $24.68 (-13.5%)

Bid Price EV $24.05 (-15.7%)

Ask Profit $-3.84 (-13.5%)

Bid Profit $-4.47 (-15.7%)

Liquidity Gap $0.64 (+2.2%)

Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.84

Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.47

Risk

Win Probability 0.00%

Loss Probability 100.0%

Best Case $27.54 (-3.5%)

Worst Case $20.07 (-29.6%)

Volatility +10.2%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 26.7%

Avg Win —

Avg Loss -$3.84

Bottom 5% Outcome $20.07 (-29.6%)

Std Dev $2.92

Avg Norm Float 0.0698

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 16m

Oldest Output Price 64h 10m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Nova | Wurst Hölle

—

Minimal Wear

$1.20 Float: HIDDEN

Nova | Wurst Hölle

—

Minimal Wear

$1.49 Float: HIDDEN

Nova | Wurst Hölle

—

Minimal Wear

$1.99 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

—

Factory New

$2.18 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

—

Factory New

$2.34 Float: HIDDEN

Nova | Wurst Hölle

—

Minimal Wear

$2.34 Float: HIDDEN

Nova | Wurst Hölle

—

Factory New

$5.08 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer

—

Factory New

$5.24 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.70 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Factory New

$3.96 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 11M 20S //TOTAL COST $28.52 //ASK PRICE EV $24.68 //BID PRICE EV $24.05 //ASK PROFIT $-3.84 (-13.5%) //BID PROFIT $-4.47 (-15.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $27.54 //VOLATILITY +10.2% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.26666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.059364,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
      "realistic_value": 27.535,
      "optimistic_value": 27.5,
      "output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
      "conservative_value": 26.65,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:20.062672Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.26666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.057268799999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
      "realistic_value": 25.661,
      "optimistic_value": 25.64,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
      "conservative_value": 25.62,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.26666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.052379999999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
      "realistic_value": 20.074,
      "optimistic_value": 19.92,
      "output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
      "conservative_value": 19.85,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:03:53.188119Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.048887999999999994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 26.787,
      "optimistic_value": 26.71,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 25.85,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:42.529770Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.048887999999999994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 24.63,
      "optimistic_value": 24.56,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 22.28,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_b2c07f0d72374011c5621a4f",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 1.2,
      "skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
      "listing_id": "515242536109144981",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:16.044541Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
      "listing_id": "625579418033580202",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:16.044541Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.99,
      "skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
      "listing_id": "515242423033444573",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:16.044541Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
      "listing_id": "490472790737051835",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:37.852688Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
      "listing_id": "524249787960700827",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:37.852688Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
      "listing_id": "494975741580158130",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:16.044541Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.08,
      "skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
      "listing_id": "511864723322312505",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New)",
      "name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:14:30.609442Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.24,
      "skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
      "listing_id": "518619491426959096",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:14:01.945635Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.7,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472625089366055",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.96,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "501731789729270537",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:58.289082Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:8+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:2"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 10.0% $13.26 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Eye of Zapems 26.7% $10.74 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $10.45 Monster Melt 26.7% $8.66	$13.26 +49.0%	$10.47 +17.6%	73.3%	+15.3%	$8.90	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 10.0% $7.57 Eye of Zapems 26.7% $4.33 Monster Melt 26.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $3.60 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $2.60	$7.57 +105.7%	$4.19 +13.8%	63.3%	+33.4%	$3.68	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Eye of Zapems 26.7% $27.54 Exothermic 10.0% $26.79 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $25.66 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $24.63 Monster Melt 26.7% $20.07	$27.54 +16.0%	$24.68 +4.0%	73.3%	+12.3%	$23.73	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $3.04 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.13	$9.85 +150.0%	$5.21 +32.1%	45.0%	+87.6%	$3.94	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 30.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 13.3% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $3.04 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.13	$9.85 +161.3%	$4.94 +31.1%	43.3%	+86.6%	$3.77	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 25.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 16.7% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 16.7% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $3.04 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.13	$9.85 +167.0%	$4.68 +26.9%	41.7%	+82.4%	$3.69	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 20.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 20.0% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 20.0% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $3.04 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $2.13	$9.85 +172.9%	$4.42 +22.5%	40.0%	+76.9%	$3.61	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 5.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $11.82 Eye of Zapems 30.0% $10.74 Sweet Little Angels 30.0% $10.46 Monster Melt 30.0% $8.66	$13.38 +54.4%	$10.22 +17.9%	70.0%	+13.9%	$8.67	—