The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Cobalt Paisley
3x $0.31
Yeti Camo
1x $0.32
Royal Baroque
2x $0.36
Mint Fan
2x $0.39
Reef Grief
1x $1.03
Warm Blooded
1x $0.46
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
5.0% $7.65
Midnight Laminate
45.0% $6.93
Sleeping Potion
5.0% $2.36
Royal Guard
45.0% $1.36
Max Win
$7.65 (+73.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.23 (-4.1%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+63.1%
Cost
$4.41
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.41
Ask Price EV $4.23 (-4.1%)
Bid Price EV $3.52 (-20.3%)
Ask Profit $-0.18 (-4.1%)
Bid Profit $-0.90 (-20.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.72 (+16.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.18
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.90
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $7.65 (+73.5%)
Worst Case $1.36 (-69.2%)
Volatility +63.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$2.59
Avg Loss -$2.95
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.36 (-69.2%)
Std Dev $2.78
Avg Norm Float 0.4458
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 145h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$1.03 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 01M 32S //TOTAL COST $4.41 //ASK PRICE EV $4.23 //BID PRICE EV $3.52 //ASK PROFIT $-0.18 (-4.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.90 (-20.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $7.65 //VOLATILITY +63.1% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
5.0%
$7.65
+$3.24
+73.5%
$6.58
+$2.17
+49.2%
$1.07
14.0%
—
BIG WIN
45.0%
$6.93
+$2.52
+57.2%
$5.76
+$1.35
+30.6%
$1.17
16.9%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$2.36
-$2.05
-46.5%
$2.25
-$2.16
-49.0%
$0.11
4.7%
—
NUKE
45.0%
$1.36
-$3.05
-69.2%
$1.07
-$3.34
-75.7%
$0.29
21.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.3343425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.931,
"optimistic_value": 6.84,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 5.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.267474,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.3575,
"optimistic_value": 1.34,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:44.881028Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.31205299999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.65,
"optimistic_value": 7.51,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:13:33.742714Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.31205299999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.3615,
"optimistic_value": 2.26,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:36.302840Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ac4179c9255a5558509644b4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "525375522204095143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:49.964098Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "492724538182088361",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:17.959730Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "493850490550033732",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:04:42.570162Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "512990789045192927",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:02.478143Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "518620288314033904",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:02.478143Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "510738989040763342",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:04:39.398848Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "503983589619410563",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:04:39.398848Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "503983589619355411",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:55.434619Z"
},
{
"price": 1.03,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "501731789730559517",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:00.114479Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "499479989896979941",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:05.450947Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:9+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 5.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 45.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $2.17 Royal Guard 45.0% $1.36 | $9.85 +185.5% | $4.34 +25.7% | 50.0% | +86.0% | $3.45 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Exothermic 5.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $24.63 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.78 | $38.92 +79.4% | $26.29 +21.2% | 55.0% | +55.0% | $21.69 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $18.08 Exothermic 5.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $11.82 Royal Guard 45.0% $5.45 | $18.08 +77.6% | $11.88 +16.7% | 55.0% | +59.0% | $10.18 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 20.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $2.17 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.36 | $9.85 +164.1% | $4.89 +31.2% | 50.0% | +90.6% | $3.73 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 15.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.17 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.36 | $9.85 +161.3% | $4.71 +24.9% | 50.0% | +86.4% | $3.77 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Exothermic 10.0% $26.56 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $24.63 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.64 | $38.92 +77.7% | $26.14 +19.4% | 60.0% | +51.7% | $21.90 | — |