The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Reef Grief
4x $1.31
Royal Baroque
4x $1.40
Cobalt Paisley
1x $3.65
Earth Mandala
1x $2.30
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
45.0% $38.92
Exothermic
5.0% $26.82
Sleeping Potion
5.0% $24.63
Royal Guard
45.0% $13.78
Max Win
$38.92 (+79.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$26.29 (+21.2%)
Win %
55.0%
Volatility
+55.0%
Cost
$21.69
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $21.69
Ask Price EV $26.29 (+21.2%)
Bid Price EV $23.84 (+9.9%)
Ask Profit $4.60 (+21.2%)
Bid Profit $2.15 (+9.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.45 (+11.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$4.60
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.15
Risk
Win Probability 55.0%
Loss Probability 45.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+79.4%)
Worst Case $13.78 (-36.5%)
Volatility +55.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 45.0%
Avg Win +$14.83
Avg Loss -$7.91
Bottom 5% Outcome $13.78 (-36.5%)
Std Dev $11.93
Avg Norm Float 0.0932
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 97h 43m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$1.31 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.40 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.57 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$1.68 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.13 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.25 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Factory New
$3.65 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 01M 32S //TOTAL COST $21.69 //ASK PRICE EV $26.29 //BID PRICE EV $23.84 //ASK PROFIT $4.60 (+21.2%) //BID PROFIT $2.15 (+9.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 55.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +55.0% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
45.0%
$38.92
+$17.23
+79.4%
$34.38
+$12.69
+58.5%
$4.54
11.7%
—
WIN
5.0%
$26.82
+$5.13
+23.6%
$25.96
+$4.27
+19.7%
$0.86
3.2%
—
SMALL WIN
5.0%
$24.63
+$2.94
+13.6%
$22.28
+$0.59
+2.7%
$2.35
9.5%
—
LOSS
45.0%
$13.78
-$7.91
-36.5%
$13.24
-$8.45
-39.0%
$0.54
3.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.069885,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.055908,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.782,
"optimistic_value": 13.74,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:42.815080Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.06522599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.8185,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:06.957093Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.06522599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ac4179c9255a5558509644b4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "630083017718303094",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:00.114479Z"
},
{
"price": 1.4,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "498354037509124375",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:25.819945Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:25.819945Z"
},
{
"price": 1.57,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "507361289452175017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:25.819945Z"
},
{
"price": 1.68,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "521997822477172482",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:00.114479Z"
},
{
"price": 2.13,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "525375688037287627",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:49.117025Z"
},
{
"price": 2.25,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "528753387757791297",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:49.117025Z"
},
{
"price": 3.65,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "619949307134804143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:49.810387Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "640216044966789251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:01.299613Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985191545",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.818949Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:9+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 5.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 45.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $2.17 Royal Guard 45.0% $1.36 | $9.85 +185.5% | $4.34 +25.7% | 50.0% | +86.0% | $3.45 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $18.08 Exothermic 5.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $11.82 Royal Guard 45.0% $5.45 | $18.08 +77.6% | $11.88 +16.7% | 55.0% | +59.0% | $10.18 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 20.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $2.17 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.36 | $9.85 +164.1% | $4.89 +31.2% | 50.0% | +90.6% | $3.73 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 15.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.17 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.36 | $9.85 +161.3% | $4.71 +24.9% | 50.0% | +86.4% | $3.77 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Exothermic 10.0% $26.56 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $24.63 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.64 | $38.92 +77.7% | $26.14 +19.4% | 60.0% | +51.7% | $21.90 | — |