The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Mint Fan
3x $0.39
Cobalt Paisley
2x $0.42
Reef Grief
2x $1.03
Royal Baroque
2x $1.20
Warm Blooded
1x $1.26
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
45.0% $18.08
Exothermic
5.0% $13.94
Sleeping Potion
5.0% $11.82
Royal Guard
45.0% $5.45
Max Win
$18.08 (+77.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$11.88 (+16.7%)
Win %
55.0%
Volatility
+59.0%
Cost
$10.18
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $10.18
Ask Price EV $11.88 (+16.7%)
Bid Price EV $10.23 (+0.5%)
Ask Profit $1.70 (+16.7%)
Bid Profit $0.05 (+0.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.64 (+16.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.70
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.05
Risk
Win Probability 55.0%
Loss Probability 45.0%
Best Case $18.08 (+77.6%)
Worst Case $5.45 (-46.5%)
Volatility +59.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 45.0%
Avg Win +$6.95
Avg Loss -$4.73
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.45 (-46.5%)
Std Dev $6.01
Avg Norm Float 0.2000
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 144h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$1.03 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$1.04 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Minimal Wear
$1.10 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$1.15 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Minimal Wear
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.20 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.40 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.26 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 01M 11S //TOTAL COST $10.18 //ASK PRICE EV $11.88 //BID PRICE EV $10.23 //ASK PROFIT $1.70 (+16.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.05 (+0.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 55.0% //BEST CASE $18.08 //VOLATILITY +59.0% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
45.0%
$18.08
+$7.90
+77.6%
$15.21
+$5.03
+49.4%
$2.87
15.9%
—
WIN
5.0%
$13.94
+$3.76
+37.0%
$12.11
+$1.93
+19.0%
$1.83
13.1%
—
PAPER WIN
5.0%
$11.82
+$1.64
+16.1%
$9.69
-$0.49
-4.8%
$2.13
18.0%
—
NUKE
45.0%
$5.45
-$4.73
-46.5%
$5.11
-$5.07
-49.8%
$0.34
6.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.14998499999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 18.0765,
"optimistic_value": 17.94,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 15.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:20.243302Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.11998799999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 5.45,
"optimistic_value": 5.24,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 5.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:07:52.974266Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.13998599999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.943000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 13.88,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:41.406383Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.13998599999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 11.8215,
"optimistic_value": 11.79,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ac4179c9255a5558509644b4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "510738989040763342",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:04:39.398848Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "503983589619355411",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:55.434619Z"
},
{
"price": 1.03,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "501731789730559517",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:00.114479Z"
},
{
"price": 1.04,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "492724590626652633",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:00.114479Z"
},
{
"price": 1.1,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "490472790737571063",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:44.198303Z"
},
{
"price": 1.15,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "501731789730493205",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:53.037696Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "625579418032572382",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:44.198303Z"
},
{
"price": 1.2,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "521997988016031990",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:25.819945Z"
},
{
"price": 1.4,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "498354037509124375",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:25.819945Z"
},
{
"price": 1.26,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "510738823413937978",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:46.394240Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:9+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 5.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 45.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $2.17 Royal Guard 45.0% $1.36 | $9.85 +185.5% | $4.34 +25.7% | 50.0% | +86.0% | $3.45 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Exothermic 5.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $24.63 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.78 | $38.92 +79.4% | $26.29 +21.2% | 55.0% | +55.0% | $21.69 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 20.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $2.17 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.36 | $9.85 +164.1% | $4.89 +31.2% | 50.0% | +90.6% | $3.73 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 15.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.17 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.36 | $9.85 +161.3% | $4.71 +24.9% | 50.0% | +86.4% | $3.77 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Exothermic 10.0% $26.56 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $24.63 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.64 | $38.92 +77.7% | $26.14 +19.4% | 60.0% | +51.7% | $21.90 | — |