The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Cobalt Paisley
4x $0.29
Yeti Camo
1x $0.32
Royal Baroque
2x $0.36
Mint Fan
2x $0.39
Warm Blooded
1x $0.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
5.0% $9.85
Midnight Laminate
45.0% $6.94
Sleeping Potion
5.0% $2.17
Royal Guard
45.0% $1.36
Max Win
$9.85 (+185.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.34 (+25.7%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+86.0%
Cost
$3.45
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.45
Ask Price EV $4.34 (+25.7%)
Bid Price EV $3.63 (+5.1%)
Ask Profit $0.89 (+25.7%)
Bid Profit $0.18 (+5.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.71 (+20.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.89
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.18
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $9.85 (+185.5%)
Worst Case $1.36 (-60.7%)
Volatility +86.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$3.78
Avg Loss -$2.01
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.36 (-60.7%)
Std Dev $2.97
Avg Norm Float 0.5779
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 5m
Oldest Output Price 144h 24m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 59S //TOTAL COST $3.45 //ASK PRICE EV $4.34 //BID PRICE EV $3.63 //ASK PROFIT $0.89 (+25.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.18 (+5.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $9.85 //VOLATILITY +86.0% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID
5.0%
$9.85
+$6.40
+185.5%
$6.64
+$3.19
+92.5%
$3.21
32.6%
—
BIG WIN
45.0%
$6.94
+$3.49
+101.3%
$6.03
+$2.58
+74.8%
$0.91
13.2%
—
LOSS
5.0%
$2.17
-$1.28
-37.1%
$1.99
-$1.46
-42.3%
$0.18
8.4%
—
NUKE
45.0%
$1.36
-$2.09
-60.7%
$1.07
-$2.38
-69.0%
$0.29
21.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.43344750000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.9435,
"optimistic_value": 6.8,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 6.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:56:54.599031Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.346758,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.3575,
"optimistic_value": 1.34,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:44.881028Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.404551,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 9.8505,
"optimistic_value": 9.77,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:35.960617Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.404551,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.1715,
"optimistic_value": 2.14,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:55.782048Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ac4179c9255a5558509644b4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "514116688949730030",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:17.669375Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "512990736599751659",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:17.669375Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "525375522204095143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:17.669375Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "492724538182088361",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:48.467459Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "493850490550033732",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:39.967163Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "512990789045192927",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:32.902992Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "518620288314033904",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:32.902992Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "510738989040763342",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:55.364470Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "503983589619410563",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:55.364470Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "510738989040015694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.245152Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:9+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Exothermic 5.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $24.63 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.78 | $38.92 +79.4% | $26.29 +21.2% | 55.0% | +55.0% | $21.69 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $18.08 Exothermic 5.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $11.82 Royal Guard 45.0% $5.45 | $18.08 +77.6% | $11.88 +16.7% | 55.0% | +59.0% | $10.18 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 20.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $2.17 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.36 | $9.85 +167.7% | $4.90 +33.1% | 50.0% | +91.7% | $3.68 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 15.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.17 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.36 | $9.85 +176.7% | $4.71 +32.3% | 50.0% | +91.4% | $3.56 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 10.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $2.15 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.38 | $9.85 +181.4% | $4.53 +29.4% | 50.0% | +88.9% | $3.50 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Midnight Laminate 10.0% $6.94 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.17 Royal Guard 10.0% $1.36 | $9.85 +112.3% | $5.64 +21.5% | 50.0% | +80.4% | $4.64 | — |