The Fever Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Memorial
4x $0.12
Mockingbird
1x $0.27
Aeolian Light
4x $0.25
Grip Tape
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
25.0% $5.85
Trace Lock
25.0% $2.18
Serpent Strike
10.0% $0.77
Control
10.0% $0.77
Wave Breaker
10.0% $0.70
Tosai
10.0% $0.70
Max Win
$5.85 (+153.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.37 (+2.4%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+90.9%
Cost
$2.31
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.31
Ask Price EV $2.37 (+2.4%)
Bid Price EV $2.08 (-10.0%)
Ask Profit $0.06 (+2.4%)
Bid Profit $-0.23 (-10.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.29 (+12.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.06
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.23
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $5.85 (+153.3%)
Worst Case $0.63 (-72.7%)
Volatility +90.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$3.54
Avg Loss -$1.11
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.63 (-72.7%)
Std Dev $2.10
Avg Norm Float 0.4454
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 142h 58m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Well-Worn
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 44S //TOTAL COST $2.31 //ASK PRICE EV $2.37 //BID PRICE EV $2.08 //ASK PROFIT $0.06 (+2.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.23 (-10.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +90.9% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$5.85
+$3.54
+153.3%
$4.91
+$2.60
+112.6%
$0.94
16.1%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$2.18
-$0.13
-5.5%
$2.14
-$0.17
-7.4%
$0.04
2.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.77
-$1.54
-66.5%
$0.66
-$1.65
-71.4%
$0.11
14.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.77
-$1.54
-66.7%
$0.66
-$1.65
-71.4%
$0.11
14.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.70
-$1.61
-69.7%
$0.57
-$1.74
-75.3%
$0.13
18.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.70
-$1.61
-69.7%
$0.69
-$1.62
-70.1%
$0.01
1.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.63
-$1.68
-72.7%
$0.59
-$1.72
-74.5%
$0.04
6.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.33403499999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.311766,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.1835,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:40.425168Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.2538666,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 0.774,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:42.543846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.3558563931,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 0.77,
"optimistic_value": 0.77,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T06:54:02.871108Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.44538,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 0.63,
"optimistic_value": 0.63,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 0.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:19.689619Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.42335551362,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 0.7,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T20:15:52.402148Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.311766,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 0.7,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:14:07.572197Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_aa8c2c2d2804d25d56634b97",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "523123888072535950",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:41.018979Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "525375688037226679",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:05.735927Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "501731789729496833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:05.735927Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "499479937453450165",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:05.735927Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "497228190141910433",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:52.595228Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "526501587737062601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:48.662374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368488724825018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:48.662374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "508487136897723158",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:48.662374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "493850490550151956",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:48.662374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "499479989896498261",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:23.546908Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:5+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.29 Serpent Strike 10.0% $1.54 Tosai 10.0% $1.34 Rising Sun 10.0% $0.79 Control 10.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +211.6% | $4.65 +18.3% | 50.0% | +112.4% | $3.93 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 25.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 25.0% $14.71 Tosai 10.0% $4.32 Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.26 Rising Sun 10.0% $1.80 Control 10.0% $1.67 | $26.93 +161.4% | $11.78 +14.3% | 50.0% | +92.6% | $10.30 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 40.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 40.0% $2.18 Serpent Strike 4.0% $0.77 Control 4.0% $0.70 Tosai 4.0% $0.70 Rising Sun 4.0% $0.69 | $6.12 +119.2% | $3.46 +24.1% | 40.0% | +77.5% | $2.79 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.28 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.45 Tosai 8.0% $1.34 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 Control 8.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +181.5% | $5.36 +23.3% | 30.0% | +103.9% | $4.35 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.52 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.45 Tosai 6.0% $1.39 Rising Sun 6.0% $0.79 Control 6.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +143.9% | $6.18 +23.0% | 35.0% | +89.2% | $5.02 | — |
The Fever Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.29 Serpent Strike 12.0% $1.54 Tosai 12.0% $1.34 Rising Sun 12.0% $0.79 Control 12.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +275.6% | $3.93 +20.5% | 40.0% | +129.1% | $3.26 | — |
The Fever Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.52 Serpent Strike 14.0% $1.45 Tosai 14.0% $1.39 Rising Sun 14.0% $0.79 Control 14.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +346.9% | $3.24 +18.1% | 30.0% | +141.5% | $2.74 | — |
The Fever Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.28 Serpent Strike 2.0% $1.45 Tosai 2.0% $1.34 Rising Sun 2.0% $0.79 Control 2.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +89.6% | $7.54 +16.7% | 45.0% | +65.8% | $6.46 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  30.0% $27.17 Shinobu  23.3% $7.61 K.O. Factory  23.3% $7.00 Searing Rage  23.3% $6.94 | $27.17 +138.8% | $13.18 +15.8% | 30.0% | +80.5% | $11.38 | — |