The Fever Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Memorial
2x $0.14
Mockingbird
2x $0.29
Sure Grip
1x $0.31
Grip Tape
1x $0.42
The Daily Deagle
3x $0.43
Aeolian Light
1x $0.70
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
25.0% $12.25
Trace Lock
25.0% $4.51
Serpent Strike
10.0% $1.55
Tosai
10.0% $1.39
Rising Sun
10.0% $0.79
Control
10.0% $0.77
Max Win
$12.25 (+218.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.71 (+22.4%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+118.9%
Cost
$3.85
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.85
Ask Price EV $4.71 (+22.4%)
Bid Price EV $4.33 (+12.4%)
Ask Profit $0.86 (+22.4%)
Bid Profit $0.48 (+12.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.39 (+10.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.86
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.48
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $12.25 (+218.1%)
Worst Case $0.75 (-80.5%)
Volatility +118.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$4.53
Avg Loss -$2.80
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.75 (-80.5%)
Std Dev $4.58
Avg Norm Float 0.1996
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 142h 16m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 11M 56S //TOTAL COST $3.85 //ASK PRICE EV $4.71 //BID PRICE EV $4.33 //ASK PROFIT $0.86 (+22.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.48 (+12.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $12.25 //VOLATILITY +118.9% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$12.25
+$8.40
+218.1%
$11.36
+$7.51
+195.1%
$0.89
7.2%
—
WIN
25.0%
$4.51
+$0.66
+17.1%
$4.10
+$0.25
+6.5%
$0.41
9.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.55
-$2.30
-59.7%
$1.33
-$2.52
-65.5%
$0.22
14.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.39
-$2.46
-63.9%
$1.20
-$2.65
-68.8%
$0.19
13.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.79
-$3.06
-79.5%
$0.72
-$3.13
-81.3%
$0.07
8.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.77
-$3.08
-80.0%
$0.66
-$3.19
-82.9%
$0.11
14.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.75
-$3.10
-80.5%
$0.70
-$3.15
-81.8%
$0.05
6.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.149715,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.14,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.139734,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.5089999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 4.46,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:25.405946Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11378339999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 1.55,
"optimistic_value": 1.55,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 1.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:50.371775Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.15949538189999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 0.77,
"optimistic_value": 0.77,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T06:54:02.871108Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19962,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 0.7905,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 0.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:22:23.659961Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.18974859138,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 0.75,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:19:43.883510Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.139734,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 1.39,
"optimistic_value": 1.39,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 1.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:17.850320Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_aa8c2c2d2804d25d56634b97",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "501731789729496833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:09:21.964486Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "499479937453450165",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:09:21.964486Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "515242536108342325",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:19:18.821752Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "521997988015702842",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:19:18.821752Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "498354089952752431",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:02.077939Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "507361123687773313",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:44.720257Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "490472625090080439",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:57.071423Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "491598690699020822",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:57.071423Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "606438509297863277",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:57.071423Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "519746188258807568",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:35.251852Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:5+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 25.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 25.0% $14.79 Tosai 10.0% $4.32 Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.28 Rising Sun 10.0% $1.80 Control 10.0% $1.67 | $26.93 +164.2% | $11.80 +15.8% | 50.0% | +93.6% | $10.19 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 25.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.24 Serpent Strike 10.0% $0.77 Tosai 10.0% $0.72 Control 10.0% $0.70 Rising Sun 10.0% $0.69 | $5.85 +172.1% | $2.38 +10.7% | 50.0% | +94.3% | $2.15 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 25.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.24 Serpent Strike 10.0% $0.77 Control 10.0% $0.77 Tosai 10.0% $0.72 Wave Breaker 10.0% $0.70 | $5.85 +162.4% | $2.38 +6.8% | 50.0% | +90.7% | $2.23 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.48 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.55 Tosai 6.0% $1.34 Rising Sun 6.0% $0.79 Control 6.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +146.4% | $6.16 +24.0% | 35.0% | +90.2% | $4.97 | — |
The Fever Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 40.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 40.0% $2.24 Serpent Strike 4.0% $0.77 Tosai 4.0% $0.72 Control 4.0% $0.70 Rising Sun 4.0% $0.69 | $6.12 +116.9% | $3.49 +23.6% | 40.0% | +76.1% | $2.82 | — |
The Fever Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 45.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 45.0% $2.24 Serpent Strike 2.0% $0.77 Control 2.0% $0.70 Tosai 2.0% $0.70 Rising Sun 2.0% $0.69 | $6.12 +96.7% | $3.83 +23.2% | 45.0% | +66.4% | $3.11 | — |
The Fever Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.51 Serpent Strike 12.0% $1.55 Tosai 12.0% $1.34 Rising Sun 12.0% $0.79 Control 12.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +276.8% | $3.97 +22.2% | 40.0% | +129.6% | $3.25 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 30.0% $14.83 Tosai 8.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 8.0% $4.26 Rising Sun 8.0% $1.80 Control 8.0% $1.67 | $26.93 +140.8% | $13.62 +21.8% | 60.0% | +84.9% | $11.18 | — |
The Fever Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.52 Serpent Strike 14.0% $1.45 Tosai 14.0% $1.39 Rising Sun 14.0% $0.79 Control 14.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +346.9% | $3.24 +18.1% | 30.0% | +141.5% | $2.74 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  30.0% $27.17 Shinobu  23.3% $7.61 Searing Rage  23.3% $7.06 K.O. Factory  23.3% $6.69 | $27.17 +142.4% | $13.13 +17.2% | 30.0% | +82.0% | $11.21 | — |