The Fever Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
PC-GRN
3x $0.42
Resupply
1x $0.51
Sure Grip
1x $0.82
Aeolian Light
3x $0.94
The Daily Deagle
1x $1.26
Creep
1x $1.43
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
25.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
25.0% $14.71
Tosai
10.0% $4.32
Serpent Strike
10.0% $4.26
Rising Sun
10.0% $1.80
Control
10.0% $1.67
Max Win
$26.93 (+161.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$11.78 (+14.3%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+97.7%
Cost
$10.30
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $10.30
Ask Price EV $11.78 (+14.3%)
Bid Price EV $11.26 (+9.4%)
Ask Profit $1.48 (+14.3%)
Bid Profit $0.96 (+9.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.51 (+5.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.48
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.96
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+161.4%)
Worst Case $1.61 (-84.3%)
Volatility +97.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$10.52
Avg Loss -$7.57
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.61 (-84.3%)
Std Dev $10.06
Avg Norm Float 0.0933
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 17h 1m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Minimal Wear
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Minimal Wear
$0.57 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.82 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.26 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 44S //TOTAL COST $10.30 //ASK PRICE EV $11.78 //BID PRICE EV $11.26 //ASK PROFIT $1.48 (+14.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.96 (+9.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +97.7% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$26.93
+$16.63
+161.4%
$26.63
+$16.33
+158.5%
$0.30
1.1%
—
WIN
25.0%
$14.71
+$4.41
+42.8%
$13.15
+$2.85
+27.7%
$1.56
10.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.32
-$5.98
-58.1%
$4.30
-$6.00
-58.3%
$0.02
0.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.26
-$6.04
-58.6%
$4.23
-$6.07
-58.9%
$0.03
0.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.80
-$8.50
-82.5%
$1.76
-$8.54
-82.9%
$0.04
2.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.67
-$8.63
-83.8%
$1.35
-$8.95
-86.9%
$0.32
19.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.61
-$8.69
-84.3%
$1.55
-$8.75
-85.0%
$0.06
3.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.0699825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.065317,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 14.7125,
"optimistic_value": 14.66,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:03.653054Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.053186699999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 4.2605,
"optimistic_value": 4.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 4.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:48.519343Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.07455422345,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 1.6669999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 1.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T11:19:36.262895Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09331,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 1.8,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 1.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:33.259506Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.08869572719,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 1.6135000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 1.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:05:00.038073Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.065317,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 4.32,
"optimistic_value": 4.32,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 4.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:54.482976Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_aa8c2c2d2804d25d56634b97",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "510738936594008362",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:34.349715Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "498354089952618619",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:34.349715Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "516368488724860838",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:49.689593Z"
},
{
"price": 0.57,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "528753335313940041",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:34.349715Z"
},
{
"price": 0.82,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "520871291133404964",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:34.551107Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620288313427412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:03.005323Z"
},
{
"price": 1.26,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "499479989895953869",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:23.922651Z"
},
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "507361289453312365",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:43.493041Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "527627487624546116",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:20:01.341140Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "520872088106386248",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:20:01.341140Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:5+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.29 Serpent Strike 10.0% $1.54 Tosai 10.0% $1.34 Rising Sun 10.0% $0.79 Control 10.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +211.6% | $4.65 +18.3% | 50.0% | +112.4% | $3.93 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 25.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.18 Serpent Strike 10.0% $0.77 Control 10.0% $0.77 Wave Breaker 10.0% $0.70 Tosai 10.0% $0.70 | $5.85 +153.3% | $2.37 +2.4% | 25.0% | +87.7% | $2.31 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 40.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 40.0% $2.18 Serpent Strike 4.0% $0.77 Control 4.0% $0.70 Tosai 4.0% $0.70 Rising Sun 4.0% $0.69 | $6.12 +119.2% | $3.46 +24.1% | 40.0% | +77.5% | $2.79 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.28 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.45 Tosai 8.0% $1.34 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 Control 8.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +181.5% | $5.36 +23.3% | 30.0% | +103.9% | $4.35 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.52 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.45 Tosai 6.0% $1.39 Rising Sun 6.0% $0.79 Control 6.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +143.9% | $6.18 +23.0% | 35.0% | +89.2% | $5.02 | — |
The Fever Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.29 Serpent Strike 12.0% $1.54 Tosai 12.0% $1.34 Rising Sun 12.0% $0.79 Control 12.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +275.6% | $3.93 +20.5% | 40.0% | +129.1% | $3.26 | — |
The Fever Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.52 Serpent Strike 14.0% $1.45 Tosai 14.0% $1.39 Rising Sun 14.0% $0.79 Control 14.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +346.9% | $3.24 +18.1% | 30.0% | +141.5% | $2.74 | — |
The Fever Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.28 Serpent Strike 2.0% $1.45 Tosai 2.0% $1.34 Rising Sun 2.0% $0.79 Control 2.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +89.6% | $7.54 +16.7% | 45.0% | +65.8% | $6.46 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  30.0% $27.17 Shinobu  23.3% $7.61 K.O. Factory  23.3% $7.00 Searing Rage  23.3% $6.94 | $27.17 +138.8% | $13.18 +15.8% | 30.0% | +80.5% | $11.38 | — |