The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Slag
1x $0.11
Motorized
1x $0.12
Irezumi
1x $0.13
Light Box
2x $0.14
Pipsqueak
3x $0.34
Wurst Hölle
2x $0.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Monster Melt
16.7% $4.12
Eye of Zapems
16.7% $4.10
Sweet Little Angels
16.7% $4.07
Block-18
10.0% $0.77
Etch Lord
10.0% $0.73
Analog Input
10.0% $0.71
Max Win
$4.12 (+68.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.40 (-1.7%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+69.7%
Cost
$2.44
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.44
Ask Price EV $2.40 (-1.7%)
Bid Price EV $2.30 (-5.8%)
Ask Profit $-0.04 (-1.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.14 (-5.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.10 (+4.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.04
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.14
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $4.12 (+68.9%)
Worst Case $0.61 (-75.0%)
Volatility +69.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$1.66
Avg Loss -$1.74
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.61 (-75.0%)
Std Dev $1.70
Avg Norm Float 0.3881
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 143h 18m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 16M 22S //TOTAL COST $2.44 //ASK PRICE EV $2.40 //BID PRICE EV $2.30 //ASK PROFIT $-0.04 (-1.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.14 (-5.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $4.12 //VOLATILITY +69.7% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.7%
$4.12
+$1.68
+68.9%
$3.94
+$1.50
+61.5%
$0.18
4.4%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$4.10
+$1.66
+68.1%
$4.00
+$1.56
+63.9%
$0.10
2.5%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Field-Tested | ƒ 0.3182502
The Overpass 2024 Collection
BIG WIN
16.7%
$4.07
+$1.63
+66.9%
$4.02
+$1.58
+64.8%
$0.05
1.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.77
-$1.67
-68.4%
$0.71
-$1.73
-70.9%
$0.06
7.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.73
-$1.71
-70.1%
$0.58
-$1.86
-76.2%
$0.15
20.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.71
-$1.73
-71.0%
$0.63
-$1.81
-74.2%
$0.08
10.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.66
-$1.78
-72.8%
$0.57
-$1.87
-76.6%
$0.09
14.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.61
-$1.83
-75.0%
$0.57
-$1.87
-76.6%
$0.04
6.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.3298935,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 4.101,
"optimistic_value": 4.08,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:40.538762Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.3182502,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 4.0735,
"optimistic_value": 4.07,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 4.02,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:55.001241Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.2910825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 4.1205,
"optimistic_value": 4.04,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 3.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:52.339007Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.38811,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 0.664,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T21:43:38.137647Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.26076140625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 0.771,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T22:11:50.072397Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.38811,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 0.73,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 0.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:02:07.825109Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.38811,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 0.6105,
"optimistic_value": 0.6,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:09.324962Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.2401857546,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 0.707,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:03:51.141224Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a905ad20b942800acb04d17b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "520872088107011388",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:10.577488Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "512990789045148143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:03:42.671327Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "510738989040565054",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:23.390552Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "490472738292849795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:11:07.398510Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514115891842488654",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:11:07.398510Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "528753387757469169",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:54.030745Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "517494388633336414",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:54.030745Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "506235223786636404",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:54.030745Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "528753387757470537",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:26.676950Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "524249529997576947",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:26.676950Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:5+collection-set-overpass-2024:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.46 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.50 Block-18 10.0% $1.43 Analog Input 10.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 10.0% $0.80 | $10.72 +159.0% | $5.43 +31.1% | 50.0% | +97.0% | $4.14 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.46 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.50 Etch Lord 10.0% $1.69 Just Smile 10.0% $1.62 Hybrid 10.0% $1.54 | $10.72 +113.2% | $5.68 +13.0% | 50.0% | +75.3% | $5.03 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.46 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.50 Block-18 8.0% $1.48 Analog Input 8.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.80 | $10.72 +122.0% | $6.32 +30.9% | 60.0% | +79.6% | $4.83 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.46 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.50 Block-18 12.0% $1.43 Analog Input 12.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 12.0% $0.80 | $10.72 +207.3% | $4.53 +29.9% | 40.0% | +115.2% | $3.49 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 23.3% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $10.46 Monster Melt 23.3% $8.50 Block-18 6.0% $1.48 Analog Input 6.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.80 | $10.72 +90.2% | $7.22 +27.9% | 70.0% | +62.5% | $5.64 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 10.0% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $10.46 Monster Melt 10.0% $8.50 Block-18 14.0% $1.43 Analog Input 14.0% $1.13 Etch Lord 14.0% $0.77 | $10.72 +266.0% | $3.64 +24.3% | 30.0% | +131.1% | $2.93 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 6.7% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $10.46 Monster Melt 6.7% $8.50 Block-18 16.0% $1.43 Analog Input 16.0% $1.13 Etch Lord 16.0% $0.77 | $10.72 +336.0% | $2.75 +11.8% | 20.0% | +139.3% | $2.46 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Crakow!  10.0% $103.76 Dragon Snore  10.0% $76.65 Black Lotus  26.7% $12.65 Jawbreaker  26.7% $10.85 Olympus  26.7% $7.60 | $103.76 +352.9% | $26.33 +14.9% | 20.0% | +142.1% | $22.91 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | B the Monster  50.0% $1,312.69 Inheritance  25.0% $222.60 Chrome Cannon  25.0% $60.71 | $1,312.69 +120.9% | $727.17 +22.3% | 50.0% | +99.0% | $594.37 | — |