The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Motorized
1x $0.36
Slag
2x $0.41
Light Box
1x $1.70
Dezastre
1x $2.43
Wurst Hölle
2x $1.17
Teal Graf
1x $2.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Eye of Zapems
16.7% $27.45
Sweet Little Angels
16.7% $25.66
Monster Melt
16.7% $20.12
Etch Lord
10.0% $10.86
Just Smile
10.0% $9.45
Hybrid
10.0% $8.10
Max Win
$27.45 (+63.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$15.76 (-6.3%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+54.5%
Cost
$16.83
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $16.83
Ask Price EV $15.76 (-6.3%)
Bid Price EV $15.55 (-7.6%)
Ask Profit $-1.07 (-6.3%)
Bid Profit $-1.28 (-7.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.21 (+1.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.07
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.28
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $27.45 (+63.1%)
Worst Case $2.99 (-82.2%)
Volatility +54.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$7.58
Avg Loss -$9.71
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.99 (-82.2%)
Std Dev $9.18
Avg Norm Float 0.0696
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 27m
Oldest Output Price 68h 16m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Factory New
$1.70 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Factory New
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.43 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Factory New
$2.33 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Factory New
$2.68 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 15M 59S //TOTAL COST $16.83 //ASK PRICE EV $15.76 //BID PRICE EV $15.55 //ASK PROFIT $-1.07 (-6.3%) //BID PROFIT $-1.28 (-7.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $27.45 //VOLATILITY +54.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.7%
$27.45
+$10.62
+63.1%
$26.69
+$9.86
+58.6%
$0.76
2.8%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Factory New | ƒ 0.0570474
The Overpass 2024 Collection
BIG WIN
16.7%
$25.66
+$8.83
+52.5%
$25.62
+$8.79
+52.2%
$0.04
0.2%
—
WIN
16.7%
$20.12
+$3.29
+19.5%
$19.85
+$3.02
+17.9%
$0.27
1.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$10.86
-$5.97
-35.5%
$10.67
-$6.16
-36.6%
$0.19
1.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$9.45
-$7.38
-43.8%
$9.39
-$7.44
-44.2%
$0.06
0.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$8.10
-$8.73
-51.9%
$8.09
-$8.74
-51.9%
$0.01
0.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.18
-$12.65
-75.2%
$4.17
-$12.66
-75.2%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.99
-$13.84
-82.2%
$2.96
-$13.87
-82.4%
$0.03
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.059134500000000007,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 27.4545,
"optimistic_value": 27.43,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 26.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:37.529360Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.057047400000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 25.661,
"optimistic_value": 25.64,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.0521775,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 20.116500000000002,
"optimistic_value": 19.98,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 19.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:55.086717Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06957,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 8.1,
"optimistic_value": 8.1,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 8.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:29.637467Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.046742343750000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.18,
"optimistic_value": 4.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 4.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:24.776143Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06957,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 10.857,
"optimistic_value": 10.78,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 10.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:15.898126Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06957,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.4505,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 9.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:06.532810Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0430540902,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 2.99,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 2.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:05:28.781737Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a905ad20b942800acb04d17b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "493850490549237988",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:58.847342Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "512990736600246983",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:54.105641Z"
},
{
"price": 1.7,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "523123888072340542",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:14.802661Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "506234592363307536",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:49.135923Z"
},
{
"price": 2.43,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "633460645527307573",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:28.372820Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "523123888072288378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:29.882823Z"
},
{
"price": 1.49,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "625579418033580202",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:29.882823Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "490472790737051835",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:46.747644Z"
},
{
"price": 2.33,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "510738989040407230",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:36.110021Z"
},
{
"price": 2.68,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "523123888072619974",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:36.110021Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:5+collection-set-overpass-2024:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.46 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.50 Block-18 10.0% $1.43 Analog Input 10.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 10.0% $0.80 | $10.72 +159.0% | $5.43 +31.1% | 50.0% | +97.0% | $4.14 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.46 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.50 Etch Lord 10.0% $1.69 Just Smile 10.0% $1.62 Hybrid 10.0% $1.54 | $10.72 +113.2% | $5.68 +13.0% | 50.0% | +75.3% | $5.03 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.46 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.50 Block-18 8.0% $1.48 Analog Input 8.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.80 | $10.72 +122.0% | $6.32 +30.9% | 60.0% | +79.6% | $4.83 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.46 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.50 Block-18 12.0% $1.43 Analog Input 12.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 12.0% $0.80 | $10.72 +207.3% | $4.53 +29.9% | 40.0% | +115.2% | $3.49 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 23.3% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $10.46 Monster Melt 23.3% $8.50 Block-18 6.0% $1.48 Analog Input 6.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.80 | $10.72 +90.2% | $7.22 +27.9% | 70.0% | +62.5% | $5.64 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 10.0% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $10.46 Monster Melt 10.0% $8.50 Block-18 14.0% $1.43 Analog Input 14.0% $1.13 Etch Lord 14.0% $0.77 | $10.72 +266.0% | $3.64 +24.3% | 30.0% | +131.1% | $2.93 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 6.7% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $10.46 Monster Melt 6.7% $8.50 Block-18 16.0% $1.43 Analog Input 16.0% $1.13 Etch Lord 16.0% $0.77 | $10.72 +336.0% | $2.75 +11.8% | 20.0% | +139.3% | $2.46 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Crakow!  10.0% $103.76 Dragon Snore  10.0% $76.65 Black Lotus  26.7% $12.65 Jawbreaker  26.7% $10.85 Olympus  26.7% $7.60 | $103.76 +352.9% | $26.33 +14.9% | 20.0% | +142.1% | $22.91 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | B the Monster  50.0% $1,312.69 Inheritance  25.0% $222.60 Chrome Cannon  25.0% $60.71 | $1,312.69 +120.9% | $727.17 +22.3% | 50.0% | +99.0% | $594.37 | — |