The Spectrum Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified MW ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Emerald Poison Dart
2x $4.60
Urban Sovereign
5x $3.19
Amberline
3x $3.52
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
26.7% $126.41
Decimator
6.7% $75.42
Xiangliu
6.7% $38.79
Fever Dream
6.7% $37.04
Kintsugi
26.7% $23.12
Deathgaze
26.7% $21.23
Max Win
$126.41 (+158.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$55.62 (+13.7%)
Win %
33.3%
Volatility
+91.5%
Cost
$48.90
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $48.90
Ask Price EV $55.62 (+13.7%)
Bid Price EV $49.06 (+0.3%)
Ask Profit $6.72 (+13.7%)
Bid Profit $0.16 (+0.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $6.56 (+13.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$6.72
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.16
Risk
Win Probability 33.3%
Loss Probability 66.7%
Best Case $126.41 (+158.5%)
Worst Case $21.23 (-56.6%)
Volatility +91.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 53.3%
Avg Win +$67.31
Avg Loss -$23.58
Bottom 5% Outcome $21.23 (-56.6%)
Std Dev $44.74
Avg Norm Float 0.1497
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 143h 32m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Emerald Poison Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$4.60 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Emerald Poison Dart
—
Factory New
$6.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$3.52 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$4.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.75 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.41 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 44M 37S //TOTAL COST $48.90 //ASK PRICE EV $55.62 //BID PRICE EV $49.06 //ASK PROFIT $6.72 (+13.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.16 (+0.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 33.3% //BEST CASE $126.41 //VOLATILITY +91.5% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$126.41
+$77.51
+158.5%
$112.39
+$63.49
+129.8%
$14.02
11.1%
—
BIG WIN
6.7%
$75.42
+$26.52
+54.2%
$59.80
+$10.90
+22.3%
$15.62
20.7%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$38.79
-$10.11
-20.7%
$31.05
-$17.85
-36.5%
$7.74
19.9%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$37.04
-$11.86
-24.3%
$35.32
-$13.58
-27.8%
$1.72
4.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$23.12
-$25.78
-52.7%
$20.66
-$28.24
-57.8%
$2.46
10.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$21.23
-$27.67
-56.6%
$19.38
-$29.52
-60.4%
$1.85
8.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-16|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-16"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.14965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 126.41149999999999,
"optimistic_value": 124,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 112.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.452841Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.14965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 23.1245,
"optimistic_value": 22.96,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 20.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:44:53.895772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.14965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 21.23,
"optimistic_value": 20.6,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 19.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:45:00.741590Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.0823075,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d85f6159fe4a",
"realistic_value": 37.0405,
"optimistic_value": 36.47,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 35.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-16",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Spectrum Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:16.285685Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d85f6159fe4a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.08380400000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d1f0620f06f3",
"realistic_value": 38.7875,
"optimistic_value": 38,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu",
"conservative_value": 31.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-16",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Spectrum Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T21:11:21.844949Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d1f0620f06f3.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.1272025,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7b3af96bd1e4",
"realistic_value": 75.4195,
"optimistic_value": 74.03,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Decimator",
"conservative_value": 59.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-16",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Spectrum Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:22:35.148424Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b3af96bd1e4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a7d0c3b88406afaaebd1e4a8",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 4.6,
"skin_id": "skin-61f4c5cf38a6",
"listing_id": "506234592359740296",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-16",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Emerald Poison Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-61f4c5cf38a6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:01.996283Z"
},
{
"price": 6.26,
"skin_id": "skin-61f4c5cf38a6",
"listing_id": "505109489447397596",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-16",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Emerald Poison Dart",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-61f4c5cf38a6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:49:35.564770Z"
},
{
"price": 3.19,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "492724590626648601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:44:53.081140Z"
},
{
"price": 3.52,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "497228024527485521",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:45:25.544356Z"
},
{
"price": 4.67,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "508487023588144070",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:45:25.544356Z"
},
{
"price": 4.72,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "493850490550388512",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:44:57.435938Z"
},
{
"price": 4.75,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "521997988014719718",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:44:57.435938Z"
},
{
"price": 5.38,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605837398261191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:44:57.435938Z"
},
{
"price": 5.4,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506235337025176368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:44:57.435938Z"
},
{
"price": 6.41,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "528753387757823085",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:47:18.432179Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-16:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Spectrum Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Decimator 6.7% $156.01 Kintsugi 26.7% $65.51 Deathgaze 26.7% $61.47 Fever Dream 6.7% $55.21 Xiangliu 6.7% $48.80 | $290.04 +197.5% | $128.54 +31.9% | 33.3% | +102.8% | $97.48 | — |
The Spectrum Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $63.86 Decimator 6.7% $43.43 Fever Dream 6.7% $34.78 Xiangliu 6.7% $29.79 Kintsugi 26.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 26.7% $11.91 | $63.86 +121.9% | $30.78 +6.9% | 46.7% | +76.6% | $28.78 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Spectrum Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Decimator 10.0% $156.01 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 Fever Dream 10.0% $55.21 Xiangliu 10.0% $48.80 | $290.04 +197.7% | $123.31 +26.6% | 33.3% | +98.9% | $97.42 | — |
The Spectrum Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Decimator 13.3% $156.01 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 Fever Dream 13.3% $55.21 Xiangliu 13.3% $48.80 | $290.04 +203.9% | $118.07 +23.7% | 33.3% | +96.4% | $95.43 | — |
The Spectrum Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $290.04 Decimator 16.7% $156.01 Kintsugi 16.7% $65.51 Deathgaze 16.7% $61.47 Fever Dream 16.7% $55.21 Xiangliu 16.7% $48.80 | $290.04 +198.8% | $112.84 +16.2% | 33.3% | +89.8% | $97.08 | — |
The Spectrum Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $290.04 Decimator 20.0% $156.01 Kintsugi 13.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 13.3% $61.47 Fever Dream 20.0% $55.21 Xiangliu 20.0% $48.80 | $290.04 +194.6% | $107.61 +9.3% | 33.3% | +82.9% | $98.47 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Spectrum Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing  16.0% $31.66 Crimson Tsunami  4.0% $26.43 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator  16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.92 | $51.27 +152.8% | $23.30 +14.9% | 36.0% | +63.6% | $20.28 | — |
The Spectrum Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Bloodsport  5.0% $598.61 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 Neo-Noir  5.0% $287.71 | $843.46 +54.5% | $642.08 +17.6% | 50.0% | +34.6% | $546.09 | — |