The Spectrum Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified FN ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Emerald Poison Dart
1x $7.50
Scaffold
1x $13.29
Urban Sovereign
7x $4.72
Galigator
1x $7.29
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
26.7% $290.04
Decimator
6.7% $156.01
Kintsugi
26.7% $65.51
Deathgaze
26.7% $61.47
Fever Dream
6.7% $54.44
Xiangliu
6.7% $48.80
Max Win
$290.04 (+199.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$128.49 (+32.7%)
Win %
33.3%
Volatility
+103.6%
Cost
$96.79
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $96.79
Ask Price EV $128.49 (+32.7%)
Bid Price EV $104.81 (+8.3%)
Ask Profit $31.70 (+32.7%)
Bid Profit $8.02 (+8.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $23.68 (+24.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$31.70
Bid Slippage Buffer +$8.02
Risk
Win Probability 33.3%
Loss Probability 66.7%
Best Case $290.04 (+199.7%)
Worst Case $48.80 (-49.6%)
Volatility +103.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 66.7%
Avg Win +$166.45
Avg Loss -$35.68
Bottom 5% Outcome $48.80 (-49.6%)
Std Dev $100.28
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 142h 36m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Emerald Poison Dart
—
Factory New
$7.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Scaffold
—
Factory New
$13.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.75 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.40 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$7.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.50 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$17.66 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 00M 04S //TOTAL COST $96.79 //ASK PRICE EV $128.49 //BID PRICE EV $104.81 //ASK PROFIT $31.70 (+32.7%) //BID PROFIT $8.02 (+8.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 33.3% //BEST CASE $290.04 //VOLATILITY +103.6% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$290.04
+$193.25
+199.7%
$229.11
+$132.32
+136.7%
$60.93
21.0%
—
BIG WIN
6.7%
$156.01
+$59.22
+61.2%
$122.24
+$25.45
+26.3%
$33.77
21.6%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$65.51
-$31.28
-32.3%
$55.11
-$41.68
-43.1%
$10.40
15.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$61.47
-$35.32
-36.5%
$55.38
-$41.41
-42.8%
$6.09
9.9%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$54.44
-$42.35
-43.8%
$48.04
-$48.75
-50.4%
$6.40
11.8%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$48.80
-$47.99
-49.6%
$43.41
-$53.38
-55.2%
$5.39
11.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-16|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-16"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06977,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 290.0445,
"optimistic_value": 279.45,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 229.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:40.031809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06977,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 65.5065,
"optimistic_value": 64.74,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 55.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:31:37.335337Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06977,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 61.465999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 59.66,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 55.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:31:44.183758Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.038373500000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d85f6159fe4a",
"realistic_value": 54.4385,
"optimistic_value": 52.79,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 48.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-16",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Spectrum Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:33:58.908196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d85f6159fe4a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.0390712,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d1f0620f06f3",
"realistic_value": 48.7955,
"optimistic_value": 47.07,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu",
"conservative_value": 43.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-16",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Spectrum Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:26:50.195812Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d1f0620f06f3.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.059304499999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7b3af96bd1e4",
"realistic_value": 156.00799999999998,
"optimistic_value": 153.32,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Decimator",
"conservative_value": 122.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-16",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Spectrum Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:45.023347Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b3af96bd1e4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a7d0c3b88406afaaebd1e4a8",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 7.5,
"skin_id": "skin-61f4c5cf38a6",
"listing_id": "494976224705401386",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-16",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Emerald Poison Dart",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-61f4c5cf38a6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:36:23.884682Z"
},
{
"price": 13.29,
"skin_id": "skin-b0c874f3f971",
"listing_id": "511864723321367793",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-16",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Scaffold (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Scaffold",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b0c874f3f971.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:44:04.912018Z"
},
{
"price": 4.72,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605889840023871",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:31.788881Z"
},
{
"price": 4.75,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "521997988014719718",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:31.788881Z"
},
{
"price": 5.38,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605837398261191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:31.788881Z"
},
{
"price": 5.4,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506235337025176368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:31.788881Z"
},
{
"price": 7.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "524249787960966687",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:29.954532Z"
},
{
"price": 15.3,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "518619491430346084",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:34.463324Z"
},
{
"price": 15.5,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "496101493270757831",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:34.463324Z"
},
{
"price": 17.66,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506234592361187964",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:34.463324Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-16:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Spectrum Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $126.41 Decimator 6.7% $75.42 Xiangliu 6.7% $38.79 Fever Dream 6.7% $37.04 Kintsugi 26.7% $23.12 Deathgaze 26.7% $21.23 | $126.41 +161.1% | $55.62 +14.9% | 33.3% | +92.4% | $48.41 | — |
The Spectrum Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $63.86 Decimator 6.7% $43.43 Fever Dream 6.7% $34.78 Xiangliu 6.7% $29.21 Kintsugi 26.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 26.7% $11.91 | $63.86 +132.8% | $30.74 +12.1% | 46.7% | +80.4% | $27.43 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Spectrum Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $290.04 Decimator 3.3% $156.01 Kintsugi 30.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 30.0% $61.47 Fever Dream 3.3% $54.44 Xiangliu 3.3% $48.80 | $290.04 +191.5% | $133.75 +34.4% | 33.3% | +104.3% | $99.49 | — |
The Spectrum Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Decimator 10.0% $156.01 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 Fever Dream 10.0% $54.44 Xiangliu 10.0% $48.80 | $290.04 +199.8% | $123.23 +27.4% | 33.3% | +99.6% | $96.76 | — |
The Spectrum Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Decimator 13.3% $156.01 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 Fever Dream 13.3% $54.44 Xiangliu 13.3% $48.80 | $290.04 +200.8% | $117.97 +22.4% | 33.3% | +95.5% | $96.41 | — |
The Spectrum Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $290.04 Decimator 16.7% $156.01 Kintsugi 16.7% $65.51 Deathgaze 16.7% $61.47 Fever Dream 16.7% $54.44 Xiangliu 16.7% $48.80 | $290.04 +198.9% | $112.71 +16.1% | 33.3% | +89.9% | $97.05 | — |
The Spectrum Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $290.04 Decimator 20.0% $156.01 Kintsugi 13.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 13.3% $61.47 Fever Dream 20.0% $54.44 Xiangliu 20.0% $48.80 | $290.04 +192.4% | $107.45 +8.3% | 33.3% | +82.4% | $99.18 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Spectrum Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing  18.0% $31.66 Crimson Tsunami  2.0% $26.43 Amberline  18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.92 | $51.27 +154.8% | $24.67 +22.6% | 38.0% | +67.0% | $20.12 | — |
The Spectrum Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Bloodsport  5.0% $598.61 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 Neo-Noir  5.0% $287.71 | $843.46 +54.5% | $642.08 +17.6% | 50.0% | +34.6% | $546.09 | — |