The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Necro Jr.
2x $1.67
Lifted Spirits
1x $2.36
Spirit Board
1x $2.72
Metallic Squeezer
1x $1.03
Wurst Hölle
4x $1.17
Teal Graf
1x $2.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Eye of Zapems
20.0% $27.45
Sweet Little Angels
20.0% $25.66
Monster Melt
20.0% $20.12
Dream Glade
8.0% $8.61
Ticket to Hell
8.0% $4.90
Night Terror
8.0% $3.99
Max Win
$27.45 (+43.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$16.52 (-13.6%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+52.6%
Cost
$19.11
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.11
Ask Price EV $16.52 (-13.6%)
Bid Price EV $16.29 (-14.7%)
Ask Profit $-2.59 (-13.6%)
Bid Profit $-2.82 (-14.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.23 (+1.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.59
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.82
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $27.45 (+43.7%)
Worst Case $2.68 (-86.0%)
Volatility +52.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$5.30
Avg Loss -$14.43
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.68 (-86.0%)
Std Dev $10.05
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 10m
Oldest Output Price 67h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$2.49 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Factory New
$2.72 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Minimal Wear
$1.03 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.99 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$2.01 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 21M 10S //TOTAL COST $19.11 //ASK PRICE EV $16.52 //BID PRICE EV $16.29 //ASK PROFIT $-2.59 (-13.6%) //BID PROFIT $-2.82 (-14.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $27.45 //VOLATILITY +52.6% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
20.0%
$27.45
+$8.34
+43.7%
$26.69
+$7.58
+39.7%
$0.76
2.8%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Factory New | ƒ 0.0573836
The Overpass 2024 Collection
WIN
20.0%
$25.66
+$6.55
+34.3%
$25.62
+$6.51
+34.1%
$0.04
0.2%
—
SMALL WIN
20.0%
$20.12
+$1.01
+5.3%
$19.85
+$0.74
+3.9%
$0.27
1.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$8.61
-$10.50
-55.0%
$8.53
-$10.58
-55.4%
$0.08
0.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.90
-$14.21
-74.3%
$4.89
-$14.22
-74.4%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.99
-$15.12
-79.1%
$3.97
-$15.14
-79.2%
$0.02
0.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.22
-$15.89
-83.2%
$3.19
-$15.92
-83.3%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.68
-$16.43
-86.0%
$2.67
-$16.44
-86.0%
$0.01
0.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.059483,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 27.4545,
"optimistic_value": 27.43,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 26.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:28.595174Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.0573836,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 25.661,
"optimistic_value": 25.64,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.052485000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 20.116500000000002,
"optimistic_value": 19.98,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 19.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:46.916177Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 8.607,
"optimistic_value": 8.6,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 8.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:41.722078Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.048985999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 3.987,
"optimistic_value": 3.98,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:58.816576Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0468866,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 3.22,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 3.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:58:50.445698Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.053184800000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 4.9035,
"optimistic_value": 4.9,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 4.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:19.631446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.03499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.68,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:25.570942Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a20923b46ea68ee9f8ce9ea3",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "490472738292010095",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:58.829564Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "523123091070407086",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:07.390563Z"
},
{
"price": 2.49,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "497228137695537017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:58.829564Z"
},
{
"price": 2.72,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "497228137696833341",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:21.439131Z"
},
{
"price": 1.03,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "596305411430770513",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:57.125359Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "523123888072288378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:43.472647Z"
},
{
"price": 1.49,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "625579418033580202",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:43.472647Z"
},
{
"price": 1.99,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "515242423033444573",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:43.472647Z"
},
{
"price": 2.01,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "507361237008922909",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:43.472647Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "490472790737051835",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:35.722523Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:4+collection-set-overpass-2024:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.44 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.68 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $1.67 Night Terror 8.0% $1.58 Space Cat 8.0% $1.25 | $10.77 +118.5% | $6.49 +31.7% | 60.0% | +75.1% | $4.93 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $4.33 Monster Melt 20.0% $4.12 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $4.05 Night Terror 8.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.97 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $0.96 | $4.33 +64.1% | $2.88 +9.0% | 60.0% | +51.9% | $2.64 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.44 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.68 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $1.67 Dream Glade 8.0% $1.63 Night Terror 8.0% $1.58 | $10.77 +78.6% | $6.55 +8.6% | 60.0% | +60.5% | $6.03 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $4.33 Monster Melt 20.0% $4.12 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $4.05 Night Terror 8.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.97 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $0.96 | $4.33 +63.5% | $2.88 +8.5% | 60.0% | +51.7% | $2.65 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.42 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.68 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $1.67 Night Terror 12.0% $1.58 Space Cat 12.0% $1.25 | $10.77 +205.1% | $4.75 +34.7% | 40.0% | +109.7% | $3.53 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.42 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.68 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $1.67 Night Terror 10.0% $1.58 Space Cat 10.0% $1.25 | $10.77 +157.0% | $5.62 +34.2% | 50.0% | +92.2% | $4.19 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 10.0% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $10.42 Monster Melt 10.0% $8.68 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $1.67 Night Terror 14.0% $1.58 Space Cat 14.0% $1.25 | $10.77 +263.9% | $3.89 +31.3% | 30.0% | +125.1% | $2.96 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 23.3% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $10.42 Monster Melt 23.3% $8.68 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $1.67 Night Terror 6.0% $1.58 Space Cat 6.0% $1.25 | $10.77 +86.7% | $7.36 +27.5% | 70.0% | +58.8% | $5.77 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 6.7% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $10.44 Monster Melt 6.7% $8.68 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $1.67 Night Terror 16.0% $1.58 Space Cat 16.0% $1.25 | $10.77 +322.4% | $3.02 +18.6% | 20.0% | +129.6% | $2.55 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Crakow!  10.0% $103.76 Dragon Snore  10.0% $77.71 Melondrama  26.7% $11.68 Abyssal Apparition  26.7% $11.26 Rapid Eye Movement  26.7% $11.24 | $103.76 +341.5% | $27.26 +16.0% | 20.0% | +137.3% | $23.50 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | B the Monster  50.0% $1,312.69 Starlight Protector  25.0% $179.19 Nightwish  25.0% $117.09 | $1,312.69 +116.6% | $730.41 +20.5% | 50.0% | +96.1% | $606.08 | — |