The Winter Offensive Collection ×3+The Revolution Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Cobalt Halftone
3x $1.44
Fragments
4x $0.27
Cyberforce
2x $0.34
Liquidation
1x $0.49
↓
Possible Outputs
Pulse
7.5% $32.56
Rose Iron
7.5% $26.74
Marina
7.5% $20.28
Rising Skull
7.5% $15.40
Emphorosaur-S
14.0% $4.12
Umbral Rabbit
14.0% $3.08
Max Win
$32.56 (+319.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.94 (+15.1%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+133.2%
Cost
$7.77
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.77
Ask Price EV $8.94 (+15.1%)
Bid Price EV $7.91 (+1.8%)
Ask Profit $1.17 (+15.1%)
Bid Profit $0.14 (+1.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.03 (+13.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.17
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.14
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $32.56 (+319.0%)
Worst Case $1.41 (-81.9%)
Volatility +133.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$15.97
Avg Loss -$5.17
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.41 (-81.9%)
Std Dev $10.35
Avg Norm Float 0.1481
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 147h 58m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone
—
Field-Tested
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone
—
Field-Tested
$1.61 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$2.09 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Liquidation
—
Minimal Wear
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Minimal Wear
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 59M 43S //TOTAL COST $7.77 //ASK PRICE EV $8.94 //BID PRICE EV $7.91 //ASK PROFIT $1.17 (+15.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.14 (+1.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $32.56 //VOLATILITY +133.2% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
7.5%
$32.56
+$24.79
+319.0%
$28.86
+$21.09
+271.4%
$3.70
11.4%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$26.74
+$18.97
+244.1%
$25.62
+$17.85
+229.7%
$1.11
4.2%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$20.28
+$12.51
+161.1%
$16.99
+$9.22
+118.7%
$3.29
16.2%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$15.40
+$7.63
+98.2%
$12.78
+$5.01
+64.5%
$2.62
17.0%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$4.12
-$3.65
-47.0%
$3.56
-$4.21
-54.2%
$0.56
13.5%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$3.08
-$4.69
-60.3%
$2.72
-$5.05
-65.0%
$0.36
11.7%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.65
-$5.12
-65.8%
$2.41
-$5.36
-69.0%
$0.24
9.2%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.73
-$6.04
-77.8%
$1.46
-$6.31
-81.2%
$0.27
15.5%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.41
-$6.36
-81.9%
$1.21
-$6.56
-84.4%
$0.20
14.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-1|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.11105999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 3.081,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 2.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T02:21:55.223530Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.118464,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 4.1175,
"optimistic_value": 4.1,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 3.56,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:22:44.557721Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.2958864,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 2.6535,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 2.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T22:36:48.873772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.088848,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 1.41,
"optimistic_value": 1.41,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 1.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Neoqueen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:43:21.340339Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14808,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 1.7269999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 1.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:54:58.935941Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.116636,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6c5c32b4624e",
"realistic_value": 20.2845,
"optimistic_value": 19,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Marina",
"conservative_value": 16.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T12:33:05.612211Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6c5c32b4624e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.059232,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2930dffc8ea9",
"realistic_value": 32.5565,
"optimistic_value": 32,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Pulse",
"conservative_value": 28.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T13:26:40.240614Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2930dffc8ea9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.044424,
"output_skin_id": "skin-65b73b6b9f0a",
"realistic_value": 26.735,
"optimistic_value": 26,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Rose Iron",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T01:09:10.927906Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-65b73b6b9f0a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.07404,
"output_skin_id": "skin-88e63f9b34df",
"realistic_value": 15.3995,
"optimistic_value": 14.5,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Skull",
"conservative_value": 12.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:09.297866Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-88e63f9b34df.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_9754c7d2cb95b195f4e86b36",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-8ba5e5f3632f",
"listing_id": "506235337024851072",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ba5e5f3632f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:21.995775Z"
},
{
"price": 1.61,
"skin_id": "skin-8ba5e5f3632f",
"listing_id": "529878490346617320",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ba5e5f3632f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:21.995775Z"
},
{
"price": 2.09,
"skin_id": "skin-8ba5e5f3632f",
"listing_id": "500605092729912719",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ba5e5f3632f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:10.655195Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "515242588555261033",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:55.844926Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "499479989896449373",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:55.844926Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "658230515398900238",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:55.844926Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "516368488725172886",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:55.844926Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "519746241188332448",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:00:17.202406Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-d87f89df4191",
"listing_id": "502857637416920044",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Liquidation",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d87f89df4191.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:26.350463Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "524249787961735143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:00:17.202406Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-1:3+collection-set-community-32:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Winter Offensive Collection ×3+The Revolution Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Pulse 7.5% $32.56 Rose Iron 7.5% $26.74 Marina 7.5% $20.28 Rising Skull 7.5% $15.40 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 14.0% $3.08 | $32.56 +372.5% | $8.82 +28.0% | 30.0% | +135.5% | $6.89 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Winter Offensive Collection ×2+The Revolution Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Rose Iron 5.0% $26.74 Pulse 5.0% $23.40 Marina 5.0% $20.28 Rising Skull 5.0% $15.60 Emphorosaur-S 16.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 16.0% $3.08 | $26.74 +445.6% | $6.24 +27.3% | 20.0% | +147.6% | $4.90 | — |
The Winter Offensive Collection ×4+The Revolution Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Pulse 10.0% $32.56 Rose Iron 10.0% $26.74 Marina 10.0% $20.28 Rising Skull 10.0% $15.40 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $3.08 | $32.56 +263.8% | $10.95 +22.4% | 40.0% | +109.1% | $8.95 | — |
The Winter Offensive Collection ×5+The Revolution Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Pulse 12.5% $32.56 Rose Iron 12.5% $26.74 Marina 12.5% $20.28 Rising Skull 12.5% $15.40 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $3.08 | $32.56 +199.0% | $13.08 +20.1% | 50.0% | +89.9% | $10.89 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Winter Offensive Collection ×3+The Revolution Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Asiimov  15.0% $806.35 The Kraken  15.0% $227.80 Temukau  35.0% $52.74 Head Shot  35.0% $46.53 | $806.35 +344.6% | $189.87 +4.7% | 30.0% | +146.9% | $181.36 | — |