The Winter Offensive Collection ×3+The Revolution Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Sandstorm
1x $2.50
Magma
1x $4.72
Cobalt Halftone
1x $6.00
Liquidation
1x $0.49
Cyberforce
3x $1.42
Featherweight
1x $1.51
↓
Possible Outputs
Marina
7.5% $83.80
Pulse
7.5% $32.56
Rose Iron
7.5% $26.74
Rising Skull
7.5% $19.65
Emphorosaur-S
14.0% $11.80
Banana Cannon
14.0% $8.11
Max Win
$83.80 (+255.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$16.80 (-28.7%)
Win %
22.5%
Volatility
+89.5%
Cost
$23.56
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $23.56
Ask Price EV $16.80 (-28.7%)
Bid Price EV $14.00 (-40.6%)
Ask Profit $-6.76 (-28.7%)
Bid Profit $-9.56 (-40.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.80 (+11.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$6.76
Bid Slippage Buffer -$9.56
Risk
Win Probability 22.5%
Loss Probability 77.5%
Best Case $83.80 (+255.7%)
Worst Case $2.65 (-88.7%)
Volatility +89.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$24.14
Avg Loss -$15.74
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.65 (-88.7%)
Std Dev $21.08
Avg Norm Float 0.0444
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 144h 50m
Oldest Output Price 148h 26m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Sandstorm
—
Field-Tested
$2.50 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Magma
—
Factory New
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone
—
Factory New
$6.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Liquidation
—
Minimal Wear
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Factory New
$1.42 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Featherweight
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Factory New
$1.62 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Factory New
$1.66 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Factory New
$1.76 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Factory New
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 59M 43S //TOTAL COST $23.56 //ASK PRICE EV $16.80 //BID PRICE EV $14.00 //ASK PROFIT $-6.76 (-28.7%) //BID PROFIT $-9.56 (-40.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 22.5% //BEST CASE $83.80 //VOLATILITY +89.5% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$83.80
+$60.24
+255.7%
$60.65
+$37.09
+157.4%
$23.15
27.6%
—
WIN
7.5%
$32.56
+$9.00
+38.2%
$28.86
+$5.30
+22.5%
$3.70
11.4%
—
SMALL WIN
7.5%
$26.74
+$3.18
+13.5%
$25.62
+$2.06
+8.7%
$1.11
4.2%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$19.65
-$3.91
-16.6%
$18.26
-$5.30
-22.5%
$1.39
7.1%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$11.80
-$11.76
-49.9%
$10.16
-$13.40
-56.9%
$1.64
13.9%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$8.11
-$15.45
-65.6%
$6.70
-$16.86
-71.6%
$1.41
17.3%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$6.89
-$16.67
-70.7%
$6.18
-$17.38
-73.8%
$0.71
10.3%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$3.33
-$20.23
-85.9%
$3.08
-$20.48
-86.9%
$0.25
7.5%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.65
-$20.91
-88.7%
$2.41
-$21.15
-89.8%
$0.24
9.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-1|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0332625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 6.893,
"optimistic_value": 6.62,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:08:39.032495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.035480000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 11.804499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 11.5,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 10.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:46.328444Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.235723,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 2.6535,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 2.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T22:36:48.873772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.026609999999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 3.331,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:54:58.997849Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04435,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 8.105,
"optimistic_value": 8,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 6.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:02:59.318858Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.0699575,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6c5c32b4624e",
"realistic_value": 83.803,
"optimistic_value": 82.27,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Marina",
"conservative_value": 60.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:08.641099Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6c5c32b4624e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.017740000000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2930dffc8ea9",
"realistic_value": 32.5565,
"optimistic_value": 32,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Pulse",
"conservative_value": 28.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T13:26:40.240614Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2930dffc8ea9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.013304999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-65b73b6b9f0a",
"realistic_value": 26.735,
"optimistic_value": 26,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Rose Iron",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T01:09:10.927906Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-65b73b6b9f0a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.022175,
"output_skin_id": "skin-88e63f9b34df",
"realistic_value": 19.648500000000002,
"optimistic_value": 18.42,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Skull",
"conservative_value": 18.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:12:17.513136Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-88e63f9b34df.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_9754c7d2cb95b195f4e86b36",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.5,
"skin_id": "skin-4a48af339615",
"listing_id": "490471993863380727",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Sandstorm (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sandstorm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4a48af339615.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:39.471685Z"
},
{
"price": 4.72,
"skin_id": "skin-3f7f4a9702ef",
"listing_id": "527626690808311316",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Magma (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Magma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3f7f4a9702ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:02:37.444631Z"
},
{
"price": 6,
"skin_id": "skin-8ba5e5f3632f",
"listing_id": "635710542415065769",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ba5e5f3632f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T08:30:35.770443Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-d87f89df4191",
"listing_id": "502857637416920044",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Liquidation",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d87f89df4191.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:26.350463Z"
},
{
"price": 1.42,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "525375688037147803",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:24.409886Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-2f564d56b7ff",
"listing_id": "496102290328688171",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Featherweight (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Featherweight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f564d56b7ff.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:20.816757Z"
},
{
"price": 1.62,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "515242536108339913",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:24.409886Z"
},
{
"price": 1.66,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "526501587738420413",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:24.409886Z"
},
{
"price": 1.76,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "515241791644842529",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:23.105832Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "496102237882665215",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:08:44.638906Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-1:3+collection-set-community-32:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Winter Offensive Collection ×3+The Revolution Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Pulse 7.5% $32.56 Rose Iron 7.5% $26.74 Marina 7.5% $20.28 Rising Skull 7.5% $15.40 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 14.0% $3.08 | $32.56 +372.5% | $8.82 +28.0% | 30.0% | +135.5% | $6.89 | — |
The Winter Offensive Collection ×3+The Revolution Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Pulse 7.5% $32.56 Rose Iron 7.5% $26.74 Marina 7.5% $20.28 Rising Skull 7.5% $15.40 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 14.0% $3.08 | $32.56 +319.0% | $8.94 +15.1% | 30.0% | +119.6% | $7.77 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Winter Offensive Collection ×2+The Revolution Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Rose Iron 5.0% $26.74 Pulse 5.0% $23.40 Marina 5.0% $20.28 Rising Skull 5.0% $15.60 Emphorosaur-S 16.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 16.0% $3.08 | $26.74 +445.6% | $6.24 +27.3% | 20.0% | +147.6% | $4.90 | — |
The Winter Offensive Collection ×4+The Revolution Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Pulse 10.0% $32.56 Rose Iron 10.0% $26.74 Marina 10.0% $20.28 Rising Skull 10.0% $15.40 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $3.08 | $32.56 +263.8% | $10.95 +22.4% | 40.0% | +109.1% | $8.95 | — |
The Winter Offensive Collection ×5+The Revolution Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Pulse 12.5% $32.56 Rose Iron 12.5% $26.74 Marina 12.5% $20.28 Rising Skull 12.5% $15.40 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $3.08 | $32.56 +199.0% | $13.08 +20.1% | 50.0% | +89.9% | $10.89 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Winter Offensive Collection ×3+The Revolution Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Asiimov  15.0% $806.35 The Kraken  15.0% $227.80 Temukau  35.0% $52.74 Head Shot  35.0% $46.53 | $806.35 +344.6% | $189.87 +4.7% | 30.0% | +146.9% | $181.36 | — |