The Winter Offensive Collection ×3+The Revolution Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested StatTrak™
Inputs
Cobalt Halftone
3x $1.44
Re.built
1x $0.17
Fragments
4x $0.30
Insomnia
1x $0.34
Cyberforce
1x $0.37
↓
Possible Outputs
Pulse
7.5% $32.56
Rose Iron
7.5% $26.74
Marina
7.5% $20.28
Rising Skull
7.5% $15.40
Emphorosaur-S
14.0% $4.12
Umbral Rabbit
14.0% $3.08
Max Win
$32.56 (+382.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.81 (+30.5%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+154.8%
Cost
$6.75
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.75
Ask Price EV $8.81 (+30.5%)
Bid Price EV $7.81 (+15.7%)
Ask Profit $2.06 (+30.5%)
Bid Profit $1.06 (+15.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.00 (+14.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.06
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.06
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $32.56 (+382.3%)
Worst Case $0.85 (-87.4%)
Volatility +154.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$16.99
Avg Loss -$4.34
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.85 (-87.4%)
Std Dev $10.45
Avg Norm Float 0.1744
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 146h 44m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone
—
Field-Tested
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone
—
Field-Tested
$1.50 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone
—
Field-Tested
$1.61 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Insomnia
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 43M 20S //TOTAL COST $6.75 //ASK PRICE EV $8.81 //BID PRICE EV $7.81 //ASK PROFIT $2.06 (+30.5%) //BID PROFIT $1.06 (+15.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $32.56 //VOLATILITY +154.8% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$32.56
+$25.81
+382.3%
$28.86
+$22.11
+327.6%
$3.70
11.4%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$26.74
+$19.99
+296.1%
$25.62
+$18.87
+279.6%
$1.11
4.2%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$20.28
+$13.53
+200.5%
$16.99
+$10.24
+151.7%
$3.29
16.2%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$15.40
+$8.65
+128.1%
$12.78
+$6.03
+89.3%
$2.62
17.0%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$4.12
-$2.63
-39.0%
$3.56
-$3.19
-47.3%
$0.56
13.5%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$3.08
-$3.67
-54.4%
$2.72
-$4.03
-59.7%
$0.36
11.7%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.65
-$4.10
-60.7%
$2.41
-$4.34
-64.3%
$0.24
9.2%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.36
-$5.39
-79.8%
$1.21
-$5.54
-82.1%
$0.15
11.3%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.85
-$5.90
-87.4%
$0.76
-$5.99
-88.7%
$0.09
10.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-1|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.13079249999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 3.081,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 2.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T02:21:55.223530Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.139512,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 4.1175,
"optimistic_value": 4.1,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 3.56,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:22:44.557721Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.3111462,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 2.6535,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 2.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T22:36:48.873772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.10463399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 1.3645,
"optimistic_value": 1.34,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 1.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Neoqueen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:56:50.412989Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.17439,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 0.8474999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.83,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 0.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:44:21.681226Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.12847550000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6c5c32b4624e",
"realistic_value": 20.2845,
"optimistic_value": 19,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Marina",
"conservative_value": 16.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T12:33:05.612211Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6c5c32b4624e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.069756,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2930dffc8ea9",
"realistic_value": 32.5565,
"optimistic_value": 32,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Pulse",
"conservative_value": 28.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T13:26:40.240614Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2930dffc8ea9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.052316999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-65b73b6b9f0a",
"realistic_value": 26.735,
"optimistic_value": 26,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Rose Iron",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T01:09:10.927906Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-65b73b6b9f0a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.087195,
"output_skin_id": "skin-88e63f9b34df",
"realistic_value": 15.3995,
"optimistic_value": 14.5,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Skull",
"conservative_value": 12.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:32.190789Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-88e63f9b34df.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_9754c7d2cb95b195f4e86b36",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-8ba5e5f3632f",
"listing_id": "506235337024851072",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ba5e5f3632f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:44.185387Z"
},
{
"price": 1.5,
"skin_id": "skin-8ba5e5f3632f",
"listing_id": "499479193127014825",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ba5e5f3632f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:44.185387Z"
},
{
"price": 1.61,
"skin_id": "skin-8ba5e5f3632f",
"listing_id": "529878490346617320",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ba5e5f3632f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:44.185387Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "642467916647706593",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Re.built (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:15.724099Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "499479989896449373",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:08.864397Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "658230515398900238",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:08.864397Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "516368488725172886",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:08.864397Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e6a7543c4187",
"listing_id": "515241791650778785",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Insomnia (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Insomnia",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e6a7543c4187.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:25.987414Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "503982792710309731",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:08.864397Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "502857689861700028",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:41.975459Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-1:3+collection-set-community-32:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Winter Offensive Collection ×3+The Revolution Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Pulse 7.5% $32.56 Rose Iron 7.5% $26.74 Marina 7.5% $20.28 Rising Skull 7.5% $15.40 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 14.0% $3.08 | $32.56 +337.6% | $8.94 +20.1% | 30.0% | +125.0% | $7.44 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Winter Offensive Collection ×2+The Revolution Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Pulse 5.0% $32.56 Rose Iron 5.0% $26.74 Marina 5.0% $20.28 Rising Skull 5.0% $15.40 Emphorosaur-S 16.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 16.0% $3.08 | $32.56 +537.1% | $6.69 +30.9% | 20.0% | +163.4% | $5.11 | — |
The Winter Offensive Collection ×4+The Revolution Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Pulse 10.0% $32.56 Rose Iron 10.0% $26.74 Marina 10.0% $20.28 Rising Skull 10.0% $15.40 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $3.08 | $32.56 +278.6% | $10.95 +27.3% | 40.0% | +113.5% | $8.60 | — |
The Winter Offensive Collection ×5+The Revolution Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Pulse 12.5% $32.56 Rose Iron 12.5% $26.74 Marina 12.5% $20.28 Rising Skull 12.5% $15.40 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $3.08 | $32.56 +201.4% | $13.08 +21.1% | 50.0% | +90.7% | $10.80 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Winter Offensive Collection ×3+The Revolution Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Asiimov  15.0% $806.35 The Kraken  15.0% $227.80 Temukau  35.0% $52.74 Head Shot  35.0% $46.53 | $806.35 +347.2% | $189.87 +5.3% | 30.0% | +147.8% | $180.33 | — |