The CS20 Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn StatTrak™
Inputs
Popdog
1x $0.28
Classic Crate
1x $0.30
Fragment
4x $0.29
RMX
3x $0.36
Bock Blocks
1x $0.42
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
16.0% $7.45
Firebreathing
16.0% $3.97
Urban Sovereign
16.0% $2.69
Galigator
16.0% $2.39
Buddy
4.0% $2.25
Amberline
16.0% $2.24
Max Win
$7.45 (+121.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.34 (-0.8%)
Win %
32.0%
Volatility
+57.2%
Cost
$3.37
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.37
Ask Price EV $3.34 (-0.8%)
Bid Price EV $2.82 (-16.3%)
Ask Profit $-0.03 (-0.8%)
Bid Profit $-0.55 (-16.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.52 (+15.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.03
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.55
Risk
Win Probability 32.0%
Loss Probability 68.0%
Best Case $7.45 (+121.1%)
Worst Case $1.37 (-59.4%)
Volatility +57.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 52.0%
Avg Win +$2.34
Avg Loss -$1.14
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.46 (-56.6%)
Std Dev $1.93
Avg Norm Float 0.4481
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 9m
Oldest Output Price 155h 6m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAG-7 | Popdog
—
Field-Tested
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Classic Crate
—
Field-Tested
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 07S //TOTAL COST $3.37 //ASK PRICE EV $3.34 //BID PRICE EV $2.82 //ASK PROFIT $-0.03 (-0.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.55 (-16.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 32.0% //BEST CASE $7.45 //VOLATILITY +57.2% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID
16.0%
$7.45
+$4.08
+121.1%
$5.07
+$1.70
+50.4%
$2.38
32.0%
—
WIN
16.0%
$3.97
+$0.60
+17.9%
$3.63
+$0.26
+7.7%
$0.34
8.7%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$2.69
-$0.68
-20.2%
$2.67
-$0.70
-20.8%
$0.02
0.8%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$2.39
-$0.98
-29.1%
$2.19
-$1.18
-35.0%
$0.20
8.4%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$2.25
-$1.12
-33.1%
$1.92
-$1.45
-43.0%
$0.33
14.8%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$2.24
-$1.13
-33.4%
$2.21
-$1.16
-34.4%
$0.03
1.5%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.85
-$1.52
-45.0%
$1.70
-$1.67
-49.6%
$0.15
8.2%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.65
-$1.72
-51.1%
$1.29
-$2.08
-61.7%
$0.36
21.7%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.46
-$1.91
-56.6%
$1.24
-$2.13
-63.2%
$0.22
15.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.37
-$2.00
-59.4%
$1.28
-$2.09
-62.0%
$0.09
6.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-24|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-24"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.44805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 3.9739999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 3.96,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.825383Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.44805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.3905,
"optimistic_value": 2.38,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 2.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:57.054699Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.44805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 7.452,
"optimistic_value": 7.41,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:43.814170Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.44805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 2.2435,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 2.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:07.650147Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.44805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 2.6905,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.487183Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.24642750000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-31de22ad9746",
"realistic_value": 2.2544999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 2.23,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Buddy",
"conservative_value": 1.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The CS20 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Buddy (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:23.274333Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-31de22ad9746.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.3360375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ca39d6a9fe2",
"realistic_value": 1.464,
"optimistic_value": 1.45,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Aztec",
"conservative_value": 1.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The CS20 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Aztec (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:36.199489Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ca39d6a9fe2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.44805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4ef86547d990",
"realistic_value": 1.6469999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.64,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Agent",
"conservative_value": 1.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The CS20 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Agent (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:26:57.417680Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4ef86547d990.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.304674,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5bcef416d83b",
"realistic_value": 1.8525,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Inferno",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The CS20 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:09.006931Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5bcef416d83b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.35844000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-520d7a1ce647",
"realistic_value": 1.3675,
"optimistic_value": 1.35,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Plastique",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The CS20 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Plastique (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:13.415872Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-520d7a1ce647.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_96c3f2069626251425db9e31",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-25cbd4e0e058",
"listing_id": "514116523133848254",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Popdog (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Popdog",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25cbd4e0e058.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:26.806782Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-d136bb4f23cb",
"listing_id": "517494388633386382",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Classic Crate (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Classic Crate",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d136bb4f23cb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:14.193255Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "528753387758395233",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:22.466070Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "499479989897464717",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:22.466070Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "529879340432903412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:22.466070Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "506235389470454088",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:22.466070Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "527627487625008320",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:32.527360Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "503983589619721927",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:32.527360Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "506235389469140196",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:32.527360Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "498354142900989031",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:38.533199Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-24:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The CS20 Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Agent 4.0% $29.05 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator 16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.57 | $51.27 +181.9% | $23.36 +28.4% | 52.0% | +71.3% | $18.19 | — |
The CS20 Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 16.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 16.0% $6.12 Galigator 16.0% $3.49 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $2.98 Amberline 16.0% $2.84 Agent 4.0% $2.67 | $10.69 +192.2% | $4.56 +24.7% | 32.0% | +75.3% | $3.66 | — |
The CS20 Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 16.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 16.0% $10.78 Amberline 16.0% $6.01 Agent 4.0% $5.44 Galigator 16.0% $5.43 Buddy 4.0% $5.28 | $16.94 +122.8% | $7.87 +3.6% | 32.0% | +53.5% | $7.60 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The CS20 Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Agent 2.0% $29.05 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.57 | $51.27 +165.8% | $24.67 +27.9% | 38.0% | +70.2% | $19.29 | — |
The CS20 Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Agent 6.0% $29.05 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $13.57 | $51.27 +194.2% | $22.05 +26.5% | 48.0% | +71.4% | $17.43 | — |
The CS20 Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Agent 8.0% $29.05 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $13.85 | $51.27 +202.3% | $20.77 +22.5% | 44.0% | +70.3% | $16.96 | — |
The CS20 Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 10.0% $31.66 Agent 10.0% $29.05 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator 10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $13.57 | $51.27 +206.1% | $19.43 +16.0% | 40.0% | +68.5% | $16.75 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The CS20 Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight  30.0% $290.04 Hydra  3.3% $109.82 Kintsugi  30.0% $60.46 Deathgaze  30.0% $58.67 Nostalgia  3.3% $38.84 Death by Puppy  3.3% $28.84 | $290.04 +192.2% | $128.67 +29.6% | 33.3% | +107.0% | $99.27 | — |
The CS20 Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 Wildfire  5.0% $484.63 Commemoration  5.0% $117.77 | $843.46 +59.2% | $627.88 +18.5% | 45.0% | +39.7% | $529.72 | — |